looks like a tossup - but based on past results alone, and assuming the general disinterest in by-elections TV has a definte edge.
Stephen's supporters will vote if the weather is nice, they don't have to wait in line too long and they remember to do it. Stephanie's supporters will show up to vote if it is the only thing they do that day, drive all of their friends to the polling station, make volunteers lunch and vouch for some homeless person so that they can also vote TV. Go to a TV event or listen to the groupthink at UVIC and it is obvious that these people think they are at war with the white male establishment and the only way to establish equity is to knock the people at the top off of their unjustly earned (in their opinion) pedestal. When a group is that rabid and driven then even a small number can have a significant impact.
If TV can control the polling stations as they did in 2018 to make it very difficult or intimidating for older voters to vote while making it easier for students and their supporters then they will be hard to overcome. Also, as we saw a couple of Federal elections ago, they have no qualms at all about breaking election laws to win (ie fake polling data scandal).
Edited by spanky123, 17 October 2020 - 10:42 AM.