5915 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

You don't think Gudgeon's campaign to lower speed limits would taint her chances?

 

The big issue is there are already several candidates in the race who (other than the nudist that wants to be referred to by a marketing term) are not on her side of the political spectrum or as far on that spectrum as she is.

 

The vote against Helps has already been split and we haven't even heard from New Council or other latecomers that are sure to announce in the coming weeks. The fight for the mayor's chair is a lost cause unless a single unifying figure emerges and the other candidates stand down.

 

The big failure here is while everyone's focused on the mayor's seat, nobody is focused on the council seats. Eight of them, for gosh sake.

 

Forget going after Helps until candidates from her side of the fence emerge and inevitably split her chances, and focus on council!

 

Nobody's emerged yet who is seriously considering a run for council while multiple left leaning candidates, including a slate, are already well into their campaigns.

[Nparker]

...nobody is focused on the council seats. Eight of them, for gosh sake...

I've said it before and I am sure I will say it again: based on the current field of candidates I predict little overall change to the CoV council after October 20^th.

[Coreyburger]

I've said it before and I am sure I will say it again: based on the current field of candidates I predict little overall change to the CoV council after October 20^th.

 

Which is interesting, as both Saanich and Oak Bay have 3 open seats. AFAIK, there are currently no open spots on Victoria council.

[rmpeers]

And failing in the Saanich byelection is not a good jumping off point for Victoria (many candidates fail on their first or second try, better to stick to where you are building name recognition)

Makes sense; however, whether familiar or not, I suspect that a candidate who doesn't have the same name as the current mayor may have a built in advantage.

[Rob Randall]

Last election was a huge turnout. I suspected at the time it was due to Helps Fever bringing out non-voters. That same enthusiasm may not be around this time.

 

It is also interesting to note that the runner up in 2014 was Erik Kaye with just over 7,200 votes. In the previous two elections that number would have put him solidly in the top four. There were cases of councillors that increased their vote totals over last election but were still shut out. In 2014 it wasn't enough to do better--you had to do way better in order to survive. 

 

I think it was also the Isitt/Loveday juggernaut that pulled the rest along. Their massive popularity drew a lot of new voters to the polls. 

[Nparker]

...I think it was also the Isitt/Loveday juggernaut that pulled the rest along. Their massive popularity drew a lot of new voters to the polls. 

Two sentences that literally send chills down my spine...and not in a good way.

[spanky123]

I don't see Geoghegan able to win without Issit or other strong left candidates stepping in to split the vote up a bit.

 

The Saanich election, he didn't have a chance. Atwell didn't support him. Harper was a much stronger 'conservative light' pick. The other two candidates there picked up all the left leaning votes, that didn't really hurt him. If Harper hadn't run he'd probably have still lost, but would have done much, much better.

I think if he were to run for Saanich council again, but vs the full slate, he may have a shot (I see that he may do that actually!).

 

 

Nothing against Mike personally but as I said last time around he is unelectable. His Asian women comments which cost him his job as head of the construction association will haunt him forever.

 

https://www.arabianb...ism-137336.html

[Cassidy]

Nothing against Mike personally but as I said last time around he is unelectable. His Asian women comments which cost him his job as head of the construction association will haunt him forever.

 

https://www.arabianb...ism-137336.html

 

I don't agree.

Those comments, while entirely distasteful in the method they were presented, were twisted far out of proportion as to what his actual point was.

 

His point wasn't (and still isn't) misguided at all.

 

That Kwan was (and is) way in over her head and a total lightweight, but repeatedly gets elected because her ethnicity matches a majority of her constituents ethnicity is common knowledge, at least amongst those folks who don't let political correctness stop them from stating out loud what is obvious to a fault.

 

Her claim to fame so far is that she's repeatedly tried to bait Trudeau into condemning Trump publicly ... but Trudeau wisely chooses to simply ignore her stupidity.

 

In the final analysis though, all Mike did was pick the wrong words to express what is a somewhat obvious, if not blatant truth.

[NotHudsonMack]

What I have sniffed out so far adding to Jacques Cadé's list

 

MAYOR
 

Declared

Gary Beyer

Rob Duncan

Lisa Helps

Sean Leitenberg
____ Smardon [signs up but no first name?]

 

Undeclared

Bruce Mcguigan

NewCouncil Candidate?

Michael Geoghegan

 

COUNCIL
 

Declared

Jeremy Loveday

Ben Isitt

Darlene Archibald

Laurel Collins (Together Victoria)

Shamarke Dubow (Together Victoria)
Sarah Potts (Together Victoria)

Grace Lore

Jordan Reichert

Marg Gardiner

Gary Albert

Anna King

 

Undeclared

Chris Coleman

Margret Lucas

Marianne Alto

Geoff Young

Charlayne Thornton-Joe

Pam Madoff

 

Rumours

Stephen Hammond [Mad As Hell tent city dude]

Rob Reid

Andrew Reeve [NewCouncil?]

