1003 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

I'd like to see a form sent out to all residential property owners: "Do you rent out all or a portion of your home?". Lie on the form and its fraud for which there is no statute of limitations

I would give it 2 days before there is rioting in the streets

true that. same if you asked if they paid anyone cash for repairs or to cut the lawn.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 20 January 2019 - 06:26 PM.

[LeoVictoria]

that’s my thought on the casino laundering thing and helps concerns. money laundering flows like water just looking for the easiest path. if casinos won’t launder money it’ll still get laundered. it’s not changing the original crime that’s producing the cash.

Most people would think that the state sanctioned casinos should not be the one doing the laundering though. Seems like a reasonable expectation that when some people show up with duffel bags of cash the casinos don’t say “yes sir right away sir”

Edited by LeoVictoria, 20 January 2019 - 10:52 PM.

[LeoVictoria]

Wouldn’t supply make a more meaningful impact that a cocktail or half measures that can’t seem to get any traction?

I think both is necessary but I agree If it was a choice between supply side and demand side measures I would vote supply side every time.

Impact of foreign buyers tax and stress test in Vancouver shows that demand side measures can be effective too. I doubt we’ll be able to measure the effect from the spec tax. Will be watching new listings rate very closely this year. If the spec tax is effective we should see more listings hit the market

[Nparker]

... If the spec tax is effective we should see more listings hit the market

It'll be amazing to see those $1.6 million suburban tract houses in the lower mainland drop to an affordable $1.3 million. Problem solved.

[VIResident]

Canadian banks are being shorted by Crescat Capital, a small U.S. hedge fund that predicts a major economic recession as Canada’s housing market buckles. 

 

According to Crescat, more than 80% of Canadian companies aren’t generating enough cash to support their businesses, the highest in the world, reports the Financial Post. Crescat, which has US$55 million under management, declined to name the banks it is shorting. 

 

https://business.fin...anks-on-housing

[Mike K.]

If the spec tax is effective we should see more listings hit the market

That’s not entirely fair, though. We’re on an upwards trajectory for listings with or without the spec tax. Unless we can definitively quantify which listings are a result of the tax just looking at the listings in isolation won’t support the theory that the tax is effective.

But I did figure everything associated with the housing market that could be seen as a positive relative to affordability will be associated with the efficacy of the tax anecdotally, and I suspect that all that matters to supporters of the NDP’s measures.

[rjag]

Impact of foreign buyers tax and stress test in Vancouver shows that demand side measures can be effective too. I doubt we’ll be able to measure the effect from the spec tax. Will be watching new listings rate very closely this year. If the spec tax is effective we should see more listings hit the market

 

Interesting, the impact has to cool the market significantly, but those combined with rising interest rates are in direct conflict with making homes affordable for the first time buyer as well as the 'average' Joe & Jane. The $450k condo is now $500k and the $3million property is now $2.5 million....what it has done is make higher end homes cheaper for those that have the cash.

 

I'd still like to see some actual numbers of 'empty' homes in the 'affordable' range. I dont care about the $10million Beach Drive mansion as those are always going to be empty as many are perpetually up for sale in high end markets. But some concrete evidence on the number of empty condos and houses in the catchment areas sub $1 million. 

[Mike K.]

Statistics Canada provides us with that figure and Greater Victoria has one of the lowest ratios of part-time residences of any Canadian city: https://victoria.cit...tistics-canada/

5.7%, or 10,000 residences, are not occupied by “usual residents.” It doesn’t mean they’re sitting empty all year, but many would be used as vacation homes or secondary residences.

“Data for Vancouver, Ottawa, Edmonton, London, Halifax, Regina, Saskatoon, Kelowna, St. John's and other census metropolitan areas revealed a lower ratio of full-time residences to part-time residences when compared to Victoria, while cities like Toronto, Montreal and Calgary were virtually equal to the south Island’s ratio.”

[spanky123]

Canadian banks are being shorted by Crescat Capital, a small U.S. hedge fund that predicts a major economic recession as Canada’s housing market buckles. 

 

According to Crescat, more than 80% of Canadian companies aren’t generating enough cash to support their businesses, the highest in the world, reports the Financial Post. Crescat, which has US$55 million under management, declined to name the banks it is shorting. 

 

https://business.fin...anks-on-housing

 

Wow $55M under management, that would make them one of the top 100 wealthiest groups in Victoria!

 

Should also point out that if you look at the actual report and not what the FP has reported, the report refers to "non-financial companies". The reports doesn't mention if it takes into consideration things like stock buybacks, dividend payments, M&A, capital purchases and other items that impact cash flow but would not necessarily indicate a lack of financial health.

Edited by spanky123, 21 January 2019 - 08:32 AM.

[spanky123]

Impact of foreign buyers tax and stress test in Vancouver shows that demand side measures can be effective too. I doubt we’ll be able to measure the effect from the spec tax. Will be watching new listings rate very closely this year. If the spec tax is effective we should see more listings hit the market

 

If we assume that the NDP and Greens are right and that there are thousands of homes owned by wealthy Chinese owners who don't live here, why would anyone believe that they would sell their homes because of a tax? If you are so rich that you can afford to own million dollar houses around the world and have them sit empty would a few thousands dollars in tax force you to change your behaviour? 

