11501 replies to this topic

[LeoVictoria]

I know y’all ignore me but it was actually relevant to this conversation what I highlighted....

 

Sad dasmo.  You know we love you.  In my eyes you'll always be the only investor with credibility.   And balls given the investment into the highly volatile Tesla.

 

Last year I said that the phasing out of the tax credit is going to be biggest threat to Tesla in the near future. Looks like those challenges are starting now and they are reacting.   Will be interesting to see if they can orchestrate the shift of production to Europe, and then shift that again to China from their new factory while US sales take a dip.  That should take them to the point of being able to profitably sell the base version of the Model 3 and offer leasing which should sustain demand but it's going to be a hell of a tricky year for them.

[LeoVictoria]

Apparently Ford is readying hybrid and fully electric versions of the venerable F150 in part because they are concerned that Tesla (among others) are enough of an upcoming threat in that market.

 

But, I expect them to be priced to not sell like hotcakes, pardon my pessimism.

 

GM just hinted at the same..   "Stay tuned" for something to compete with the Tesla pickup truck.  That'll be interesting.  A good/mainstream EV pickup is at least 5 years away though.  

Edited by LeoVictoria, 18 January 2019 - 10:08 AM.

[Mike K.]

The Human condition is hypocritical Mike. All things we humans do destroy something in order to create. It's a process of evolution to maybe achieve sustainability but deep down we know it's not really possible long long term.

Right.

[Mike K.]

In terms of weight I wonder if you could replace the 4x4 system in a half-ton to equip it with batteries while the motor picks up the slack once the juice is low. A winning truck needs to be reliable in that regard, but most pick-ups that never leave the city won’t need 4x4 (think municipal fleets).

[LeoVictoria]

In terms of weight I wonder if you could replace the 4x4 system in a half-ton to equip it with batteries while the motor picks up the slack once the juice is low. A winning truck needs to be reliable in that regard, but most pick-ups that never leave the city won’t need 4x4 (think municipal fleets).

 

That's basically exactly the Workhorse W-15.   Pickup targeting the fleet market.  130km electric range + gas range extender to go further.  Supposed to be in production now but not sure if it is.   Seems the company is a bit unfocused and working on some crazy autonomous personal drones at the same time.  

https://workhorse.com/pickup/

 

Looks like a neat platform but I doubt the economics at $52k make sense even if you put a relatively hefty price on CO2 emissions.    Capability wise it is still only a light truck.

https://cleantechnic...nica-exclusive/

Edited by LeoVictoria, 18 January 2019 - 01:48 PM.

[Mike K.]

Right.

 

Fleet trucks tend to come in at the $25k range, and even lower depending on incentives or fleet discounts. To be competitive electric alternatives would need to come in at $35k.

[MarkoJ]

I would be willing to pay up to 100k for a Tesla truck with 400+ km of range. A F150 with a few options is already hitting 70k.

[DustMagnet]

I would be willing to pay up to 100k for a Tesla truck with 400+ km of range. A F150 with a few options is already hitting 70k.

 

I think a very large part of the market would not.  The pretty-common XLT trim starts at $32,600, so I'd say Mike's numbers are probably right.

[MarkoJ]

I think a very large part of the market would not.  The pretty-common XLT trim starts at $32,600, so I'd say Mike's numbers are probably right.

 

Every other one I see has a Lariat badge. 

 

It's only a matter of time (8 to 10 yrs?) before there is a 50k electric truck. So many advantages like pretty much no need for generators on construction sites anymore. Just plug the power tools into the truck.  

 

I am in Taichung right now and super cool EV technology here. My friend has a scooter that goes 0 to 60 in 3.5 seconds, 80 km range, and the batteries you swamp at convenience stores using a card (no need to deal with a person). You walk in, drop the empty battery in a bank and pick up a fully charged one and throw it back into the scooter (no need to connect any wires). Works really well as my friend is not close a plug in his parkade. 

[LeoVictoria]

I think a very large part of the market would not. The pretty-common XLT trim starts at $32,600, so I'd say Mike's numbers are probably right.

Different market though. Workhorse is targeting the fleet market so economics is all that counts (ok some fleets will pay extra for the environmental benefits but not most).

Consumer market is mostly about consumer taste, and consumers like expensive trucks. Average sales price for trucks in Canada is over $40,000

Edited by LeoVictoria, 19 January 2019 - 08:33 AM.

[LeoVictoria]

Porsche reportedly now planning to make 40,000 of the electric Taycan per year.

That would be more than they sell of their 911.

[Mike K.]

Ford just announced an EV partnership with VW, Porsche (owned by VW) just announced 40k cars, etc. Meanwhile Tesla’s stock price has imploded and its reducing its workforce.

Could a lot of this just be a ruse to unseat Tesla on the markets?

[Rob Randall]

According to the news this morning a lot of VW owners would love to trade their lemons for a Ford, Porsche or Tesla. In fact I bet they'd take a Lada at this point.

Edited by Rob Randall, 21 January 2019 - 10:05 AM.

[Mike K.]

Lol, speaking of which I just saw a guy driving a Lada.

Yeah...

[LJ]

When a greater percentage of folks are driving EV's and the gas tax revenue is thus reduced where do we expect the tax to be increased to cover the shortfall?

 

I remember back when they were trying to convince people to convert to NG and when they got a certain percentage converted they raised the price of NG.

 

Would we expect a (bigger) transportation tax on our electric bills?

[Mike K.]

Tesla just increased the cost of charging at their Superchargers by as much as 40%, depending on where the charger is located.

[MarkoJ]

Tesla just increased the cost of charging at their Superchargers by as much as 40%, depending on where the charger is located.

 

I was at Uptown tonight supercharging and first time I've seen no one there To supercharge a model 3 is equivalent to a car that consumers around 6L/100km.

 

I am all pro the increase in cost....should clear up space for us that have free supercharging for life.

Edited by MarkoJ, 21 January 2019 - 09:54 PM.

[nagel]

When a greater percentage of folks are driving EV's and the gas tax revenue is thus reduced where do we expect the tax to be increased to cover the shortfall?

I remember back when they were trying to convince people to convert to NG and when they got a certain percentage converted they raised the price of NG.

Would we expect a (bigger) transportation tax on our electric bills?

We don’t need one Mike assures us drivers already cover all the infra costs in the entire province.

[Mike K.]

On Vancouver Island, most definitely.

[DustMagnet]

"Jaguar E-Paces delivered to customers missing irreplaceable WiFi software

 

Owners of SUVs permanently lacking navigation, Apple CarPlay and other digital features to be offered a $600 credit instead"

 

https://driving.ca/j...e-wifi-software

I don't know what to say.  I don't know if this level of "customer care" is normal in these circles but I can't imagine if I were to spend the money on an E-Pace that I would be cool with $600 in exchange for a crippled infotainment system.