Pretty selective to make a claim like that. Apparently the hockey stick graph was glaringly wrong, there are still glaciers in the Himalayas, the polar bears are doing just fine....seems like they get a lot of claims wrong as well and yet they also get some things right....I'm sure we could say the same about the EIA, they, like any other government agency or anyone else that attempts to forecast cant bring into account all the variables that they don't know about...
But if it floats your boat to reject this report then whatever....I'm sure these are very smart folks that worked on this report.
Even in their overview they make the following disclaimer
Projections in International Energy Outlook2017 (IEO2017) are not predictions of what will happen, but rather modeled projections of what may happen given certain assumptions under different scenarios.
•The IEO is developed using the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+), an integrated model that aims to capture various interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand, and prices across regional markets.
•Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty, as the events that shape future developments in technology, demographic changes, economic trends, and resource availability that drive energy use cannot be foreseen with certainty.
•The IEO projections are published under to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977, which requires the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare reports on trends and projections for energy use and supply.
https://www.eia.gov/.../0484(2017).pdf
China shifts from the use of coal toward natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable energy between 2015 and 2040. This shift has a major effect on global energy-related CO2 emissions because of the size of China’s economy.
•The decline in Chinese coal-related CO2 emissions is partially offset by growth in India’s coal-related emissions. However, coal-related emissions in India remain much lower than in China through 2040.
•World coal-related CO2 emissions grow at only 0.1% annually from 2015 to 2040, compared with the growth rate of 2.3%/year from 1990 to 2015
Its a template based on the data available and then extrapolated out. Its either right or its wrong, but a heck of a lot of economic policy is shaped by reports such as this, just like the trillions of $'s spent over the last decade based on the UN Climate change report....