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Vibrating Victoria - Earthquakes in the Capital/Vancouver Island regions


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#21 KublaKhan

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 01:48 PM

^Are you serious? I'll take that bet. Unreinforced masonry, unmaintained for decades plus the fact that the Janion site has been identified by the Province as a moderate/high risk area in the event of a strong earthquake. The Janion will fall like a house of cards in a major quake.

A scene from the 1966 NFB film "A Townscape Rediscovered" shows how a gentle tap from a wrecking ball sends the entire wall of the old brick public market on the Centennial Square site tumbling to the ground.


I was kidding. But since you're being so earnest about it, I'll raise the bet.

Officially: The Janion...last gal at the dance post-Big One. The bet is now $20 CAN.

#22 Marilyn

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 02:15 PM

Got your quake kit by the door?

1. boots
2. heavy gloves

There will be glass everywhere.

#23 Marilyn

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 02:18 PM

I was kidding. But since you're being so earnest about it, I'll raise the bet.

Officially: The Janion...last gal at the dance post-Big One. The bet is now $20 CAN.


And how will you collect that bet?

My bets:
Banks and Carnagie Library will remain standing. The old BC Telephone building I imagine would have withstood a 7 mag.

#24 Mike K.

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 02:20 PM

The Wing in Vic West will be coming down :)

And I'll throw 100 pesos at that bet.

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#25 mat

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 05:12 PM

The TC had a risk assessment map a week ago showing the areas within the CRD prone to slippage, slides and subsidence in the event (or certainty?) of a quake. Quite interesting... note where Jubilee Hospital is!

http://www.empr.gov....s/composite.htm

#26 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 07:24 PM

And how will you collect that bet?

My bets:
Banks and Carnagie Library will remain standing. The old BC Telephone building I imagine would have withstood a 7 mag.


Ya, that Carnegie library looks like big bricks.

#27 Baro

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 07:50 PM

Yay I'm in a big area of the safest type. Looks like most of rockland hill is very safe. Thank you Rockland Gneiss, hardest rock on the island they say.

What about jubilee? How it seems to be on a little island of safe surrounded by moderate danger?

#28 mat

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 10:40 PM

Yay I'm in a big area of the safest type. Looks like most of rockland hill is very safe. Thank you Rockland Gneiss, hardest rock on the island they say.

What about jubilee? How it seems to be on a little island of safe surrounded by moderate danger?


It looks to me that Jubilee will be cut off as all the major feeder roads are in higher risk zones. The hospital might survive major damage, but staff, and new patients, will be unable to get there.

I think the map is insightful

#29 Holden West

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 10:52 PM

You need two things for a real good earthquake: Charlton Heston and Sensurround™.
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
-City of Victoria website, 2009

#30 KublaKhan

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Posted 23 May 2008 - 08:40 AM

Since one of the two are now...um, complete...can we assume that there will be no earthquake?

#31 Holden West

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Posted 23 May 2008 - 09:16 AM

There will still be an earthquake but it won't have any melodrama. "you damn dirty earthquake! It's made from people!!"
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
-City of Victoria website, 2009

#32 Marilyn

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Posted 23 May 2008 - 12:56 PM

The TC had a risk assessment map a week ago showing the areas within the CRD prone to slippage, slides and subsidence in the event (or certainty?) of a quake. Quite interesting... note where Jubilee Hospital is!

http://www.empr.gov....s/composite.htm


The old peat bog/Johnson Street ravine area is RED and looks like it would reclaim its right to exist.

Thanks for the link to that excellent earthquake map.

#33 Holden West

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Posted 16 August 2009 - 07:15 PM


'Big one' may hit close to Seattle


Tacoma News Tribune
By Les Blumenthal, Washington, D.C., bureau
Published: 08/16/09 8:30 am | Updated: 08/16/09 8:30 am

WASHINGTON -- Using sophisticated seismometers and global positioning systems, scientists have been able to track minute movements along two massive tectonic plates colliding 25 miles or so underneath the Puget Sound basin.

Their early findings suggest a mega-earthquake could strike closer to Tacoma and Seattle than earlier thought.

[...]

What is unique about the deep tremors, which occur in an area stretching from roughly Olympia to Vancouver Island, is that they reappear roughly every 15 months. While tremors have been detected elsewhere along the Cascadia subduction zone, none are as regular or prolonged as those in the Puget Sound basin, Dragert said.

[...]

"Every 15 months it's like tightening the guitar string a little more," Dragert said. "You don't know whether it will take it beyond the break zone."

The deep tremors are being tracked at other subduction zones around the globe, including in Japan, Mexico, Chile and Alaska.
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
-City of Victoria website, 2009

#34 Holden West

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 08:20 AM

Old article:

EARTHQUAKE AWARENESS - Few buildings will survive


By Malcolm Curtis
Times Colonist staff
Photos & Times Colonist Illustration
May 10, 1998

B.C.'s legislature will likely collapse if the big one strikes. So too will most of city hall, including council chambers, most of old town's office buildings, the Royal Jubilee Hospital, most schools in the region, most local firehalls and that grand old dame of hospitality - the Empress. "Any building with reinforced masonry is vulnerable to an earthquake," said Doug Koch, Victoria's planning manager.

The city has not done an inventory of which buildings are most at risk. But Koch can only think of a handful of buildings in the city designed to be usable after a major tremor.

