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2022 City of Victoria Election


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#81 lanforod

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:14 PM

Plenty of these in Saanich too. Newby, Chambers, Mersereau...

Edited by lanforod, 24 October 2018 - 04:15 PM.


#82 Bernard

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:14 PM

Here's Rose Henry. Perhaps the most consistent numbers of any candidate.

2002: 3,491 (15th place)
2005: 3,339 (15th place)
2008: 3,372 (11th place)
2010: 1,799 (4th place)*
2011: 4,866 (12th place)
2018: 4,076 (17th place)

*Sonya Chandler quitting special by-election

---

Here's another interesting stat taken from Bernard's page (updated to include new results)

The number is the total votes for the candidate that won the eighth and final seat on council
2018 12,245 - Marianne Alto
2014 8,017 - Chris Coleman
2011 6,793 - Chris Coleman
2008 6,002 - John Luton
2005 5,193 - Bea Holland
2002 6,090 - Bea Holland
1999 4,809 - Jane Lunt
1996 3,662 - Jane Lunt


Thanks for writing that post, it gives me some ideas for data analysis

Also, on my table of results I am missed some, especially in the 90s. If you know how I could get those results you would make happy

#83 Bernard

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:16 PM

Plenty of these in Saanich too. Newby, Chambers, Mersereau...


Saanich also had a by-election à year ago and the higher media coverage all the candidates helped them in 2018(other than Art Pollard)
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#84 Bernard

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:19 PM

*sigh*


Few people could remember the losing candidates when it was only a three year, with a four year term it is even worse. Till I wrote up the results for 2018 with the changes from 2014 I had forgotten you had run, sorry

#85 rmpeers

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:50 PM

*sigh*


On the upside, now you've got your campaign slogan for next time.

Too soon?

But seriously, I voted for you, and people seemed to regard you highly. Would you care to share any reflections on why you didn't make it?
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#86 Bernard

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 05:10 PM

Rob inspired me to look at some more stats

 

Saanich
Election     8th place            9th place               Margin 
1993     Judy Brownoff   4,850  Leif Wergelund     4,750    100
1996     John Garrison   6,935  Irene Block        6,719    216
1999     John Garrison   8,261  Joan Barton        7,363    898
2002     Nicola Wade     7,546  John Garrison      6,354  1,192
2005     Vicki Sanders   6,805  Ian Graeme         6,444    361
2008     Paul Gerrard    8,474  Rob Wickson        6,970  1,504
2011     Nicola Wade     9,437  Rob Wickson        7,801  1,636
2014     Leif Wergelund 12,107  Rebecca Mersereau 12,077     30
2018     Karen Harper   11,713  Kathleen Burton   11,289    424
Two 9th place finishers were later elected and one incumbent came in 9th.

Langford
Election     6th place            7th place            Margin
1996     John Goudy       562   Dave Dalby        507     45    
1999     Heather Ashton 1,242   John Crook      1,171     71
2002     Matt Sahlstrom 1,930   John Crook      1,885     45
2005     Matt Sahlstrom 1,730   Ian Mckenzie    1,561    169
2008     Matt Sahlstrom 1,859   Steve Hurdle    1,419    440
2011     Roger Wade     1,640   Grant McLachlan 1,219    421
2014     Matt Sahlstrom 2,174   Jim Munro       1,328    846
2018     Roger Wade     2,948   Wendy Hobbs     2,712    236
Interesting in Langford that no 7th place finisher was either an incumbent or someone who later won an election.   For the last six elections, only two different guys have finished in 6th

Victoria
Election     8th place             9th place               Margin
1990    Alastair Craighead 4,814  Howard Markson  4,517     297
1993    Jane Lunt          3,124  Bis Whitby      2,956     168
1996    Jane Lunt          3,662  Gene Miller     3,146     561
1999    Jane Lunt          4,809  Chris Coleman   4,736      73
2002    Bea Holland        6,090  David McLean    6,010      80
2005    Bea Holland        5,193  Chantal Brodeur 5,152      41
2008    John Luton         6,002  Rob Randall     3,737   2,265 - yup, the biggest gap between winners and losers in all these races
2011    Chris Coleman      6,793  John Luton      6,343     350
2014    Chris Coleman      8,017  Erik Kaye       7,295     722
2018    Marianne Alto     10,245  Stephen Andrew  9,098   1,147
Chris Coleman and Jane Lunt are on this list three times.   Bea Holland and John Luton were on twice.  From 1993 to 2014 one of these four was always the 8th place finisher


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#87 Belleprincess

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 06:11 PM

On the upside, now you've got your campaign slogan for next time.

