2514 replies to this topic

[MarkoJ]

Not even our expert realtor can answer this question?!? The answer is approximately 330k 

 

I think that would be a tad tricky until Ironworks sells out as they have studios with parking left at 325k.

[Bob Fugger]

I think that would be a tad tricky until Ironworks sells out as they have studios with parking left at 325k.

 

These new mortgage rules have ruled me out of picking up a resale unit.  Very choked, as this building appears to have some of the best fundamentals for price out there.

[Promontory Kingpin]

I think that would be a tad tricky until Ironworks sells out as they have studios with parking left at 325k.

 

Ironworks has parking which is definetly a big plus. But keep in mind Ironworks is a wood building in a pseudo industrial neighbourhood with far less cool amenities. By the time any of us decide to cash in on these units at the wade the current Ironworks building(s) will be sold out. 

 

Keep a close eye on the Pandora corridor. I guarantee in the years to come it will be one of the downtowns hot neighbourhoods. We all know the 900 block has a very limited lifespan (with its current status) given the upcoming developments

[Bob Fugger]

Ironworks has parking which is definetly a big plus. But keep in mind Ironworks is a wood building in a pseudo industrial neighbourhood with far less cool amenities.

 

I think that Ironworks is the vanguard for development in this part of Old Town.  It looks to be the first of a few buildings, and that doesn't include the Capital Iron property, which is de facto for sale.  Pop an anchor grocery store somewhere in there and methinks you've got Yaletown 2.0.

[Mike K.]

I believe The Wade will have occupancy by late summer of 2019.

By that point the Save-Ons just one block away will have added tremendous value to The Wade, and major redevelopment of that entire area will further push valuations higher. East downtown is definitely the more up-scale quadrant but west downtown has a blank slate in some regards, so either way the up-side is strong.

In terms of valuation we’re in the $350-$360k range for an entry level concrete studio. Hudson Place has priced its entry level units at ~$450k. So where’s The Wade going to see its prices settle come mid-2019? I’d say a range of $330-$380k for studios is a decent bet, provided the market doesn’t nosedive in response to a massive global recession.

[Mike K.]

I think that Ironworks is the vanguard for development in this part of Old Town. It looks to be the first of a few buildings, and that doesn't include the Capital Iron property, which is de facto for sale. Pop an anchor grocery store somewhere in there and methinks you've got Yaletown 2.0.

The Save-Ons will more than accommodate the entire downtown area. The Market on Yates could close if Save-Ons goes for a loss strategy to claim market share. And Old Town is relatively well served by Chinatown for quick grocery runs.

[N E Body]

The Save-Ons will more than accommodate the entire downtown area. The Market on Yates could close if Save-Ons goes for a loss strategy to claim market share. And Old Town is relatively well served by Chinatown for quick grocery runs.

 

The Save On going into the Pandora location can't be that huge if one considers how much parking will be available.

 

Red Barn opened in James Bay... one block from Thrifty Foods. Business seems to be steady and Capital Park will provide even more customers.

 

I think there is more than enough business for yet another store near Cap Iron. Save On or otherwise.

 

Anyway... drifting wildly off topic...

Edited by N E Body, 12 November 2018 - 10:57 AM.

[Mike K.]

From a grocery store economics perspective the Save-Ons will corner the entire downtown market (Oak Bay junction west, Quadra south and Belleville north).

Consider that Thrifty’s is the sole store in James Bay and Save-Ons is the sole store in Vic West.

The Save-Ons on Pandora will be a full-size, full service store as large as the others with an underground parkade.

[N E Body]

From a grocery store economics perspective the Save-Ons will corner the entire downtown market (Oak Bay junction west, Quadra south and Belleville north).

Consider that Thrifty’s is the sole store in James Bay and Save-Ons is the sole store in Vic West.

The Save-Ons on Pandora will be a full-size, full service store as large as the others with an underground parkade.

 

There is still a lot of room for other food stores to operate. Maybe not on the scale of Thrifty Foods or Save-On... but large enough to be viable.

