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2016 Census Results and Victoria population discussion


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#41 aastra

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 10:22 AM

Are there two Mike K.'s on this board now?

Just to confirm a few numbers, when fully built out, The Railyards, Dockside Green and Bayview will double Vic West's population to about 11,000. Build-out is expected within 20 years.


I think somebody needs to buy me a few donuts.

#42 Mike K.

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 10:46 AM

I was referring to someone's suggestion that Vic West's population would increase to 20,000 in a few years.

I'm not sure what's unrealistic about adding 4,000+ residents to 2,500 residential units over 20 years.

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#43 aastra

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 10:59 AM

I'm merely pointing out that the CRD's optimistic projection for the West Comms is contained within the same document as the CRD's low (a.ka. incorrect) prediction for the city proper.

I'm not sure what's unrealistic about adding 4,000+ residents to 2,500 residential units over 20 years.


Methinks there's nothing unrealistic about it if the buildings are actually being constructed. But if there are pauses of years at a time then I think we need to adjust our estimates. Unless we're thinking the buildings that eventually do come along after the pause will be larger than the buildings that were initially planned.

#44 G-Man

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 11:04 AM

I agree Aastra i mean isn't CoV at 80k now? So less than 5k increase in 16 years? Hmmm...

#45 Mike K.

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Posted 21 June 2010 - 12:32 PM

I would say the estimates carry more weight when looked at by region (Core, Saan Penn and West shore) rather than by individual municipalities.

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#46 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 08:10 AM

Remind me, when are we expecting that? 100 years from now?


Exactly. Unless we drastically increase our allowed immigration numbers, our population is not going to grow much, or will likely decrease, just like every western nation.

Plus some numbers in here: http://www.google.co...met=sp_pop_totl

#47 Mike K.

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 08:18 AM

So you're siding with the notion that it will take over 100 years to reach a population of 400,000 in the CRD, and a population of 150,000 in the west shore won't be reached in our lifetime?

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#48 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 08:58 AM

So you're siding with the notion that it will take over 100 years to reach a population of 400,000 in the CRD, and a population of 150,000 in the west shore won't be reached in our lifetime?


I've seen your lifestyle, I don't expect you to live past 50. But maybe in my lifetime.

All joking aside, I don't think there is a good reason to expect to hit 400,000 in the CRD in the next 25 years.

#49 Holden West

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 09:39 AM

What if the resource economy slides to the point that the lumber and fishing towns on the Island collapse and the population migrates to the cities?
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
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#50 aastra

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 10:04 AM

These are my guesses, barring something really unusual that drives people to/from Greater Victoria in big numbers:

- CMA reaches 400,000 in 15-20 years (unless the boundaries are expanded, of course)
- West Comms reach 80,000 in 20 years
- West Comms reach 150,000 no sooner than 50 years (if ever)

Methinks I might be erring slightly on the low side with these. But not by much.

#51 spanky123

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 10:30 AM

Everybody's just throwing numbers around.


Bingo.

You want money for infrastructure then the population is going to explode. You want to close schools then the population is going to decline.

#52 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 12:41 PM

Current Westshore is 67,700 without View Royal and 77,000 with it. Is 110,000 realistic in 2026? Hard to say, in 13 years there has been a total growth of 18,500. Is another 33,000 in 17 years realistic?

The 2006 census shows us that the Downtown core is not that important a destination for people commuting from the Westshore.

In the lower mainland there are larger populations passing through smaller choke points.

#53 aastra

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Posted 22 June 2010 - 12:59 PM

So I'm probably too low on my 20-year estimate for the West Comms by about 10,000.

#54 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 08:04 AM

http://www.torontosu...8/14542881.html

Canada’s population eclipsed the 34-million mark for the first time ever, Statistics Canada said in its latest look at the country’s population.

The federal agency said the country’s population stood at 34,019,000 on April 1, a jump of about 88,000 since it last counted Canadians on Jan. 1.


Counting Canada

The latest population estimates from Statistics Canada, as of April 1.

CANADA 34,019,000 ( 0.26% compared to Jan. 1, 2010)

Newfoundland 510,900 ( 0.02%)
P.E.I. 141,600 ( 0.23%)
Nova Scotia 940,500 (-0.03%)
New Brunswick 751,300 ( 0.08%)
Quebec 7,886,100 (0.20%)
Ontario 13,167,900 (0.25%)
Manitoba 1,232,700 (0.30%)
Saskatchewan 1,041,700 (0.36%)
Alberta 3,724,800 (0.35%)
British Columbia 4,510,900 ( 0.37%)



#55 G-Man

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 09:55 AM

So we are leading th ecountry in growth interesting.

I often wonder why Victorians are so growth averse. I would love to see the city trying to attract more business here which would in turn help emlployment which would grow the city.

The founders of our city went forward with the idea that the city should grow and somehow we lost that founding spirit and are instead content to be a grumpy older sibling who was eclipsed by their younger brother. I am not saying that we should try and be bigger than Vancouver but we could certainly try and be our own city with ambition rather than just sitting back and acepting that we are past our prime.

#56 Hotel Mike

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 09:58 AM

Well put, G Man.

#57 spanky123

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 10:51 AM

So we are leading th ecountry in growth interesting.

I often wonder why Victorians are so growth averse. I would love to see the city trying to attract more business here which would in turn help emlployment which would grow the city.

The founders of our city went forward with the idea that the city should grow and somehow we lost that founding spirit and are instead content to be a grumpy older sibling who was eclipsed by their younger brother. I am not saying that we should try and be bigger than Vancouver but we could certainly try and be our own city with ambition rather than just sitting back and acepting that we are past our prime.


I find it amusing that for the past many years we have been attracting boomers and retirees by converting our apartment blocks and downtown open space to condos yet we are suprised to hear that once those people are here, they don't want anyone else coming?

Lets face it, many people retire to Victoria because they didn't want the rat race and conjestion of the city they were leaving!

#58 G-Man

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 08:52 PM

^ Well that is too bad for them. They should have checked out whether the city they were moving to was a city first.

#59 Baro

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 09:59 PM

I'm going to move to Toronto to get away from office buildings and throw a fit if they don't suddenly change their city to accommodate me.

It's not my problem that some people have ridiculous and unrealistic expectations of a city.
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#60 Mike K.

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Posted 20 September 2010 - 01:12 PM

We're still growing...

Victoria population increases by 2,600 between 2009 and 2010
By Mike Kozakowski, VibrantVictoria.ca
http://vibrantvictor...-2009-and-2010/

The Capital Regional District has released its 2010 population estimate. The document shows the capital’s population (not including the Gulf Islands) has increased by over 2,600 individuals since mid-2009.

The estimate, based on the 2006 Census of Canada, approximates growth in the region year-over-year using a 2.9% undercount, and pegs the Victoria census metropolitan area’s total population at 356,538 persons.[...]


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