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Victoria population discussion | Census data | CRD projections


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#441 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 05:06 AM

Almost universally, I’ve seen this story portrayed as a positive all across the country in the media.


Non-official languages flourishing in Greater Victoria

Speakers of French and non-official languages on the rise in Greater Victoria

https://www.vicnews....eater-victoria/




I’m not so sure a population increasingly less able to speak English and French is necessarily a good thing. For those individuals, or those they must interact with.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 19 August 2022 - 05:07 AM.


#442 LJ

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 07:47 PM

I'm not sure if they are less able to speak English or French, they just don't use it at home, perhaps.


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#443 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 07:16 AM

Greater Victoria could see 485,000 residents by 2041

 

Statistics Canada predicts Greater Victoria will grow, become more diverse by 2041

 

https://www.vicnews....idents-by-2041/

 

 

 

This projection emerges out of data released earlier in September by Statistics Canada spelling out demographic projections up to 2041. According to the 2021 census, Victoria Census Metropolitan Area had a population of 397,237 people. The projected figure of 485,000 — a projected increase of 22 per cent within two decades — represents one of three possible scenarios, namely, the high immigration scenario.

 

The two other scenarios also spell out significant but smaller increases. Under the low immigration scenario, Victoria CMA would reach a population of 457,000 by 2041. The reference scenario — which serves as the starting point for both the high and low immigration scenarios — projects a future population of 473,000. Overall, the projections identify immigration — rather than fertility — as the main source of population growth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Immigration, of course, is completely within our control.   We could turn it off today, to allow housing to catch up.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 22 September 2022 - 07:19 AM.

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#444 dasmo

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 08:50 AM

 

Immigration, of course, is completely within our control.   We could turn it off today, to allow housing to catch up.

This is another verboten topic. Notice how no politician brings this simple fact up in regards to the housing crisis. 


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#445 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 09:16 AM

The more important figure is the ratio of residents to full-time residences.

 

As of the 2021 census, there are 397,237 people in the CMA, and 176,676 full-time homes (186,674 if you count vacation properties).

 

That's 2.25 people per residence.

 

If we are to maintain that ratio, we will require 39,000-units of new housing, in 19 years. That equates to 2,052-units built per year, every year. Now, the ratio of residents:unit is falling, which by 2041 could actually be lower than 2.25, probably closer to 2.1 or 2.0. For the sake of argument, we'll need about 40,000-units of new housing.

 

Can we do it?


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#446 Sparky

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 09:43 AM

^ Increasing the housing supply is only part of the equation… the infrastructure needs to increase as well.

Our medical infrastructure is at the breaking point now. We will need 25% more hospitals, clinics and doctors … in addition to police, ambulance and other services.

#447 Citified.ca

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:05 AM

^yes, excellent point. We are failing on all of those fronts, currently.

 

39,000 to 44,000 new units of housing are required, to accommodate 88,000 new residents.

 

Greater Victoria must add up to 44,000-units of new housing by 2041 to meet population growth estimate

https://victoria.cit...rowth-estimate/


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#448 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:06 AM

^ or it could just not grow. And population could increase elsewhere. Where it’s cheaper to build.

#449 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:26 AM

You really want to know what's crazy? We've been down this road before. And forecasters were only off ...by 40%.

 

As valuable as proper planning and statistical guidance is, prior population projections for Greater Victoria have also been wrong, forecasting a much slower rate of population growth between the 1990s and 2020s than what occurred. Projections were pegged at a 1% annual growth rate on average, while growth occurred closer to 1.4% per annum.

 

So 88,000 might be on the 'high' side, but it could also be 20% lower, or 40% lower, than the real-world final tally. Are we ready for 105,000 or 125,000 more people in 20 years?

 

Because we were supposed to be at a population of 360,000 right now, not 400,000.


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#450 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:37 AM

What actions must we take to be “ready? . Maybe it’ll just happen as it happens and we’ll adjust accordingly.

It’s not like we are going to widen roads or something.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 22 September 2022 - 11:38 AM.


#451 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:50 AM

We're going to stumble and fumble our way through it, I'm sure.


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