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COVID-19 / Coronavirus updates in Victoria, BC


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#10341 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 12:49 PM

Nova Scotia is reporting 37 new cases of COVID-19, the fifth highest single-day increase in cases since the start of the pandemic, as officials announced new restrictions to quell the spread of the disease.

_____

McNeil announced that as of 12:01 a.m. Thursday, all restaurants and bars in the Halifax region must close to in-person dining, except for take-out and delivery orders, for the next two weeks. All fitness and recreational facilities, libraries, museums and casinos in the region must close for the next two weeks as well.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...ov-24-1.5814232



#10342 Ismo07

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 01:00 PM

 As is typical with these fact checks, they need to be fact checked. They should just call them Strawmen Fact Checkers.... Not "False" rather true. People are arguing that it doesn't prove an actual infectious illness. No one is arguing about the use of a word "infection vs case" So the fact check actually says what I am sayin is true. 

"As explained in the previous review, this claim fails to distinguish between the test’s ability to confirm a COVID-19 infectionwhich is what case numbers measure—with the test’s ability to determine contagiousness, which is the key issue that both the podcast and the New York Times article address. The two categories are distinct. For instance, recovering (convalescent) COVID-19 patients can still test positive for a certain period of time, as documented by South Korea’s Center for Disease Control. This is because the PCR test cannot distinguish between infectious and “dead” (non-infectious) virus.

The New York Times article also states that in recovering patients, “Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk.” Fauci also refers to such patients with the statement, “So, I think if somebody does come in with [a Ct value of] 37, 38, even 36, you got to say, you know, it’s just dead nucleotides, period.” According to the New York Times article, “Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.” However, experts who were interviewed found this to be too high, and that a better cutoff for a positive result would be between 30 and 35, or even less.

Alternatively, the New York Times article also points out that low viral loads can be detected by PCR tests of people who are in the early stages of infection, “The F.D.A. noted that people may have a low viral load when they are newly infected. A test with less sensitivity would miss these infections.” But these people could become infectious later when viral load increases as the infection progresses.

It is inaccurate to label these high Ct positive results as “false positives”. The term “false positive” indicates that a person tested positive but does not have the disease[1]. However, a person who is or has been infected if they test positive, regardless of whether the test had a high or low Ct value. This also means that it is appropriate to consider a person with a positive result and high Ct value as a COVID-19 case.

Therefore, the sensitivity of the PCR test is not responsible for the high number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Simply put, COVID-19 case numbers are high because there are many infected people. This indicates a high level of virus transmission in the community and public health measures, such as physical distancing and lockdowns, are effective and important for reducing the number of COVID-19 infections and protecting the community[2,3]."

 

I think the main point is the misunderstandings that are taken from a Fauci single statement.  I still am going with the current testing is as accurate as it can be, there is no way it 85% incorrect and until I get a figure that indicates how many false positives and negatives the test is providing I will assume it's small.  I need more data to prove otherwise.


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#10343 dasmo

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 01:14 PM

I think the main point is the misunderstandings that are taken from a Fauci single statement.  I still am going with the current testing is as accurate as it can be, there is no way it 85% incorrect and until I get a figure that indicates how many false positives and negatives the test is providing I will assume it's small.  I need more data to prove otherwise.

I'm doing my best for you :rtfm: . I can't help but point out that we are closer than you think. I also need more data to prove otherwise. I'm an ethical individualist so don't come from a starting position of belief. 


Edited by dasmo, 24 November 2020 - 01:41 PM.


#10344 Greg

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 02:06 PM

2nd look at Belgium, never dove into their number really but they have the most deaths per million..  They had a lock down on Nov 1st.  The # cases did really drop for whatever reason..  I don't know how to copy the cases graph...  VV maybe you could post the cases and death graphs... :)

 

 

It was mentioned earlier,  According to the Washington Post, Belgian authorities were so concerned about keeping the hospitals clear they let the nursing homes fill up with the dying. They didn't test until someone showed symptoms, so care home employees brought Covid to work. Other hard-hit countries made the same deadly mistakes.

 

What's less clear to me is what's driving the new deaths in Belgium.

 

I noted it a few months ago, but Belgium counts COVID deaths in a more aggressive manner than other countries.