Bruce Gilespie [NewCouncil?]

[Mike K.]

And we also have RyMo (Ryan Moen) running for mayor.

[Casual Kev]

Shame Geoghegan isn't running for council instead. I might vote for him anyways but I'm waiting on that unicorn who can beat Helps and do a better job...

[mbjj]

Massive popularity of Isitt/Loveday? Good lord....help.

[zoomer]

Geoghegan seems sloppy with numbers, or not smart enough to do basic 2 second math in his head.

In this tweet from August 7 he claims:

“While 0.04 per cent of the population is homeless in Greater Victoria, 1.25 per cent of Salt Spring Island’s population were identified as homeless in this year’s count — which means 131 people. It’s a 58 per cent increase since 2016.”

https://twitter.com/...3226981376?s=21

So, if we say we the population is 370,000 x .04% that would mean 148 homeless.. yah, maybe he meant 0.4%.

Maybe a once off typo, but what is this tweet all about?

https://twitter.com/...6283468800?s=21

“I had lunch with a developer yesterday who mentioned that compliance costs with the City of Victoria for his project are now running at $600 a square foot. So for developers the costs of dealing with municipal red tape now equals the costs of acquiring the land to build on”

Did he mean $60 per square foot? I’m also pretty sure compliance costs don’t equal the cost of land. Using his numbers it costs $1,200 per square foot before ANY CONSTRUCTION OR PROFIT?

Get to the back of the line Geoghegan! Fuh.. At this rate bring back Fortin in a heartbeat.

[Rob Randall]

 

What I have sniffed out so far adding to Jacques Cadé's list

 

MAYOR

 

____ Smardon [signs up but no first name?]

 

Diana? Perennial candidate, never polls high.

[On the Level]

My prediction

 

Issues like Helps handling of Elsner or her plans to turn Topaz Park into a tent city are just far enough past that people forget.  The 4 year election cycle won't always identify financial mismanagement and with the construction boom it will get somewhat obscured.

 

Had this council been blocking development, then I think we would be seeing others step up to the plate.

 

We'll see another 4 years of pretty much the same group.  This will trigger more embolden behavior which will be further from public expectation, along with even more division.  Best yet, they will have 2 projects they can't blame on others; the new Firehall and Crystal Pool which will both be ridiculously managed.  Finally, we'll see the homeless strategy backfire.  

 

This will force others to come forward and they will get punted spectacularly.  No worries.....there will be lots of high fives all around for all of the "change" they brought the city.

Edited by On the Level, 13 August 2018 - 07:15 PM.

[Baro]

Yes,  if Helps screws up badly next term it's very likely someone will successfully run against her, if she runs at all.  The gears of the "NDP machine" will turn and Mayor Loveday will replace the disgraced green mayor as the residents vote for a change.

[RFS]

Truth is Victoria is screwed politically, and will remain so until we have 1) amalgamation and 2) major Asian or East Indian immigration to moderate things a bit

[A Girl is No one]

He's on CFAX with Adam Stirling right now discussing potentially running for Mayor.

Says he will commit to a decision and announce on Sept 5th.

Oh yes, please please please! I’ve dealt with him personally and really like him. A reasonable guy... and although I wanted to vote for Victorians in the past, it seems hard to find a Victoria resident willing to run for office that is not a Marxist... oh I mean SJW. He was my vote in a heartbeat.

[zoomer]

Truth is Victoria is screwed politically, and will remain so until we have 1) amalgamation and 2) major Asian or East Indian immigration to moderate things a bit

Ha! Original and interesting perspective.

[Casual Kev]

Geoghegan seems sloppy with numbers, or not smart enough to do basic 2 second math in his head.

In this tweet from August 7 he claims:

“While 0.04 per cent of the population is homeless in Greater Victoria, 1.25 per cent of Salt Spring Island’s population were identified as homeless in this year’s count — which means 131 people. It’s a 58 per cent increase since 2016.”

https://twitter.com/...3226981376?s=21

So, if we say we the population is 370,000 x .04% that would mean 148 homeless.. yah, maybe he meant 0.4%.

Maybe a once off typo, but what is this tweet all about?

https://twitter.com/...6283468800?s=21

“I had lunch with a developer yesterday who mentioned that compliance costs with the City of Victoria for his project are now running at $600 a square foot. So for developers the costs of dealing with municipal red tape now equals the costs of acquiring the land to build on”

Did he mean $60 per square foot? I’m also pretty sure compliance costs don’t equal the cost of land. Using his numbers it costs $1,200 per square foot before ANY CONSTRUCTION OR PROFIT?

Get to the back of the line Geoghegan! Fuh.. At this rate bring back Fortin in a heartbeat.

 

WRT the development cost comment he did say it was "a developer" rather than an industry standard so odds are the numbers are from someone building something luxurious in a desirable location. In Vancouver, red tape adds $322/sqft on average so it's not far fetched for a high-end project here to approach the number being thrown around.

 

https://vancouversun...es-in-vancouver