 

Ok so the Government takes some of the extra tax money and builds a few subsidized homes, how does that help you afford a house to buy? 

Edited by spanky123, 21 January 2019 - 08:43 AM.

[Mike K.]

Weaver now says the tax was a confidence vote, while the NDP says it wasn’t. You get to decide. Nonetheless, Weaver is trying to kill this tax.

“What we’re very clear about — is this was obviously a confidence measure,” Weaver told Shaw. “I was willing to take it to the line on the confidence measure if Canadians were not treated the same.” [my comment: he means Canadians not being taxed at 0.5% like British Columbians]

Risking a confidence vote and threatening to bring down the government to get what he wanted on an amendment?

That would have been a bold bit of brinksmanship on Weaver’s part if it happened that way.

But there is no record of Mike Farnworth, the NDP house leader, declaring the vote on the speculation tax to be a matter of confidence. Had he done so, it would have violated the terms of the power-sharing agreement between the two parties.

- https://vancouversun...green-dna-on-it

[Mike K.]

Ok so the Government takes some of the extra tax money and builds a few subsidized homes, how does that help you afford a house to buy?

Want to help British Columbians buy their first home? Get rid of purchase taxation that cops out at $500k. You can barely buy a two-bedroom condo for that price in the big cities. Furthermore, remove the ridiculous requirement that in order to even receive the credit the property must be below a certain size. Can’t a British Columbian buy an acreage (I think the limit is 1.5 or 1.75 acres) as their first home and receive the tax break?

[rjag]

Statistics Canada provides us with that figure and Greater Victoria has one of the lowest ratios of part-time residences of any Canadian city: https://victoria.cit...tistics-canada/

5.7%, or 10,000 residences, are not occupied by “usual residents.” It doesn’t mean they’re sitting empty all year, but many would be used as vacation homes or secondary residences.

“Data for Vancouver, Ottawa, Edmonton, London, Halifax, Regina, Saskatoon, Kelowna, St. John's and other census metropolitan areas revealed a lower ratio of full-time residences to part-time residences when compared to Victoria, while cities like Toronto, Montreal and Calgary were virtually equal to the south Island’s ratio.”

 

If I was a gambling man I'd bet that there are less than 250 actual empty unfurnished places in the CRD of which 1/2 will be properties being processed for Estate Sale at a point in the future. There are 2 homes near me where the person died some time back, the furnishings were removed and they are/were stuck in probate.

 

Another situation with a regular poster here was a tragic one where one parent passed away unexpectedly and the other parent had to move into care and the 'kids' had to go through a legal process to gain power of attorney over the surviving parents affairs before they could do anything with the property. That process took a very long time.

[RFS]

Weaver now says the tax was a confidence vote, while the NDP says it wasn’t. You get to decide. Nonetheless, Weaver is trying to kill this tax.

- https://vancouversun...green-dna-on-it

 

Whatever.  If that's how he feels then he should have done something about it.   All talk, no action

[tjv]

Canadian banks are being shorted by Crescat Capital, a small U.S. hedge fund that predicts a major economic recession as Canada’s housing market buckles. 

 

According to Crescat, more than 80% of Canadian companies aren’t generating enough cash to support their businesses, the highest in the world, reports the Financial Post. Crescat, which has US$55 million under management, declined to name the banks it is shorting. 

 

https://business.fin...anks-on-housing

Canadian bank stocks did get hammered last year although they are generally climbing back so not sure its a long term thing

 

True they have $55 under management which is nothing, but they did have a 41% rate of return which is excellent.  I suspect if they keep up those rate of returns they will soon have billions under management

 

I don't see a "major" recession in Canada, but likely a soft landing as things continue to cool.  I see lots of people advertising construction services now and I hear lots of people saying the single family market is slowing considerably, but multi units are still pretty strong.  I suspect because its the only affordable market left

 

I can't speak for the rest of the country outside of Alberta which is crashing and has been for several years

[spanky123]

Canadian bank stocks did get hammered last year although they are generally climbing back so not sure its a long term thing

 

True they have $55 under management which is nothing, but they did have a 41% rate of return which is excellent.  I suspect if they keep up those rate of returns they will soon have billions under management

 

I don't see a "major" recession in Canada, but likely a soft landing as things continue to cool.  I see lots of people advertising construction services now and I hear lots of people saying the single family market is slowing considerably, but multi units are still pretty strong.  I suspect because its the only affordable market left

 

I can't speak for the rest of the country outside of Alberta which is crashing and has been for several years

 

And the year previously they had a -21% return which trailed the market by 40+%.

[spanky123]

Whatever.  If that's how he feels then he should have done something about it.   All talk, no action

 

I sat in meetings last fall when he promised business leaders that he will kill the tax back then. Bottom line is that he values power more than he values his principles. 

[rjag]

I sat in meetings last fall when he promised business leaders that he will kill the tax back then. Bottom line is that he values power more than he values his principles.

His Game of Thrones family symbol is a Weather Vane

[Mike K.]

Now that PR is dead, Site C is well underway and the spec tax has landed on the Greens as much as on the NDP we might finally see some fireworks.

[lanforod]

His Game of Thrones family symbol is a Weather Vane

 

I thought that was Adrian Dix. Weaver's is a loonie.