 

https://www.dw.com/e...ersy/a-53660975


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#10345 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 02:14 PM

Premier François Legault has tightened the rules for the holidays and is now limiting Quebecers to two gatherings between Dec. 24 and Dec. 27.

Legault didn't put a cap on the number of gatherings when he unveiled the guidelines last week.


https://www.cbc.ca/n...er-24-1.5813767


the most populous parts of Quebec went into lockdown on October 1. for what was to be 28 days. now that lockdown has twice been extended.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 24 November 2020 - 02:16 PM.


#10346 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 02:50 PM

95 per cent who have died in England from the virus have largely had pre-existing conditions.

Out of the tragic 37,796 deaths in NHS England hospitals up to November 20, 35,806 had underlying conditions.

There have been only 42 deaths of people under the age of 40 who didn't have underlying health problems.

And more than half of those who died in England were over the age of 80.

#10347 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:09 PM

B.C. flu cases 'exceptionally low' this year

 

There are usually as many as 800 influenza cases at this point in the season, but this year there have been 7

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...n-b-c-1.5813700

 

As health officials in British Columbia continue to count hundreds of new COVID-19 cases each day, a different respiratory virus is infecting far fewer people this year than normal — influenza.

 

According to Dr. Bonnie Henry, provincial health officer, the province generally sees between 700-800 influenza cases by this time in the flu season. This year that number is only about seven.

 

"We are looking for it and we are not seeing a lot of influenza circulating right now," said Henry, adding that the B.C. Centre for Disease Control tracks influenza  and provides regular updates.

 

Health Minister Adrian Dix told reporters on Monday that the good news isn't limited to B.C.

"Based on both national and provincial surveillance, all indicators for influenza activity remain exceptionally low," he said.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 24 November 2020 - 03:09 PM.


#10348 Greg

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:16 PM

95 per cent who have died in England from the virus have largely had pre-existing conditions.

Out of the tragic 37,796 deaths in NHS England hospitals up to November 20, 35,806 had underlying conditions.

There have been only 42 deaths of people under the age of 40 who didn't have underlying health problems.

And more than half of those who died in England were over the age of 80.

 

Pre-existing conditions, or comorbidities listed on the death certificate? Those are very different things.

 

[edit] the above quote came from an article in "The Sun" and looks like a misrepresentation of the information. 


Edited by Greg, 24 November 2020 - 03:22 PM.

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#10349 spanky123

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:22 PM

Good to see that the CTF has called for the new BC MLAs to take a 15% pay cut so that they can share some of the pain that their recent policies have inflicted on others.

 

Not a chance in hell it will ever happen as "being in it together" is only a phrase they like to tout. If recent events in California and New York are any example, they will be too good for the rest of us to bother with social distancing restrictions over the holidays as well.

 

Taxpayers Group Urges 15% Reduction in MLA salaries, Size of Cabinet (iheartradio.ca)



#10350 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:23 PM

Pre-existing conditions, or comorbidities listed on the death certificate? Those are very different things.

 

[edit] the above quote came from an article in "The Sun" and looks like a misrepresentation of the information. 

 

the article does not say.  but i presume pre-existing conditions.  like obesity.  which i suspect is rarely listed as a comorbidity.



#10351 Greg

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:28 PM

The 95% percent figure looks a lot like the 94% figure from the misunderstood CDC data. I don't think there would be hard data on pre-existing conditions that could be easily compiled, I think it is more likely it came from death certificates. And that is comorbidities.

 

But it's The Sun, so he could also have just made up the figure.


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#10352 Ismo07

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:32 PM

B.C. flu cases 'exceptionally low' this year

 

There are usually as many as 800 influenza cases at this point in the season, but this year there have been 7

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...n-b-c-1.5813700

 

As health officials in British Columbia continue to count hundreds of new COVID-19 cases each day, a different respiratory virus is infecting far fewer people this year than normal — influenza.

 

According to Dr. Bonnie Henry, provincial health officer, the province generally sees between 700-800 influenza cases by this time in the flu season. This year that number is only about seven.

 

"We are looking for it and we are not seeing a lot of influenza circulating right now," said Henry, adding that the B.C. Centre for Disease Control tracks influenza  and provides regular updates.