These include the new city police building at 850 Caledonia St., and the recently opened James Bay firehall.

In a referendum several years ago, voters rejected plans to seismically upgrade city hall.

And it would take a potful of money to address various other shortcomings in the region, including bridges connecting Esquimalt to the rest of Vancouver Island.

Clive Timms, deputy city engineer, said the city has budgeted $60,000 for design work this year for the earthquake-proofing of Point Ellice Bridge, also known as the Bay Street Bridge. Estimated cost is $1.5 million, with the project identified in the city's five- year capital budget.

But Timms said there's little that can be done for the city's other major span, the Johnson Street road and rail bridge.

"We don't regard it as seismically resistant," he said. "It's such an old bridge . . . we don't think it can be seismically upgraded. In a major earthquake we expect it to be inoperable."

Rick Steele, project manager at B.C. Buildings Corp., said it would take "billions" to upgrade government buildings so they can continue to operate after a quake.

But Steele said some of the major new office buildings meet the building code's latest seismic requirements. These focus on the safety of building occupants rather than whether it will be operable after a major tremor.

The recently renovated St. Ann's Academy "is in excellent shape" along with the Jack Davis, Sussex and Selkirk Waterfront buildings, he said. "That's a fair chunk of our office space."

However, most of the old town buildings are "problematic," along with the parliament buildings, Steele said.

The government has a limited capital budget for upgrading buildings that has to balance economic benefits with costs. And while thousands of workers could be working in potentially unsafe buildings, "we simply couldn't vacate all the buildings downtown."

The Provincial Emergency Program's headquarters, located on Boleskine Road in Saanich, are designed to be completely functional after a quake.

Children could be most at risk in such an emergency, especially if one strikes during school hours.

Carole James, chairwoman of the Greater Victoria school board, said only four of the region's 54 schools are geared for the big one.

In 1994 the province cut off funding for seismic upgrading of schools unless buildings are being renovated for other reasons, said James.

Yet the province has committed millions of dollars for construction to replace portable buildings at overcrowded schools.

Seismic upgrading of schools is a "really big issue" in Victoria, since it is located in one of the most earthquake-prone areas in Canada, said James.

"We have some of the oldest schools in the province but we don't have the overcrowding that other schools have."

Sir James Douglas is one of the few schools to be rebuilt with quakes in mind. Other seismically fit schools include Strawberry Vale, Rogers and Lampson.

Ironically, experts say home may be the safest place to be in a quake, especially if you live in a wood-frame house built on solid rock.

The Energy Ministry's geological survey branch is developing a map to show the most hazardous areas in the Greater Victoria area during an earthquake.

Branch geologist Vic Levson said the map should be ready this summer. A rough outline of the situation in Victoria shows much of the city is located in areas where the hazards are high.

Large sections of the city around the harbor are built on fill. Elsewhere, residential areas are built on peat or thick layers of clay.

Buildings have a high likelihood of collapsing in such areas but the risk depends on the way the building or structure has been engineered, Levson said.
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
-City of Victoria website, 2009

#35 sebberry

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 10:45 AM

My *floor* shakes when my upstairs neighbors stomp around. I wonder if that means my building will wobble around and remain standing or if it will collapse into...

http://bitcast-r.v1....k-up-sticks.jpg

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#36 Caramia

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 11:11 AM

I used to live in Cook Street Village on the peat bog. Our house shook and things fell off shelves every time the big trucks would restock Food Country (Shop Easy) Now I live in Rockland I haven't felt the earth move since I moved here. I swear you could be blasting next door and we probably wouldn't feel it. Makes me wonder about the plans for that old mansion on Rockland. Maybe it should be our new civic 'emergency shelter' in case of the big one.
Nowadays most people die of a sort of creeping common sense, and discover when it is too late that the only things one never regrets are one's mistakes.
Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Picture of Dorian Gray, 1891

#37 sebberry

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 11:20 AM

It shook that badly with a truck going by?

My place will shake when the busses go by. I'll feel a little vibration in the floor and that's about it.

My building is wood frame but the concrete holding it up over the parking garage looks a little dodgy. Around the edges of support columns I can see decent sized pebbles that were mixed in with the concrete. I'm not a cement expert but it looks odd.

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#38 Caramia

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 11:22 AM

Yes - that house is where the new construction is in Cook Street Village. On the upside, we could dig pure peat from our yard, as well as nice blue clay.
Nowadays most people die of a sort of creeping common sense, and discover when it is too late that the only things one never regrets are one's mistakes.
Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Picture of Dorian Gray, 1891

#39 sebberry

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 11:30 AM

Yes - that house is where the new construction is in Cook Street Village. On the upside, we could dig pure peat from our yard, as well as nice blue clay.


Sounds like living in a playhouse on a trampoline would have been just as good :o

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#40 Bob Fugger

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Posted 28 September 2009 - 11:41 AM

It shook that badly with a truck going by?

My place will shake when the busses go by. I'll feel a little vibration in the floor and that's about it.

My building is wood frame but the concrete holding it up over the parking garage looks a little dodgy. Around the edges of support columns I can see decent sized pebbles that were mixed in with the concrete. I'm not a cement expert but it looks odd.


My house shakes when the bus goes by, too! Not as violently that it knocks stuff off the shelves.

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