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2018 City of Victoria election


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#1641 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:31 AM

Your reasoning misses the second axis in supply/demand - completely.

Try again.

 

Nope. You're making the assumption that all land is equally desirable - that the value in land is in its scarcity and scarcity alone, rather than the value created in properties built locations which are desirable. When you build more property in Victoria, Victoria becomes more desirable and will attract more investment. Real estate is not a perfect market, and the supply/demand curve is not the same as, say, loaves of bread.



#1642 Taco

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:33 AM

Amazing how a cheeky asterisk comment in small text has exploded into an entire debate resulting in calling me entitled. Clearly a dark sense of humour about the realities of the housing market was unappreciated by some folks here.

 

I'm not asking for policy to result in me owning. Rental is definitely the goal. There are smart policy options that will help alleviate the affordability crisis. Reform zoning, expedite the development process, stop electing people that cater to the vocal minority/radical NIMBY's... oh, and look at reducing 13 municipalities to perhaps 4 to see some effective regional strategies.

Not so amazing, I'd say...

You appear to have political aspirations, meaning you're now judged in the context of leadership.  You'll have more fun, in my experience, if you abandon the "humorous" asides and quips.  Every one I've tried when in a leadership role has gotten me into trouble, lol.



#1643 Taco

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:41 AM

Nope. You're making the assumption that all land is equally desirable - that the value in land is in its scarcity and scarcity alone, rather than the value created in properties built locations which are desirable. When you build more property in Victoria, Victoria becomes more desirable and will attract more investment. Real estate is not a perfect market, and the supply/demand curve is not the same as, say, loaves of bread.

Well I sure cant argue with this, lol.



#1644 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:51 AM

Well I sure cant argue with this, lol.

 

I assume sarcasm. Andrew here could buy the same product in Kelowna for much less than in Kitsilano. Where is the value in that house? Is it that the house in Kitsilano is nicer and only nicer? Or is it because Vancouver is bigger and offers more jobs, more social connections, a more vibrant lifestyle?

Real estate development (supply) creates demand. Why else would something be so much more expensive in Chicago than, say, coastal Oregon? Surely Oregon is a nicer physical environment? Better climate? It's because development feeds on itself and creates desirability. You cannot make the assumption that developing will alleviate demand for housing. The scaling of Vancouver from something the size of Victoria speaks to this exactly.



#1645 RFS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:56 AM

I assume sarcasm. Andrew here could buy the same product in Kelowna for much less than in Kitsilano. Where is the value in that house? Is it that the house in Kitsilano is nicer and only nicer? Or is it because Vancouver is bigger and offers more jobs, more social connections, a more vibrant lifestyle?

Real estate development (supply) creates demand. Why else would something be so much more expensive in Chicago than, say, coastal Oregon? Surely Oregon is a nicer physical environment? Better climate? It's because development feeds on itself and creates desirability. You cannot make the assumption that developing will alleviate demand for housing. The scaling of Vancouver from something the size of Victoria speaks to this exactly.

That isn't true 100% of the time.  If they kept building in Kelowna you think prices would rise?  If they stopped building in Vancouver prices would stay the same or drop?  In markets like Edmonton prices are low because they have lots of land and build like crazy.  Just for arguments sake imagine 20,000 new houses popped up for sale in the Saanich peninsula.  You don't think that would have a cooling effect on our housing market?



#1646 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:05 PM

If they kept building in Kelowna you think prices would rise?

 

Uh...that's exactly what's happened in Kelowna. Or am I missing something...things are cheaper there now? They're not building anymore?

Look at all the condos that have gone up in Vancouver in the last 20 years. When I lived in the West End in 2000ish I could have bought a new build 2br for ~250k. That same condo, after all the insane amount of building that has gone on, is now roughly $1m. You'd think the prices of condos would have gone down in Vancouver with all the feverish condo development in the last 20 years. Has it?



#1647 RFS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:06 PM

Uh...that's exactly what's happened in Kelowna. Or am I missing something...things are cheaper there now? They're not building anymore?

Look at all the condos that have gone up in Vancouver in the last 20 years. When I lived in the West End in 2000ish I could have bought a new build 2br for ~250k. That same condo, after all the insane amount of building that has gone on, is now roughly $1m. You'd think the prices of condos would have gone down in Vancouver with all the feverish condo development in the last 20 years. Has it?


Ok great you have cracked the code! Shut down all construction and we'll all be able to buy homes! 10/10 logic my friend

#1648 lanforod

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:07 PM

^ eventually, that is actually true, but it has a whole pile of other unintended results as well as the major drop in jobs would have people leaving in droves. It'd end up like Detroit.



