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Victoria population discussion | Census data | CRD projections


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#441 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 05:06 AM

Almost universally, I’ve seen this story portrayed as a positive all across the country in the media.


Non-official languages flourishing in Greater Victoria

Speakers of French and non-official languages on the rise in Greater Victoria

https://www.vicnews....eater-victoria/




I’m not so sure a population increasingly less able to speak English and French is necessarily a good thing. For those individuals, or those they must interact with.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 19 August 2022 - 05:07 AM.


#442 LJ

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 07:47 PM

I'm not sure if they are less able to speak English or French, they just don't use it at home, perhaps.


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#443 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 07:16 AM

Greater Victoria could see 485,000 residents by 2041

 

Statistics Canada predicts Greater Victoria will grow, become more diverse by 2041

 

https://www.vicnews....idents-by-2041/

 

 

 

This projection emerges out of data released earlier in September by Statistics Canada spelling out demographic projections up to 2041. According to the 2021 census, Victoria Census Metropolitan Area had a population of 397,237 people. The projected figure of 485,000 — a projected increase of 22 per cent within two decades — represents one of three possible scenarios, namely, the high immigration scenario.

 

The two other scenarios also spell out significant but smaller increases. Under the low immigration scenario, Victoria CMA would reach a population of 457,000 by 2041. The reference scenario — which serves as the starting point for both the high and low immigration scenarios — projects a future population of 473,000. Overall, the projections identify immigration — rather than fertility — as the main source of population growth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Immigration, of course, is completely within our control.   We could turn it off today, to allow housing to catch up.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 22 September 2022 - 07:19 AM.

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#444 dasmo

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 08:50 AM

 

Immigration, of course, is completely within our control.   We could turn it off today, to allow housing to catch up.

This is another verboten topic. Notice how no politician brings this simple fact up in regards to the housing crisis. 


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#445 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 09:16 AM

The more important figure is the ratio of residents to full-time residences.

 

As of the 2021 census, there are 397,237 people in the CMA, and 176,676 full-time homes (186,674 if you count vacation properties).

 

That's 2.25 people per residence.

 

If we are to maintain that ratio, we will require 39,000-units of new housing, in 19 years. That equates to 2,052-units built per year, every year. Now, the ratio of residents:unit is falling, which by 2041 could actually be lower than 2.25, probably closer to 2.1 or 2.0. For the sake of argument, we'll need about 40,000-units of new housing.

 

Can we do it?


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#446 Sparky

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 09:43 AM

^ Increasing the housing supply is only part of the equation… the infrastructure needs to increase as well.

Our medical infrastructure is at the breaking point now. We will need 25% more hospitals, clinics and doctors … in addition to police, ambulance and other services.
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#447 Citified.ca

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:05 AM

^yes, excellent point. We are failing on all of those fronts, currently.

 

39,000 to 44,000 new units of housing are required, to accommodate 88,000 new residents.

 

Greater Victoria must add up to 44,000-units of new housing by 2041 to meet population growth estimate

https://victoria.cit...rowth-estimate/


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#448 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:06 AM

^ or it could just not grow. And population could increase elsewhere. Where it’s cheaper to build.

#449 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:26 AM

You really want to know what's crazy? We've been down this road before. And forecasters were only off ...by 40%.

 

As valuable as proper planning and statistical guidance is, prior population projections for Greater Victoria have also been wrong, forecasting a much slower rate of population growth between the 1990s and 2020s than what occurred. Projections were pegged at a 1% annual growth rate on average, while growth occurred closer to 1.4% per annum.

 

So 88,000 might be on the 'high' side, but it could also be 20% lower, or 40% lower, than the real-world final tally. Are we ready for 105,000 or 125,000 more people in 20 years?

 

Because we were supposed to be at a population of 360,000 right now, not 400,000.


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#450 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:37 AM

What actions must we take to be “ready? . Maybe it’ll just happen as it happens and we’ll adjust accordingly.

It’s not like we are going to widen roads or something.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 22 September 2022 - 11:38 AM.


#451 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:50 AM

We're going to stumble and fumble our way through it, I'm sure.


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#452 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 01 November 2022 - 08:39 AM

The federal government is planning a massive increase in the number of immigrants entering Canada, with a goal of seeing 500,000 people arrive each year by 2025.
 
Immigration Minister Sean Fraser revealed the new targets today, saying the move is necessary to ensure Canada's economic prosperity.
 
 
 
 

The new plan puts an emphasis on increasing the number immigrants who will be admitted based on their work skills or experience over the next three years.

 

Ottawa is planning a more moderate increase in the number of family members who will be admitted into the country, and a decrease in the number of refugees.

 

The new plan comes days after Statistics Canada reported a record 23 per cent of people in the country are landed immigrants or permanent residents.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 01 November 2022 - 08:41 AM.


#453 max.bravo

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Posted 01 November 2022 - 08:42 AM

I'm ok with it, as long as there are proportional increases in transportation infrastructure, housing, and medical care.


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#454 aastra

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Posted 01 November 2022 - 09:27 AM

 

The federal government is planning a massive increase in the number of immigrants entering Canada, with a goal of seeing 500,000 people arrive each year by 2025.

 

 

To summarize:
 

1) the housing shortage has become a desperate crisis, so therefore we need more people
2) human environmental impact has become a desperate crisis, so therefore we need more people
3) addiction has become a desperate crisis, so therefore we need easier access to drugs
4) staffing shortages have become a desperate crisis, so therefore we need to push people in affected fields to resign or retire ASAP, en masse

Anybody who notices inconsistencies with any of these premises is surely a terrorist and should be shot without a trial (but shot without trial in a loving and caring way, of course, in the spirit of justice, and using a good firearm rather than a bad firearm).


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#455 Nparker

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Posted 01 November 2022 - 09:30 AM

Well summarized aastra.



#456 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 02 November 2022 - 09:31 AM

screenshot-twitter.com-2022.11.02-13_30_23.png



#457 spanky123

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Posted 02 November 2022 - 09:52 AM

^ Driving up votes for the Liberals.


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#458 Ismo07

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Posted 02 November 2022 - 10:00 AM


 

I'm reading that migration was at 8% in 2008 and has dropped steadily to 6.188 last year...  It is high but we are big....


Edited by Ismo07, 02 November 2022 - 10:01 AM.


#459 Mike K.

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Posted 02 November 2022 - 10:39 AM

Migration? As in between provinces, 6.2% of the population moved around?


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#460 Sparky

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Posted 02 November 2022 - 11:37 AM

… and 6% of them could be moving west?

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