Jump to content

      



























Photo

Electric and autonomous cars in Victoria and on Vancouver Island


  • Please log in to reply
11436 replies to this topic

#1301 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 18 November 2017 - 01:56 PM

1.5M km with no oil change? Seriously though, I think 1.5M is on the very high end before you need a major engine work, I think it's closer to 800k.


So they will have service yards in every town and truck stop? Sounds expensive.

#1302 dasmo

dasmo

    Grand Master ✔

  • Member
  • 15,239 posts

Posted 18 November 2017 - 04:48 PM

What makes you think the batteries will need replacing after only 200000km? More likely the charge capacity will just be at 90% one could just as easily pull 800,000 km out of the air. The electric car is the platform of the future... Hating won’t stop it....

Plus the batteries will be recycled upon replacement.

#1303 VicHockeyFan

VicHockeyFan
  • Suspended User
  • 52,121 posts

Posted 18 November 2017 - 04:51 PM

So they will have service yards in every town and truck stop? Sounds expensive.


No just at major cities where the “corrals” are just off the freeway.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#1304 LeoVictoria

LeoVictoria
  • Member
  • 3,471 posts

Posted 18 November 2017 - 10:25 PM

I'm not so sure if there's a financial advantage here.

 

Those batteries are very expensive and have very short lifespans. Your average truck won't require an overhaul for 1.5 million kilometres. Those batteries will last at most 200,000 km and by that point the range will have been drastically reduced.

 

I like how you just make up total bullshit and pass it off as fact.   


  • Matt R., lanforod and thundergun like this

#1305 LeoVictoria

LeoVictoria
  • Member
  • 3,471 posts

Posted 18 November 2017 - 10:26 PM

I'm interested to see how that would work. Great candidate for reduced pollution and where it really would shine is the long haul.

 

The Porsche Cayenne hybrid that I drove last year had a battery that would work for the first 75-100km but it was more a hybrid, the part that jumped out was the notice that you could not tow anything as it would damage the electric drive.....I wonder how this differs?  What type of drive is in the rig that can allow big weight compared to cars as this is the concern about EV pickup trucks etc

 

The reason they can't tow is because of the very complex hybrid powertrain that isn't up to it.   No problem with pure electrics.   


  • rjag likes this

#1306 dasmo

dasmo

    Grand Master ✔

  • Member
  • 15,239 posts

Posted 19 November 2017 - 04:50 AM

Hybrids are just plain wrong....
  • Mike K. and VicHockeyFan like this

#1307 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 83,184 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 02:58 PM

I like how you just make up total bullshit and pass it off as fact.   

 

Jeepers, Leo, what's gotten into you? I don't care for your rudeness on this forum and if you can't help yourself, leave. Otherwise drop the attitude.

 

A simple cursory search shows numerous references to degraded electric vehicle battery performance and the need for replacement. I'm sorry that I can't provide you with references to electric trucks as they don't yet exist on our roads in any meaningful numbers, but we can extrapolate information from existing electric vehicles.

 

The 2018 Nissan Leaf will likely be revealed within the next three months, but more than 100,000 older Leaf electric cars are still silently in use on U.S. roads.

 

Some of them, especially the lowest-range cars from the two earliest model years (2011 and 2012), have started to see significant battery capacity degradation. - https://www.greencar...nd-what-it-took

 

“Obviously, nobody knows exactly how long Tesla packs will last. The math is somewhat simple, though. The full capacity of a lithium-ion battery cell should be good for 300 to 500 cycles. So if you drive a Roadster through 300 194-mile standard-mode cycles, it translates to 58,200 miles. If it’s 500 cycles, how does 97,000 miles on one set of batteries sound?

 

“Of course, as Battery University explains, it’s not as simple as that. After 300 to 500 cycles at 100 percent depth of discharge, a lithium-ion cell’s capacity will drop to 70 percent. But partial discharge “reduces stress and prolongs battery life.” Drain the batteries consistently to only 50 percent, as is often the case with electric cars that get plugged in frequently, and life expectancy of a healthy battery zooms up to 1,200 to 1,500 cycles. That, of course, translates to 366,000 miles, but don’t expect numbers like that on your odometer. Other wild cards such as frequency of fast recharge can also affect battery life.” - https://cleantechnic...batteries-last/

 

Will long-haul trucks be meticulously charged in order to maintain peak battery performance? Maybe, but that cuts into travel time if you have to stop for a recharge with every 50% reduction in juice.

 

For a quick reference to the longevity of long-haul trucks, all one has to do is run another search that shows us information like:

 

The average diesel truck engine generally comes with a 2 year/250K mile warranty, which can be extended to 4-5 years and 500K miles. A typical mileage before overhaul is around 700K - 1000K miles.https://www.quora.co...highest-mileage


Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1308 LeoVictoria

LeoVictoria
  • Member
  • 3,471 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 04:40 PM

Jeepers, Leo, what's gotten into you? I don't care for your rudeness on this forum and if you can't help yourself, leave. Otherwise drop the attitude.

