- NDP - Many can't support their leader regardless of who runs locally. He's weak on every front (most folks have never heard him speak, and couldn't repeat his platform for trying).
- Green - Many can't support their leader regardless of who runs locally. She's never impressed with her policy details, and has too frequently appeared somewhat unhinged at large public gatherings.
- Liberal - Are incredibly weak on presenting a candidate locally, one who may resonate with voters who won't ever vote Green or NDP. Quite amazing really, you'd think they'd do better (it's a far cry from the David Anderson days).
- Conservative - Many can't support their leader regardless of who runs locally. Lots of Vancouver Island folks I know absolutely don't want to move Canada to the right.
So it appears a vote for Cons or Libs will be a vote for their federal leader regardless of who runs locally, and being south Vancouver Island that could really only be the Libs.
Votes for the NDP or Greens will be mix of voting for the local, and voting for the leader, and Singh can't win due to his apparent inability to get even the slightest traction with folks who aren't hard-core NDP supporters.
All of the above in context seems to point to a Green or Lib victory on south Vancouver Island. If Trudeau can rise in the polls, he stands a chance here ... but if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the Greens as a result of Vancouver Islands general leanings to the left and our (now quite established) position of apparently being "OK" with zero effective representation at the federal level.
Edited by Cassidy, 23 July 2019 - 07:05 AM.