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2019 federal election - general discussion


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#41 Mr Cook Street

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 03:40 PM

Threehundredeight.com had this end of 2014 seat prediction:

With the aggregate levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win 134 seats, with 128 seats going to the Liberals, 72 seats to the New Democrats, 2 seats to the Greens, and 2 seats to the Bloc Québécois.

 

Veeeery close!



#42 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 03:55 PM

I honestly don't think a minority Liberal government would be the end of the world.


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#43 Mr Cook Street

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 03:59 PM

I honestly don't think a minority Liberal government would be the end of the world.

Agreed. It could work out really well if they picked their battles well and had very specific legislation that appealed to either the conservatives or the NDP. One piece at a time so each vote passes with the support of another party. No more of this omnibus legislation nonsense. That would not make for a long lasting minority gov't.



#44 http

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 10:41 PM

That would take a major scandal or mistake by the Conservatives in order to lose around 60 seats.

Few of their scandals have been minor.


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#45 Bingo

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Posted 05 January 2015 - 11:03 PM

I wonder if Harper will have some goodies in the budget, that will allow him to call a snap spring election?



#46 AndrewReeve

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Posted 06 January 2015 - 03:46 PM

The snap Spring election is what everyone is planning for at the moment. Greens are nominating on the 31st of the month. Liberals will be doing so a month or two after that I believe. NDP already have Rankin. Tories have been having trouble finding someone to run. Dale Gann is not loved within that party and has slinked away anyhow. In no particular order:

 

Victoria: [Murray Rankin] v. [Liberal] v. [Jo-Ann Roberts/Donald Galloway] v. [Conservative]

 

Saanich-Esquimalt-Sooke: [Randall Garrison] v. [David Merner/Luke Krayenhoff] v. [David Hodgins/Justin Stephenson] v. [Shari Lukens?]

 

Saanich-Gulf Islands: [Elizabeth May] v. [Tim Kane?] v. [NDP] v. [Conservative]


Edited by AndrewReeve, 06 January 2015 - 03:48 PM.

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#47 lanforod

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Posted 06 January 2015 - 04:04 PM

The snap Spring election is what everyone is planning for at the moment. Greens are nominating on the 31st of the month. Liberals will be doing so a month or two after that I believe. NDP already have Rankin. Tories have been having trouble finding someone to run. Dale Gann is not loved within that party and has slinked away anyhow. In no particular order:

 

Victoria: [Murray Rankin] v. [Liberal] v. [Jo-Ann Roberts/Donald Galloway] v. [Conservative]

 

Saanich-Esquimalt-Sooke: [Randall Garrison] v. [David Merner/Luke Krayenhoff] v. [David Hodgins/Justin Stephenson] v. [Shari Lukens?]

 

Saanich-Gulf Islands: [Elizabeth May] v. [Tim Kane?] v. [NDP] v. [Conservative]

What, you're not running, Andrew? :P.

 

Perhaps convince Ben Isitt to run for NDP in Saanich-Gulf Islands?



#48 Nparker

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Posted 06 January 2015 - 04:06 PM

Perhaps convince Ben Isitt to run for NDP in Saanich-Gulf Islands?

Or in ANY riding outside the City of Victoria :thumbsup:



#49 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 06 January 2015 - 04:26 PM

I think Hodgins said membership sign-ups close on Jan. 31st and the vote is on Feb 14th.  It's silly that any of the parties still allow membership drives.  They should simply say you have to have been a member for a year prior to the nomination vote.  I suppose that does not create quite the hype and energy though.


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#50 AndrewReeve

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Posted 06 January 2015 - 04:44 PM

What, you're not running, Andrew? :P.

 

Haha nope. I'll be staying on as President of the LPC here and I'm neutral when it comes to nomination races. It's my job to support whoever wins and get them across the finish line.

 

I honestly don't think a minority Liberal government would be the end of the world.

 

It is going to be a close election between the Tories and the Liberals for sure. I don't think anyone outside of the NDP membership believes that they have any shot at forming a federal government in 2015. Let us be thankful for that this year.


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#51 lanforod

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Posted 06 January 2015 - 05:28 PM

Haha nope. I'll be staying on as President of the LPC here and I'm neutral when it comes to nomination races. It's my job to support whoever wins and get them across the finish line.


It is going to be a close election between the Tories and the Liberals for sure. I don't think anyone outside of the NDP membership believes that they have any shot at forming a federal government in 2015. Let us be thankful for that this year.


The problem with a minority government is that it may have to work with the NDP too...

#52 Layne French

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 08:11 AM

I wonder if Harper will have some goodies in the budget, that will allow him to call a snap spring election?

 

 

If he does then I most certainly will not be voting con.. his reasoning for having the governor general dissolve a majority government would have to be very very very good. 



#53 lanforod

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 08:13 AM

Harper has stated several times he has no intention of doing that. I think he actually will stick to the fixed date, but do economic updates in the fall, just like he did back in September - of course, any promises would be contingent on the Conservatives retaining majority government.



#54 G-Man

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 12:15 PM

The Senate issue will likely be percolating again by summer which means it will be back again in the public mind. It would be wise to find a good reason to run the election in the late spring.

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#55 lanforod

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 12:18 PM

The Senate issue will likely be percolating again by summer which means it will be back again in the public mind. It would be wise to find a good reason to run the election in the late spring.

It was all over the news last spring. By fall, no peep. Why not similar this year?



#56 AndrewReeve

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 01:10 PM

It was all over the news last spring. By fall, no peep. Why not similar this year?

 

I suppose that will come down to how long the Duffy trial drags on, and what (if any) mud he plans to sling.


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#57 Bernard

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 02:54 PM

Calling a spring election is not that easy, there are only two paths to do it.

 

1) Change the law - sort of a giveaway as to the PMs intentions

2) Get the House of Commons to vote non-confidence in the PM - politically stupid when you have a majority and need your own party to vote against you

 

The idea the the PM could go to the GG and ask for an early election ignores the fact that the parliament has created a law stating when the election should be held.   If the GG does as the PM wants he is on contravening the desire of parliament.

 

When the government has a minority is it legitimate for the PM to ask for an early election because it is clear to the GG that the PM does not have the confidence of the house.    

 

So with a majority it is not easy to call an early election.   If the PM were to try and ask for one and the GG refused we would have a constitutional crisis.   



#58 Bernard

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 02:57 PM

Do not forget that we have four ridings in this region now.   Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.  About 1/3 of the population of the riding is in the CRD



#59 AndrewReeve

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 03:45 PM

Do not forget that we have four ridings in this region now.   Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.  About 1/3 of the population of the riding is in the CRD

 

I have great admiration for whoever decides to run in CML. Rushing from events down in Langford all the way up to Duncan, then over to Thetis Island is going to rough for even the most energetic of candidates.


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#60 Bernard

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Posted 07 January 2015 - 05:34 PM

I have great admiration for whoever decides to run in CML. Rushing from events down in Langford all the way up to Duncan, then over to Thetis Island is going to rough for even the most energetic of candidates.

 Compared to a lot of ridings in BC outside of the Lower Mainland, it is not very big



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