#1649 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:14 PM

Ok great you have cracked the code! Shut down all construction and we'll all be able to buy homes! 10/10 logic my friend

 

My point is that alleviating demand in an urban environment is not as simple as building more supply. There are many, many more factors involved in desirability. If you're going so far as to create policy to improve affordability and propose simply building more condos to solve that, history will attest that it's far from guaranteed.



#1650 RFS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:23 PM

My point is that alleviating demand in an urban environment is not as simple as building more supply. There are many, many more factors involved in desirability. If you're going so far as to create policy to improve affordability and propose simply building more condos to solve that, history will attest that it's far from guaranteed.

So what are you going to do? Make it less desirable?  Drain the ocean? block out the sun like Mr Burns?  The only aspect that is really within our locus of control is supply.  Yes, there has been what might seem like a lot of building in Vancouver but clearly it is not enough.  Vancouver has much of the same problems we do when it comes to zoning and an anti development city council.  Our "building booms" pale in comparison to the building booms of the 60s and 70s.  Supply simply has not kept pace with demand.


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#1651 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:31 PM

The only aspect that is really within our locus of control is supply. 

 

Supply is not all created equal, my friend. There's titled property, there's rental property, there's varieties of non-market housing. You may be unfamiliar, but a proper affordable housing strategy is a little more nuanced than 'build, baby, build'. It involves creating a substantial supply of housing that is free from the rampant property speculation that has plagued major global cities of late.

There will be limits to growth for cities - Vancouver and Victoria have significant geographical constraints, transportation constraints, etc. that will prevent endless growth. In the meantime, we need to address the realities of housing every portion of our society in an environment which has been steamrolled by a glut of global capital entirely beyond our control.



#1652 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:41 PM

 Supply simply has not kept pace with demand.

 

Where do you think that demand is coming from, exactly?



#1653 RFS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:43 PM

Supply is not all created equal, my friend. There's titled property, there's rental property, there's varieties of non-market housing. You may be unfamiliar, but a proper affordable housing strategy is a little more nuanced than 'build, baby, build'. It involves creating a substantial supply of housing that is free from the rampant property speculation that has plagued major global cities of late.

There will be limits to growth for cities - Vancouver and Victoria have significant geographical constraints, transportation constraints, etc. that will prevent endless growth. In the meantime, we need to address the realities of housing every portion of our society in an environment which has been steamrolled by a glut of global capital entirely beyond our control.

 

No, no, no, it has already been established on this forum that the geographic constrains are massively overstated.  We have TONS of land.  We could easily 10x our current footprint without even leaving the CRD.  As far as transportation, totally a created problem.  With sufficient political will we could have all the capacity we need.  A substantial supply of (government funded I assume) rental housing is great, but we don't want permanent underclass of wage slaves cursed to rent for the rest of their lives like they have in poor countries.  We want middle class home owners.


Edited by RFS, 18 May 2018 - 12:44 PM.


#1654 RFS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:44 PM

Where do you think that demand is coming from, exactly?

 

What, you want to shut down immigration?  Hey I'll have that conversation



#1655 punk cannonballer

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:53 PM

What, you want to shut down immigration?  Hey I'll have that conversation

 

Wait, so you're not convinced that building too few units is the problem?

Should we be building to accommodate all that upper middle class Chinese money? Is building supply the problem, or is curtailing demand part of the solution too? Because I'm guessing that the lack of supply isn't because 100% of our condos here in BC are crammed with local wage earners.



#1656 RFS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 01:04 PM

Wait, so you're not convinced that building too few units is the problem?

Should we be building to accommodate all that upper middle class Chinese money? Is building supply the problem, or is curtailing demand part of the solution too? Because I'm guessing that the lack of supply isn't because 100% of our condos here in BC are crammed with local wage earners.

It is both.  Under your suggestions the Chinese money would still be accommodated and everyone else would just be renting.  My suggestions make it possible to build cheap, simple housing for young families and wage earners to buy. If you want to do some legislation restricting that to Canadian citizens only I'm ok with that



#1657 Bob Fugger

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 02:00 PM

Amazing how a cheeky asterisk comment in small text has exploded into an entire debate resulting in calling me entitled. Clearly a dark sense of humour about the realities of the housing market was unappreciated by some folks here.

 

Please, if you're wanting to be a City councilor, you're going to have to do a helluva lot better at walking it back than, "Just kidding!  Why don't you get my humour?!"  It's a bit insulting.



#1658 Mike K.

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 02:21 PM

That’s why we go instead to 2 hours except by resident permit.


That’s not practical due to administrative reasons.

We also know people will hope around every 2.5 hours. The entire northern area of downtown is a song and dance of juggling cars. It’s silly.

Know it all.
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#1659 LJ

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 08:09 PM

Maybe we could get the Chinese money to build rentals.


Life's a journey......so roll down the window and enjoy the breeze.

 



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