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US Midterm Election - 2018


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#41 nerka

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:14 AM

Not a loss for Trump? So losing control of the house is what exactly if not a loss? Doubleplusungood?

Result is exactly in line with projections from reputable projections too. Polling quite good

Trump is pitching this as a win.

 

Put it in a military analogy and it is pretty simple to understand:

 

A battle takes place

 

One side loses half the territory they were defending.

 

That side did not win.



#42 Mike K.

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:24 AM

Even with all the brouhaha, even with all the get-out-and-vote promotion celebrities provided, even with all polling showing that massive blue wave materializing and the heavily armed Black Panthers in Georgia, Congress ended up divided.

 

The last two years were dedicated to taking down the current administration and the result is pretty tame.


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#43 RFS

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:25 AM

<p>

Key takeaways:

  • Republicans were defending three things broadly: House, Senate, and a boatload of governor's mansions
  • They lost the House, outperformed expectations in the Senate and lost multiple governor races
  • No matter how much Trump paints this as a win this is a loss (Sorry Mike)
  • Democrats won the popular vote by a substantial 7%. That this translates into only a narrow house win illustrates how bad the mostly Republican gerrymanders are.
  • Governor wins are significant as they could help the Dems put a check on gerrymandering in some key states
  • Unified Republican control for two years produced only one significant piece of legislation - a tax cut targeted at the wealthy
  • With divided control there will be no significant legislation passed in the next two years barring a national emergency
  • Dems in the house will pass popular pieces of legislation designed to make the Repubs look bad by voting them down and also to highlight what they might do in 2020 if they regain the Senate. None of these will pass the Senate now of course.
  • Mueller's report will see the light of day. This is a good thing but it won't make much difference. There will be nothing in the Mueller report that will make Trump's base desert him.
  • No wall. Phew Mexico is off the hook for paying for it :-)
  • Obamacare lives on. Amazingly Republicans actually tried to campaign as the protectors of health care.
  • Dems MAY restore some fiscal sanity. Unified Republican control produced some of the largest peacetime deficits ever. Shocking to be running such big deficits at the peak of the economic cycle
  • The results should give the Dems some hope for 2020. Trump made this about him more than any recent midterm. If the popular vote was a referendum on Trump he lost badly. But of course 2020 will be different with an actual opponent to Trump that can be attacked.

  • There will be investigations of course

  • Trump will become increasingly unhinged in his attacks now that there is one branch of government he does not control

Absolutely No one expected the republicans to keep the house. It’s actually pretty impressive they kept the senate and bodes well for 2020. Also means Trump still gets to pick Supreme Court appointments.
So basically Trump can now use the democrats as a scapegoat for the next 2 years, and he too can put forward popular legislation so everyone can watch the democrats halt it. For example I suspect people won’t be too happy when the dems halt middle class tax cuts. And then he can try to win back the house in 2020.
And who knows maybe we will actually see some good bi-partisan art of the deal type stuff

#44 Mike K.

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:29 AM

That's the thing, right? Now the Democrats can't just stand on the sidelines and yell. They need to produce.


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#45 RFS

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:34 AM

Oh yeah, also having Nancy Pelosi as the speaker of the house for the next 2 years is an absolute Godsend.
She is essentially Hilary Clinton and having her in the public eye will remind Americans why they voted for Trump

#46 N E Body

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:18 AM

The takeaway from all of this is:
- the media had it wrong (again), there was no blue wave

 

Actually... the media got it right. Most, if not all, had given up on the blue wave starting 3 weeks ago. At least they did on the 5 or 6 news channels that I follow.

 

So much so that a few of them were worried that the House would also be lost.


Edited by N E Body, 07 November 2018 - 08:20 AM.


#47 Mike K.

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:26 AM

They gave up on their manufactured, sensational nonsense days ahead of the election? You don’t say ;)

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#48 amor de cosmos

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:32 AM

which is the banana republic now?
 

The systemic, nationwide voting problems plaguing Tuesday night’s midterm elections in the United States appear all the more disgraceful — and deliberate — when compared to the two remarkably efficient national elections that were conducted in Brazil just last month.

That a country poorer than the U.S., with a much shorter history of democracy, can hold such seamless, fair, participatory, and efficient elections proves that the opposite outcome in the U.S. — massive voter disenfranchisement, multi-hour voting lines, pervasive machine malfunctions, and elections that are not decided until weeks after the fact — are very easily avoided and thus likely intentional.

