11576 replies to this topic

[dasmo]

Plenty of oil still to produce other things.... no hurry there.

[LJ]

I think that is not born out over the life of the vehicle and it would only be partly applible in places that burn coal.

It was strictly on the manufacturing process I was quoting. They did a study on the emissions over the life of the vehicles as well and that was dictated by how the electricity was produced. To get an equivalent mileage a gas powered vehicle would have to get between 52 and 55mpg to match the electric vehicle and that variance was how the electricity was produced country by country. 

[dasmo]

@LJ a link to the article you reference would be handy. This one from the Union of Concerned Scientists says that EV are less polluting than their gas counterparts....
http://www.ucsusa.or...ns#.Wh4rfGJ6qEc

[LJ]

Sorry I don't have a link for you. It was out of the Sunday edition of the Arizona Republic Cars section.

 

They said that EV cars are less polluting, I just posted that above in my last post #1342.

[rjag]

Sorry I don't have a link for you. It was out of the Sunday edition of the Arizona Republic Cars section.

 

They said that EV cars are less polluting, I just posted that above in my last post #1342.

 

is this the study?

 

http://driving.ca/au...v-co2-emissions

[North Shore]

I kinda wonder whether the best use for the Tesla semi wouldn't be in town, and short haul - containers, say, from the railroad depot to the end-user, and vice-versa.  Blasting 7-8-10 hours across the country is all well and good, but it's probably more efficiently done by train, whereas the short haul stop-and-go in the city, utilising regen braking, etc, seems (to me, anyway) to use the best qualities of electric vehicles.  As always, economics will seal the deal one way or the other..

[VicHockeyFan]

I think there is an awful lot of product that just does not work by train though.

[dasmo]

@rjag, that study is actually about how bad burning coal is.... “...for instance, a battery-powered electric car fueled by electricity generated by coal gets the equivalent of 29 US miles per gallon. Ditto for oil-powered generation. On the other hand, solar power is good for 350 mpg, nuclear 2,300 mpg and hydro a whopping 5,100 miles for every blessed”

[LeoVictoria]

Not accepting a marketing schtick is not equal to spreading misinformation, neither is my questioning of other claims.

Tesla has to provide a market-leading warranty because the transport industry won't touch their technology without one. And regardless of what happens to the batteries, if they're under warranty the purchaser doesn't eat the cost of battery replacements. Tesla works on its technology, the purchaser is protected, and it's a win-win.

Long-haul truckers push their rigs to the absolute max. Tesla needs to experiment in that realm if they ever have a hope of ensuring their Mars vehicles can withstand gruelling demands and conditions.

Has nothing to do with marketing. The batteries are already proven in the field.

[LeoVictoria]

"Touted as a major competitor to the Tesla Model S since it was teased as a concept vehicle in 2015, the Porsche Mission E will debut in 2019, the Verge reported.

 

The Mission E will, according to The Verge, have comparable charge time, speed and cost to the Tesla Model S. But it will cost less than Porsche's hybrid vehicle – and drive a bit slower, too. The Mission E will allegedly have certain autonomous features and may be sold at different price brackets."

And that's the problem.   Lots of companies are announcing cars to compete with current Tesla vehicles for 2019 and 2020.   Meanwhile Tesla announces things like the Roadster for around the same timeframe which takes it to the next level in performance and range.   

 

Then there's battery costs.  Tesla claims their 300mile version of the semi will cost $150,000 and the 500 mile $180,000.   If true, and at their stated efficiency of "less than 2kWh/mile" so say 1.8kWh/mile, that means they are selling you 360kWh of battery for $30,000.   That's a price of $83/kWh which is insanely low.   

If they can actually pull that off it would be a game changer given Nissan currently charges $5000 for a new Leaf battery ($210/kWh) and GM has said they are paying just a bit less for their packs.    At a price of $83/kWh the battery in a Model S would only cost about $6000, and in a Leaf-sized vehicle only half that.   At those prices the new EV would be cheaper than gas vehicles to buy which would mean extremely rapid adoption.  Cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, cheaper to maintain, better performance.   The people buying anything else will be like horse owners today - enthusiasts only.

Edited by LeoVictoria, 30 November 2017 - 11:08 AM.

[VicHockeyFan]

Would that battery pricing make better sense at kWh per life if the battery?

[lanforod]

Sure, that's the price for massive battery packs in the semi. The cost doesn't translate directly to a much smaller pack in a regular car. It must be cheaper to manufacture 1 massive battery that has less space constraints than the car one does.

[dasmo]

Tesla's Gigafactory hasn't really come online with automation yet so costs will most likely have a further downward trajectory. 

[LeoVictoria]

Sure, that's the price for massive battery packs in the semi. The cost doesn't translate directly to a much smaller pack in a regular car. It must be cheaper to manufacture 1 massive battery that has less space constraints than the car one does.

Tesla uses 18650 (Model X and S) and 2170 (Model 3) battery cells. Building a bigger battery pack just consists of using more of them so not really cheaper.
Is possible that they are going to a completely different cell technology though. Pouch cells for example. Harder to keep cool but cheaper to build. Interesting idea haven’t heard anyone talk about that possibility

[rjag]

http://nationalpost....et-analysts-say

 

Zero chance Ontario will meet its 2020 electric car target, analysts say

 

It takes time to get people to change their behaviours, Del Duca said.

 

Or, with any new technology, build something that folks want instead of trying to social engineer them, iphone/ipad etc. 

 

It will happen and like the article says it will take a bit longer thats all.

Edited by rjag, 03 December 2017 - 10:47 AM.

[LeoVictoria]

There's also the emissions.  TBH that's my biggest concern with continuing our dependence on fossil fuel based transportation.  I do believe in human caused climate change but I am more concerned with what the constant emissions mean for our health.

 

Local emissions from gas and diesel vehicles are terrible for our health:  https://www.theguard...he-warn-doctors

"Air pollution significantly increases the risk of low birth weight in babies, leading to lifelong damage to health, according to a large new study."  

 

Gas and diesel vehicles are cheaper partially because the taxpayer pays for the externalities of their pollution.    In a fair system, the purchaser would pay for this and that funding would go to our health care system to pay for the additional health costs. 

 

Luckily many cities and countries are starting to wake up to this and have banned or are planning bans for internal combustion vehicles, or are taxing them heavily.

[LeoVictoria]

Victoria commissioning report to go all electric for buses by 2030.

 

Can't come soon enough.  Buses are so loud and smoggy.   They have no place in the city.  

https://www.vicnews....-fleet-by-2030/

[dasmo]

Excellent idea! Especially those tour buses!!!!!!

[spanky123]

Victoria commissioning report to go all electric for buses by 2030.

 

Can't come soon enough.  Buses are so loud and smoggy.   They have no place in the city.  

https://www.vicnews....-fleet-by-2030/

 

Seems a little silly to commission a report less than a month after BC Transit started its trial. Why not wait until that is over first?

 

Currently electric buses are about twice the price of a regular bus, you would need twice as many buses to cover the routes (due to charging times) and you would need a massive build out of charging infrastructure to support them.

[VicHockeyFan]

Currently electric buses are about twice the price of a regular bus, you would need twice as many buses to cover the routes (due to charging times) and you would need a massive build out of charging infrastructure to support them.

 

Why let practicality get in the way of ideology?

 

Look, the good news it's just an ask.  BCT is not stupid enough to take it too seriously.

 

By 2030, things will look a bit different I suppose.

Edited by VicHockeyFan, 13 December 2017 - 08:05 AM.