 

I've witnessed first hand a "health food" store open next door to Thrifty Foods. Thrifty Foods tried to crush them by opening a health food section in the store. Didn't work. The HFS operator was savvy and expanded his food section, doubled the size of the store and reduced prices on sale items just below Thrifty's price. Worked like a charm. The store grew enormously in revenue and was eventually bought by a large chain.

 

There is always room for another player.

[MarkoJ]

The structure isn't even out of the ground My guess is November or Dec 2019 based on the concrete structure still has 4-5 months to completion at current pace + 6 months for finishing.

 

I believe The Wade will have occupancy by late summer of 2019.

[MarkoJ]

Hudson Place has priced its entry level units at ~$450k. 

 

That is with parking. Without they are starting at 375k -> 

 

https://www.realtor....ctoria-downtown

[tjv]

I believe The Wade will have occupancy by late summer of 2019.

There is ZERO chance of that happening

 

As for Marko's comments of 6 months of finishing, those are the typical timelines during a non boom with no trade shortage.  I would say early 2020 at the earliest

[Mike K.]

You guys don’t think a four-storey building can be completed in 10 months? The most complicated aspect is coming to a close. Once they hit ground it’s the same forms all the way to the roof. And the old building is already built.

I thought you said a lot of construction players are winding down into 2019, tjv, which means workers will be easier to secure?

Either way even a completion into early 2020 will be ok. As PK said, it’s better to have a building finish in the New Year than at the end of a year.

[Mike K.]

There is still a lot of room for other food stores to operate. Maybe not on the scale of Thrifty Foods or Save-On... but large enough to be viable.

I've witnessed first hand a "health food" store open next door to Thrifty Foods. Thrifty Foods tried to crush them by opening a health food section in the store. Didn't work. The HFS operator was savvy and expanded his food section, doubled the size of the store and reduced prices on sale items just below Thrifty's price. Worked like a charm. The store grew enormously in revenue and was eventually bought by a large chain.

There is always room for another player.

It’ll all come down to density. You’d think a grocer would be viable in the Songhees with all of those condos but even there they are waiting on Dockside and Bayview to push with more residences.

I predict Market on Yates will struggle when Save Ons opens. Luckily for them their lease terms will be favourable in light of plans to redevelop that whole block starting in about 10-years.

[tjv]

You guys don’t think a four-storey building can be completed in 10 months? The most complicated aspect is coming to a close. Once they hit ground it’s the same forms all the way to the roof. And the old building is already built.

I thought you said a lot of construction players are winding down into 2019, tjv, which means workers will be easier to secure?

Either way even a completion into early 2020 will be ok. As PK said, it’s better to have a building finish in the New Year than at the end of a year.

Yes the parkade is at street level, but you have noticed they are missing a huge section that hasn't even been started?    Even if that was complete I don't see them completing in 10 months

 

Yes I did, but there is still a lot of carry over to complete.  10 years ago when it went bust, it took me 10-11 months to complete the backlog of work, but once that was done, only then did I start mass layoffs.  I am hearing about the housing sector already slowing and some companies venturing up island in search of work.  At this point thou labor does remain in tight supply and will probably be that way for the next 4 months, but that's just my guess

[N E Body]

Yes the parkade is at street level, but you have noticed they are missing a huge section that hasn't even been started?    Even if that was complete I don't see them completing in 10 months

 

 

Does it look as if they still have some blasting to do in that area? I know that sounds crazy but there appears to still be a lot of rock in that one area where the east wing will be built.

[Mike K.]

I don't think they'll be going down along the north half of the east wing. It'll be built at-grade on the rock.

[tjv]

^I admit I don't have the plans, but then what is the giant hole for?  I can see the rebar hanging out into the hole which is only done to splice

 

Anyway, it gets done when it gets done, no one is guaranteeing schedules at the moment including my company

[N E Body]

Parking is not at street level. Street level is commercial. There has to be a ramp for below grade parking. There is also an addition that has to go onto the older building.

[Mike K.]

Right, the parking entrance is off Johnson Street. The ramp down is what we're not seeing built yet. The ramp will be to the west of the parking entrance while heading straight (north) from the entrance takes you to the garbage bins.