Brazil’s national elections are comparable in size to the U.S.’s. Although Brazil’s population is slightly less than the that of the U.S. — which is the world’s third-most populous country at roughly 325 million, while Brazil is in fifth place with roughly 210 million — Brazil has mandatory voting, a lower voting age (16), and automatic voter registration for citizens, which means vote totals are comparable. In Brazil’s October 28 run-off presidential election, roughly 110 million votes were cast, in the same range of last night’s U.S. vote total.

Yet Brazil’s elections are plagued by virtually none of the problems that mar the credibility of U.S. elections year after year. On October 7, Brazil held the first round of its presidential elections, which, like in the U.S. midterms, also included electing an entirely new lower house of federal Congress and a portion of the federal Senate, as well as governorships and state house races in all 26 Brazilian states and the federal district.

Like all Brazilian elections, the October 7 national vote was held on Sunday, the day the fewest number of people have to work, ensuring maximum voter participation. Polling closed at 5 p.m. All of the votes were fully counted, and all the results fully known, by 8:30 p.m. that night. There were no lingering unknown outcomes, weeks of uncounted votes, widespread claims of voter disenfranchisement, multi-hour lines that spread around blocks, or obstacles to registering.

The October 28 run-off, which elected Jair Bolsonaro as president and also decided the run-off races for governor in multiple states, was even smoother. Votes are electronically counted all day, but the totals are not released until the last poll closes. By the time the last state closed its polls, at 6 p.m., more than 90 percent of the votes were already counted, and the totals were instantly released. Thus, the outcomes of the presidential race and most of the gubernatorial races were known within minutes after the polls closed, and they were all fully determined within two hours of the polls closing.

Then, there’s the issue of voter participation. Voting is legally mandatory in Brazil: Every citizen over the age of 16 is automatically eligible to vote, and those over 18 are required to do so, facing a trivial fine for failing to do so (absent a valid justification). They are free to vote for “none of the candidates” or leave their ballot blank, but it is a legal duty. Still, in the last election, roughly 20 percent of voters violated that law and abstained from voting. But that means that 80 percent of the adult population voted — a far higher participation rate than any election in the U.S.

That’s because everything about the structure of Brazil’s election system, set forth in the 1989 constitution it enacted after it exited its military dictatorship, is designed to maximize, not suppress, voter participation. All citizens are automatically registered. Voting is mandatory. The elections are held on Sunday, ensuring that working people have the fewest barriers to voting, instead of in the middle of the week. Machine voting is uniform throughout the country’s 27 states.

https://theintercept...ion-in-the-u-s/

ps- he mentions the military dictatorship but doesn't say who supported it 100%. (hint: the dictatorship was anti-communist) surprising for greenwald to omit something like that.
https://nsarchive2.g...AEBB/NSAEBB465/

Edited by amor de cosmos, 07 November 2018 - 08:49 AM.

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#49 N E Body

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:44 AM

^^^  Nowhere is this more evident than the Governor's race in Georgia.



#50 amor de cosmos

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:53 AM

you must mean this:
https://www.youtube....bed/Jk02FH48Xwg

or did you mean that the person responsible for running elections was also running for governor?

#51 N E Body

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:01 AM

you must mean this:
https://www.youtube....bed/Jk02FH48Xwg

or did you mean that the person responsible for running elections was also running for governor?

 

Both, actually... and it appears that the voting problems go even deeper than that. 

 

https://www.business...idterms-2018-11


Edited by N E Body, 07 November 2018 - 09:01 AM.


#52 Greg

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:05 AM

  • Democrats regained control of the House, flipping about 35 seats.
  • Democrats flipped seven Governors
  • Democrats lost a few seats in the Senate, but that was not unexpected, given the location of the 35 seats that had races. Democrats won the overwhelming majority of the available races, flipped Nevada, probably lost Florida, and lost three seats in states that are markedly pro-Trump. Democratic Senate candidates won the popular vote 57%-43%, which is a pretty strong indication that the distribution of seats up for election was the main factor working in favor of Republicans in the Senate.
  • Virtually every pundit predicted the Republicans would hold the Senate. Most predictions gave better odds for the Republicans holding the House, than they gave the Democrats for flipping the Senate.
  • Across the nationwide House races Democrats overwhelmingly won the popular vote, increasing their margin by seven percentage points (and you might recall they were already ahead on popular vote in the 2016 election). This is one of the biggest raw vote swings in history.

*Maybe* that falls short of your definition of a blue wave, although the raw vote totals certainly argue against that, but there is no intellectually honest way to describe this as a draw, or a result favoring Republicans.