 

Health Minister Adrian Dix told reporters on Monday that the good news isn't limited to B.C.

"Based on both national and provincial surveillance, all indicators for influenza activity remain exceptionally low," he said.

 

Yeah it looks like cases are down all over the world.  Guessing not many people are going to the hospital as early as someone may have back in the day so way less cases, I would think most people don't get recorded normally would they?  Worldwide deaths by the flu however are along normal numbers it seems...  Once they die I guess they figure it out.


Edited by Ismo07, 24 November 2020 - 03:32 PM.


#10353 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 03:37 PM

does that make sense though?  95+% of people tested for covid are negative so i think everyone is getting tested for even the slightest symptom (or no symptom).



#10354 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 04:16 PM

oh bonnie, bonnie, bonnie.  now what have you done?   :whyme: 

 

at the height of the crisis back in april we only had at most 91 new cases in a day.  and now bonnie henry has us nearing 1,000?  brutal.

 

B.C. confirms record high 941 new cases of COVID-19 and 10 more deaths

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...-2020-1.5814873

 

 

 

There are currently 284 people in hospital, up from 198 last Tuesday. Of that number, 61 are in intensive care.

 

_____________________________

 

Social gatherings in B.C. are now restricted to household members only.

 

That means no one should be meeting for social reasons with anyone outside of their immediate household, although a physically distanced walk with a friend or arranging for grandparents to pick up the kids from school is still acceptable.

 

 

 

 

if the grandparents are 60+ i think that's kind a a rude thing to do to them.  teach your kids to use uber.  or walk.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 24 November 2020 - 04:35 PM.


#10355 max.bravo

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 04:35 PM

Very much concentrated in FV/metro van. Only 11 new ones on the island... still relatively low risk for us to use grandparents here.

 

https://news.gov.bc....HLTH0061-001959

“Since we last reported, we have had 174 new cases of COVID-19 in the Vancouver Coastal Health region, 678 in the Fraser Health region, 11 in the Island Health region, 49 in the Interior Health region, 29 in the Northern Health region and no new cases of people who reside outside of Canada.

 


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#10356 todd

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 04:39 PM

That’s not good https://youtu.be/LmlUpw8VWt8

if the grandparents are 60+ i think that's kind a a rude thing to do to them. teach your kids to use uber. or walk.


Used to get my father to pick me up from school/field trips think he was in his 60s most of the time

The age gap between men and women can be quite large these days.

Edited by todd, 24 November 2020 - 04:58 PM.


#10357 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 05:29 PM

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney declares a state of public health emergency
Jason Kenney announced new restrictions on Tuesday to counter a surge in COVID-19 cases. As part of the latest restrictions, no indoor social gatherings will be permitted and outdoor gatherings will be restricted to 10 people. There were 1,115 new cases reported in Alberta on Tuesday, lifting the number of active cases to over 13,000.
 
 
 
Retailers won’t be forced to close, but must operate at a 25 per cent capacity. Salons may also remain open but will operate on an appointment-only basis.
 

Restaurants can stay open but those dining in must stick with their own household members. Previously-introduced rules for bars and restaurants–ending liquor service by 10 p.m. and closing by 11 p.m.–have been extended.

 

All indoor businesses in the Edmonton and Calgary health zones are now subject to mandatory mask mandates–something many cities and towns in those zones already had in place.

 

 

 

 

https://www.660cityn...ns-for-alberta/


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 24 November 2020 - 05:31 PM.


#10358 sebberry

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 05:31 PM

The positivity rate is 6 times higher for Fraser than it is for the Island.  Why?


Victoria current weather by neighbourhood: Victoria school-based weather station network

Victoria webcams: Big Wave Dave Webcams

 


#10359 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 05:33 PM

The positivity rate is 6 times higher for Fraser than it is for the Island.  Why?

 

well once the virus takes hold in an area it potentially spreads faster.  exponentially.  

 

i'd also presume less people get tested here.  if you are in an area where it is "raging" you are more likely to get tested.  so you find more asymptomatic cases.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 24 November 2020 - 05:35 PM.


#10360 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 24 November 2020 - 06:33 PM

where are all the big bonnie henry fans tonight?

 

greg?

 

ismo?


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 24 November 2020 - 06:34 PM.


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