 

A simple cursory search shows numerous references to degraded electric vehicle battery performance and the need for replacement. I'm sorry that I can't provide you with references to electric trucks as they don't yet exist on our roads in any meaningful numbers, but we can extrapolate information from existing electric vehicles.

 

The 2018 Nissan Leaf will likely be revealed within the next three months, but more than 100,000 older Leaf electric cars are still silently in use on U.S. roads.

 

Some of them, especially the lowest-range cars from the two earliest model years (2011 and 2012), have started to see significant battery capacity degradation. - https://www.greencar...nd-what-it-took

 

“Obviously, nobody knows exactly how long Tesla packs will last. The math is somewhat simple, though. The full capacity of a lithium-ion battery cell should be good for 300 to 500 cycles. So if you drive a Roadster through 300 194-mile standard-mode cycles, it translates to 58,200 miles. If it’s 500 cycles, how does 97,000 miles on one set of batteries sound?

 

“Of course, as Battery University explains, it’s not as simple as that. After 300 to 500 cycles at 100 percent depth of discharge, a lithium-ion cell’s capacity will drop to 70 percent. But partial discharge “reduces stress and prolongs battery life.” Drain the batteries consistently to only 50 percent, as is often the case with electric cars that get plugged in frequently, and life expectancy of a healthy battery zooms up to 1,200 to 1,500 cycles. That, of course, translates to 366,000 miles, but don’t expect numbers like that on your odometer. Other wild cards such as frequency of fast recharge can also affect battery life.” - https://cleantechnic...batteries-last/

 

Will long-haul trucks be meticulously charged in order to maintain peak battery performance? Maybe, but that cuts into travel time if you have to stop for a recharge with every 50% reduction in juice.

 

For a quick reference to the longevity of long-haul trucks, all one has to do is run another search that shows us information like:

 

The average diesel truck engine generally comes with a 2 year/250K mile warranty, which can be extended to 4-5 years and 500K miles. A typical mileage before overhaul is around 700K - 1000K miles.https://www.quora.co...highest-mileage

 

I suppose I could have rebutted your initial assertion with facts, but given I have already posted the facts on this issue (battery life) several times in this thread, my assumption was that in fact you do know what you are saying is not true, and just like to throw some fake news out there once in a while to keep the discussion going.   

 

So, a recap of lithium ion battery life (I've posted most of this before).  

Given electric vehicles haven't existed for very long, we essentially have two sets of data here, Nissan Leaf battery life history, and Tesla battery life history.    The first has shown significant problems with battery degradation while the other has not.    Why is that?  It's down to the two killers of batteries: discharge/charge cycles and heat.  

Nissan Leaf has a small battery and no active battery cooling, which means it suffers from both and will degrade quickly in hot climates if not taken care of.   

To travel 200,000km, a Nissan Leaf (original generation 24kWh) would go through about 1400 charge cycles, which would likely bring it down to 70% capacity even in a moderate climate.   

 

So if the discussion here was about a Tesla Semi powered by a 24kWh first generation Nissan Leaf battery, you would be right.  

 

Unfortuantely, the discussion is about neither Nissan Leafs nor small first gen electric vehicles.   It is about Tesla and massive battery packs.  

 

So how do Tesla batteries perform?  Well here is some data: 

tesla_nomics.png

 

So about 5% degradation in the first 100,000km and then a pretty flat line after that.    There aren't that many high mileage teslas but it seems you can expect the battery to retain more than 90% of its capacity to at least 300,000km and likely much longer than that.   Given the trend here they could easily go 500,000km.

 

That is with first generation Tesla batteries in cars that have an average of about 75kWh batteries.  

Not surprising really. Firstly the Telsa batteries are liquid cooled so don't suffer from heat degradation, and secondly instead of 1400 cycles to go 200,000km, they will only have done about 500.   So a Tesla could do ~550,000km in as many battery cycles as the Nissan leaf would take for 200,000km.

 

But we aren't even talking about Tesla cars, we're talking about the Tesla Semi.   The best guess based on the range is that it likely has a 1000kWh battery.    So for 200,000km it would only need about 250 charge cycles.    Obviously the battery will not die after 250 charge cycles when we see Tesla's older batteries go 750 charge cycles with only about 8% degradation.   So it should have been obvious that your statement could not possibly be true, even for someone who doesn't follow this stuff.

 

The other clue was of course that Tesla is promising a 1 million mile warranty.  Do you really think they are so collossally stupid to warranty a product for 1M miles if the battery only lasts 125,000 miles?   



