247 replies to this topic

[RFS]

As of my visit a week and a half ago all the floor plans I enquired on were available on pretty much every floor except the 8th and a couple others and all the estate collection units were still available so glad to hear it's picked up. They did say 2 years strata could be thrown in still and open to offers. I got the impression they were worried because I got a call this week asking my interest and if I had any feedback. 

There seems to be a real slow down going on.  I know two people who have been trying to sell their places since the summer and haven't had any offers (houses, so not related directly to bayview or Hudson but still interesting)

[spanky123]

 

Its interesting that Bosa is backing out, there is a cautionary mood in development and construction at the moment.  Has anyone heard any rumors as to why Bosa is out?

 

Not specific to Bosa but:

 

1. Spec tax

2. Rising interest rates

3. General investment market malaise

4. Warnings about market pricing in Victoria / Vancouver

5. Construction and materials costs.

[Mike K.]

People still gotta live somewhere.

I’m also hearing that would-be rental projects are turning their focus back on the condo market due to costs.

[spanky123]

People still gotta live somewhere.

I’m also hearing that would-be rental projects are turning their focus back on the condo market due to costs.

 

Not only costs but they will have a hard time getting their projects funded when rent increases are restricted to inflation and they have to rent x% of units below market value forever.

 

I keep harping back to the community plan but if we accept that nearly 100% of the increase in population will come from retirees in the next 20 years then we need to look at other markets. For the past couple of years, anyone with a home in Toronto or Vancouver (ie millions of people) could afford to sell it, buy any luxury condo downtown and still have $500K to $1M+ in cash left over. As prices come down in those markets and sales slow, that will also dictate where people choose to retire.

[Mike K.]

Hold on. Retirees or 20-somethings? Helps says the fastest growing demographic is Millennials+Gen Z's.

[spanky123]

Hold on. Retirees or 20-somethings? Helps says the fastest growing demographic is Millennials+Gen Z's.

 

I am referring to the CoV community plan which was updated 2 years ago. Look at page 21. The popluation of 25-44 year olds will decline significantly. So Helps is misleading folks again, what is new with that?!

 

https://www.victoria...d_Sept_2016.pdf

[Mike K.]

Yeah! Thanks for that.

[tjv]

For the past couple of years, anyone with a home in Toronto or Vancouver (ie millions of people) could afford to sell it, buy any luxury condo downtown and still have $500K to $1M+ in cash left over. As prices come down in those markets and sales slow, that will also dictate where people choose to retire.

I agree, but the problem is the SFH market has basically fallen off a cliff in almost all markets.  In order to buy that luxury condo they still have to sell as they retire/downsize.  I think a good percentage of people have their retirement plans funded when they sell their house

[spanky123]

I agree, but the problem is the SFH market has basically fallen off a cliff in almost all markets.  In order to buy that luxury condo they still have to sell as they retire/downsize.  I think a good percentage of people have their retirement plans funded when they sell their house

 

The magic retirement number is about $750K and 90% of Canadians don't have a plan for saving that amount. Average savings are about $180K. https://business.fin...ll-of-canadians

 

I think that you are right in that there will likely be an excess of SFHs in some areas as some people look to downsize. It is not at all uncommon though for people to stay in their houses as long as they can, especially since most are paid for by that time. I could be wrong but I think that most downtown condos are purchased by people moving here from out of town then by people relocating within town.

Edited by spanky123, 09 October 2018 - 11:38 AM.

[Bingo]

 I could be wrong but I think that most downtown condos are purchased by people moving here from out of town then by people relocating within town.

 

People with JOBS or people who know how to WORK.  

[Mike K.]

I could be wrong but I think that most downtown condos are purchased by people moving here from out of town then by people relocating within town.

 

It's very project specific, but you'd be surprised at just how many locals are downsizing into condos from SFD's.

[aastra]

 

There seems to be a real slow down going on.

 

No sign of slowing at Dockside Green. It maintains that same steady pace.

[tiger11]

I'd have to agree there has been a stabilization of the market. The general consensus I've gotten from commercial underwriters is they are wanting projects looked at a bit closer with a higher contingency /developers profit included in projections. In my opinion this is more than warranted given:

 

- rising interest rates

- supply increasing (tip of iceberg has come to market) This is especially true for some markets such as the rental apartment market in langford

 

At the end of the day know one really knows. But the real estate market has historically followed a cyclical trend which if continued (which appears to be the case) will materialize into a period of stagnant price growth. Of course exceptions will exist; however, if i was looking to buy I would hold off for the time being. 

[Mike K.]

If you can afford to buy, buy.

What exactly are you waiting for? To save $25k while paying $30k in rent? To wait until the price drops $30k but mortgage rates rise to 5%? Playing the waiting game is so often a losers proposition that I would urge anyone who can buy to buy and save themself the drama.

[songheesguy]

If you can afford to buy, buy.

What exactly are you waiting for? To save $25k while paying $30k in rent? To wait until the price drops $30k but mortgage rates rise to 5%? Playing the waiting game is so often a losers proposition that I would urge anyone who can buy to buy and save themself the drama.

I agree with you 100% Mike K. Out of all my friends that have been waiting to buy for the last 5 years because the market is crashing they could have had some really good equity by now. One thing about downtown is the rental vacancy is so low that even if the market took a small dip the rent you could get would be enough to carry the condo until it picked up again. I follow real estate in large US cities and our prices are still not crazy high IMO. I am surprised more americans don't buy vacation condos here because with their exchange they can get a lot despite spec tax etc

[Nparker]

Waiting for the perfect time to buy one's primary residence is a bit like waiting for the perfect time to start a family.

[tiger11]

i am waiting until supply is more abundant and buyers are not as pressured to make offers without full due diligence. Thankfully I don't have any rent to pay!

 

Victorias res development is at a pace that is unheard of as we all know. I am of the belief that the market will soften (which it has arguably shown signs of in recent months) over the the next few years. 

 

Having said that multifam development land has been extremely strong especially in an around the Victoria Core. The amount of deals in negotiations is high with strong price points.  However, the prevailing sentiment seems to be that developers are purchasing with the intention of bringing product to the market in time for the next upward cycle.

[MarkoJ]

Waiting for the perfect time to buy one's primary residence is a bit like waiting for the perfect time to start a family.

 

That's a good one! 

[MarkoJ]

I really don't think we will have a huge supply problem from the new builds. If there is excess supply it will come from weak demand and supply of re-sales.

 

You have developments like the Encore that are sold out. You have developments like Jukebox and 989 Johnson that are 70-90% sold and won't bring a glut of unsold inventory onto market.

 

And then you have stuff like Capital Park and this Bayview tower that are three years out. 

 

I don't think we have a condo overbuilding problem but we could have an oversupply problem if the market in general takes a dive.

[Hotel Mike]

When we speak of the west coast as a "market" we may be discounting a demand factor that is inherent. We live in one of the most beautiful places in the world. I remember back in the '80s, Toronto was the most expensive real estate market in Canada. Victoria was down the list. I could never understand why Toronto was so expensive, when you could be living out here. Retirees, nature lovers, sea seekers will all continue to desire this area. I think we'll remain fairly steady.