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#53 RFS

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:12 AM

  • Democrats regained control of the House, flipping about 35 seats.
  • Democrats flipped seven Governors
  • Democrats lost a few seats in the Senate, but that was not unexpected, given the location of the 35 seats that had races. Democrats won the overwhelming majority of the available races, flipped Nevada, probably lost Florida, and lost three seats in states that are markedly pro-Trump. Democratic Senate candidates won the popular vote 57%-43%, which is a pretty strong indication that the distribution of seats up for election was the main factor working in favor of Republicans in the Senate.
  • Virtually every pundit predicted the Republicans would hold the Senate. Most predictions gave better odds for the Republicans holding the House, than they gave the Democrats for flipping the Senate.
  • Across the nationwide House races Democrats overwhelmingly won the popular vote, increasing their margin by seven percentage points (and you might recall they were already ahead on popular vote in the 2016 election). This is one of the biggest raw vote swings in history.
*Maybe* that falls short of your definition of a blue wave, although the raw vote totals certainly argue against that, but there is no intellectually honest way to describe this as a draw, or a result favoring Republicans.</p>

I would say these midterms went about as well as they possibly could for Trump and the republicans. The dems have a tiny house majority, they were expecting much more, wheras the republicans senate gains were unexpected and defied polls. Trump now has a rock solid senate with no McCain or flake to get in the way.
Basically the democrats have just enough room to obstruct and block now and trump will use this to his advantage to make them look bad. I’d say this actually helps Trump win in 2020 more than if he had won the house.
As for the popular vote, I’m not sure why anyone would bring that up as it means literally nothing in this case. There are 2 senate seats per state regardless of population so if you win California and lose Montana (for example) yes you will have more votes total but it means zilch

#54 Mike K.

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:32 AM

Even WaPo is acknowledging the results are lacklustre for the Dems and dreams of a 2020 victory are fading away.

 

Two years of a non-stop onslaught by literally every media outlet, protests, antifa rallies, celebrity endorsements, television shows, movies, political rhetoric, even public shaming of Republican voters... and a slim victory in the house is all they got.


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#55 Greg

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:32 AM

Some people view the popular vote as a surrogate for a mandate, given the basic concept of democracy.

 

A few other takeaways. Democrats reclaimed the Governorship in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The three states where extremely narrow and unexpected wins by Trump gave him the Electoral College victory. Significant for three reasons: consistent with the swing in popular vote in favor of the Democrats; the ability of the Governors to provide support for candidates in the 2020 Presidential election, and the ability to stem some of the gerrymandering BS that has been going on in these states. Just look at the impact of the court-ordered redistricting in Pennsylvania, where the Democrats picked up several seats, to understand the importance of the last point. 

 

And finally, Florida voted to restore voting rights to convicted felons. This adds 1.5 Million new (disproportionately minority) voters to the Florida rolls. We've seen our last 50.1-49.9% Florida race. Florida will be a blue state in 2020.



#56 RFS

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:37 AM

And finally, Florida voted to restore voting rights to convicted felons. This adds 1.5 Million new (disproportionately minority) voters to the Florida rolls. We've seen our last 50.1-49.9% Florida race. Florida will be a blue state in 2020.


Yes this is major and maybe the biggest story of the night. Honestly a big problem for the republicans. Could be the beginning of the end as America marches inevitably towards being a single party banana republic

#57 Cassidy

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:39 AM

LOL, I love the efforts to spin this major loss as a positive for the Republicans!

 

Look ... this was 100% a referendum on Trump himself, and using whatever measuring stick you choose to use ... Trump got seriously rebuked - thumped - and stomped last night.

 

The Republicans lost the House because the majority of Americans think Trump is a shi_ty person, doing a shi_ty job, and literally taking the country down the toilet.


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#58 RFS

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:41 AM

LOL, I love the efforts to spin this major loss as a positive for the Republicans!

Look ... this was 100% a referendum on Trump himself, and using whatever measuring stick you choose to use ... Trump got seriously rebuked - thumped - and stomped last night.

The Republicans lost the House because the majority of Americans think Trump is a shi_ty person, doing a shi_ty job, and literally taking the country down the toilet.

.

Dude, Are you even reading? You keep saying this but you have been refuted. Just because you underline and use lots of .... and big spacing doesn’t make you right

#59 Mike K.

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:45 AM

You're like a bull in a China shop, Cassidy. Calm down.

 

In 2010 under Obama the Democrats dropped from 255 to 199. In 2014 they lost the Senate. Stuff like this happens, it's very difficult for an administration to hang on to both the House and the Senate in a mid-term election.


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#60 Cassidy

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:50 AM

Mike and RFS ... the two most disingenuous posters on VV.

 

It's "OK" for you two pundits to spout your endless right wing crap ... but nobody can respond with a similar tone from the other side?

 

Unbelievable double standard, and makes you both look like total hypocrites.



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