Too soon?

But seriously, I voted for you, and people seemed to regard you highly. Would you care to share any reflections on why you didn't make it?


I voted for you too. Out of all the youngesters (I’m a youngester too) you showed the most promise.
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#88 Awaiting Juno

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Posted 29 October 2018 - 09:54 AM

I think the volume of votes needed speaks to the fact that people do use "all of their votes" and that voter turnout is likely on an upswing.  



#89 Mike K.

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Posted 29 October 2018 - 09:57 AM

Yes! It would make sense that people are no longer just checking off their top five, they're voting strategically with full ballots. That has to be it.


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#90 Bernard

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Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:49 PM

Yes! It would make sense that people are no longer just checking off their top five, they're voting strategically with full ballots. That has to be it.

the average number of votes cast per voter ballot has not really changed in the last 20 years, it hovers around 6 in both Victoria and Saanich 



#91 DavidL

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Posted 29 October 2018 - 06:39 PM

I'm looking forward to the poll by poll breakdowns as I'm very interested in the advance polls at UVic and Our Place.


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#92 Baro

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 10:37 AM

I wish we could some how get a vote by vote breakdown with facebook/google levels of information and demographics while retaining privacy.  Impossible, but I'm always so curious about those things.  Get everyone to write a short essay on why they're voting for what :)


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#93 rmpeers

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 04:32 PM

I'm looking forward to the poll by poll breakdowns as I'm very interested in the advance polls at UVic and Our Place.


By the way, who selects where polling places will be, eg, Our Place?
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#94 FogPub

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 09:46 PM

^ More to the point, the one place you couldn't vote was the most logical place TO vote: City Hall.  Can't be that much extra expense to keep it open one Saturday every four years...

 

And this was true in most of the muni's, not just CoV.



#95 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:04 AM

By the way, who selects where polling places will be, eg, Our Place?

 

camosun interurban and uvic still seem odd to me so far out of the municipality.


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#96 tedward

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 09:25 AM

camosun interurban and uvic still seem odd to me so far out of the municipality.

 

I voted at UVic. Very convenient. :)


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#97 Rob Randall

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 09:46 AM

In 2008, 2011 and 2014 the "business community" recruited a mayoral candidate to run; respectively, Rob Reid, Paul Brown and Ida Chong. All three entered the race relatively late in the game and were somewhat reluctant candidates--in 2011 Peter Pollen angrily told Paul Brown to get tough and use "evangelical force" against Dean Fortin in an email that was accidentally leaked. 

 

2018 was much different. There was no obvious "business candidate" (however you wish to define that). Stephen Hammond was the main challenger and while many in the business community liked what he had to say I don't know if he was "recruited" as much as he self-selected. The business vote was distributed among the four main candidates.

 

Will the business community finally rally around an electable candidate in 2022? Or is the concept of a business candidate an ancient relic of the Bob Cross/Frank Carson past?


Edited by Rob Randall, 31 October 2018 - 09:54 AM.

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"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#98 Jackerbie

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 10:43 AM

By the way, who selects where polling places will be, eg, Our Place?

 

For Victoria, it's up to the Chief Election Officer, as per Election Procedures Bylaw No. 02-013

 

Edit: And for the record, that position was held by Chris Coates this time around


Edited by Jackerbie, 31 October 2018 - 10:46 AM.


#99 Rob Randall

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 10:51 AM

Come to think of it, a few candidates owned car dealerships: 

 

Peter Pollen, mayor: Peter Pollen Ford

Frank Carson, councillor, unsuccessful mayoral candidate; Suburban Motors

Kelly Armstrong, unsuccessful candidate(?) Glen Oak Ford


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#100 Bernard

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:01 AM

The bigger issue is not a business candidate but the lack of organization and effort.   Whatever people think of Lisa Helps, in 2014 and 2018 she campaigned harder than all the opposition combined.

 

If a centre-right business candidate wants to win they need to have their team and money place by July 1st and then they need to canvass every doorstep and find out who is willing to vote for them and make sure they vote on election day.   The path to winning is very clear and the losers only have themselves and their own team to blame.   And yes, I take some of that blame for one of the elections.

 

On July 1st 2022 the candidate should have $50k in the bank and at least 100 volunteers. 


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