#1309 Bingo

Bingo
  • Member
  • 16,666 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 04:47 PM

 
Tesla unveils its electric semi-trailer truck

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Tesla unveiled its new electric semitractor-trailer Thursday night near its design center in Hawthorne, California. CEO Elon Musk said the truck is capable of traveling 500 miles on an electric charge with a full 80,000-pound load.

 

https://www.theglobe...6-e9894ba9b587/

 



#1310 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 83,184 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 05:25 PM

Leo, that's all good and well.

 

But passenger vehicles and big-rig haulers perform very different duties and are driven in very different ways.

 

I can't imagine a big-rig truck driver will pull over every 250 miles for a charge in order to keep its batteries at 50%. That's just not practical, I don't think.


Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1311 LeoVictoria

LeoVictoria
  • Member
  • 3,471 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 05:39 PM

As for being rude, you are right I was and i apologize about that. The question of battery life is certainly a valid one. For example we might wonder whether a battery truck would last 20 years or not. No one knows since Tesla batteries haven’t been around that long.
If someone else had raised that issue I would have presented the evidence instead of being an ass.
However when someone who is educated and intelligent has a long history of spreading misinformation in a certain area (in this case electric vehicles, sustainability, climate change, etc) then it forces the conclusion that you are not interested in the truth of the issue and have some other motive. And if one side seems to have no interest in the truth and only argues along a certain agenda it makes for a pointless discussion.

#1312 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 83,184 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 05:52 PM

Not accepting a marketing schtick is not equal to spreading misinformation, neither is my questioning of other claims.

 

Tesla has to provide a market-leading warranty because the transport industry won't touch their technology without one. And regardless of what happens to the batteries, if they're under warranty the purchaser doesn't eat the cost of battery replacements. Tesla works on its technology, the purchaser is protected, and it's a win-win.

 

Long-haul truckers push their rigs to the absolute max. Tesla needs to experiment in that realm if they ever have a hope of ensuring their Mars vehicles can withstand gruelling demands and conditions.


Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1313 VicHockeyFan

VicHockeyFan
  • Suspended User
  • 52,121 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 06:06 PM

Trucking may soon involve convoys of electric, semi-autonomous big rigs driving cross country.

 

Tesla’s much-anticipated debut of an electric semi-truck on Thursday night has spurred debate about the future of trucking, especially how advances in autonomous driving technology could make many truck driving jobs obsolete. Tesla’s new semi-truck, which is not expected to be manufactured for another two years, has some autonomous driving capabilities, although it still requires a human driver.

 

But, one Intel-backed tech startup has an interesting prediction about trucking’s future. Peloton Technology has developed a system that would allow for “platooning,” in which multiple trucks follow closely behind a lead truck to take advantage of reduced wind resistance while using sensors and radar technology to synchronize their speeds and routes. (Fortune wrote about Peloton in April, when the company was closing a $60 million funding round.) Peloton predicts that platooning would save companies money by improving trucks’ fuel efficiency while also cutting down on emissions.

 

http://fortune.com/2...latoon-peloton/


Edited by VicHockeyFan, 21 November 2017 - 06:06 PM.

<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#1314 dasmo

dasmo

    Grand Master ✔

  • Member
  • 15,239 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 06:40 PM

If you drive around the EU you see trucks doing this manually. Well... obviously on cruise control but still in tight formation.

#1315 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 83,184 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 07:21 PM

Yes! That's true. Those flat designs certainly help.


Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1316 G-Man

G-Man

    Senior Case Officer

  • Moderator
  • 13,800 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 07:37 PM

Sell your car while you still can!!!!!

 

https://qz.com/11225...dustry-is-near/


Visit my blog at: https://www.sidewalkingvictoria.com 

 

It has a whole new look!

 


#1317 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 83,184 posts

Posted 21 November 2017 - 07:40 PM

What in tarnations is this guy smoking.

 

For God's sake...

 

"Within five years, he expects, people will start selling their cars for scrap or trade them in for autonomous passenger modules as self-driving cars take over transportation. Within 20 years, human-driven vehicles will be legislated off highways."


Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1318 dasmo

dasmo

    Grand Master ✔

  • Member
  • 15,239 posts

Posted 22 November 2017 - 08:53 AM

If you believe that you would have believed the dockside green would be built out in seven years....
  • Mike K. and VicHockeyFan like this

#1319 lanforod

lanforod
  • Member
  • 11,240 posts
  • LocationSaanich

Posted 22 November 2017 - 09:03 AM

He prewrote that for publishing in the year 2030 maybe?



#1320 rjag

rjag
  • Member
  • 6,363 posts
  • LocationSi vis pacem para bellum

Posted 22 November 2017 - 09:05 AM

Throw enough predictions out there and eventually you'll get one right and claim to be a futurist


  • jonny likes this

You're not quite at the end of this discussion topic!

Use the page links at the lower-left to go to the next page to read additional posts.
 



3 user(s) are reading this topic

1 members, 2 guests, 0 anonymous users


    Lashlarue