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COVID-19 / Coronavirus updates in Victoria, BC


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#18281 Ismo07

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 09:50 AM

I was hoping that with some many people double vaccinated that we would have had a much greater drop in hospitalization numbers. As we went from 50% vaccinated to about 80% vaccinated I really expected to see a drop in hospitalizations here on the island. Instead the numbers grew by an awful lot and then stayed pretty high over the last few weeks. In July we only had three or four in hospital on the island and now we seem to be up around fifty plus. 

 

Judging by the ratio of vaccinated as opposed to unvaccinated in the hospital the vaccines seem to be doing a good job. So why the real increase in hospitalizations since the summer. 

 

Because the virus comes in waves and is not static.  So an increase in vaccinations while the wave is increasing as well can not attribute to lower hospitalizations.  As the wave retreats you will see that.  You can determine how bad the wave could've potentially have been with respect to hospitalization if say we had 50% of vaccines.  Still dodgey to extrapolate that, if you are wrong you wouldn't be able to redo the math because some people might say you made the mistake on purpose and were hiding details from them.  I'm certain the vaccines helped and this wave would've been far worse.



#18282 lanforod

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 09:56 AM

Yeah, you need to keep in mind that lots of vaccinated people are getting covid, its just very mild. It is probably even stronger than 40x likelier to end up in the hospital.

 

No matter which way you look at it, vaccinations are helping. A LOT.


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#18283 sebberry

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 10:15 AM

Meanwhile a friend who has a serious cancer took matters into his own hands, against the directions of his doctors who told him to expect a short life expectancy despite the treatment they were offering him. He not only beat the cancer, but has lived in excess of a decade beyond what the doctors told him he’d live had he taken their advice for treatment.

It’s your body. Nobody can tell you what to do with your body. If someone chooses not to get vaccinated that is their choice, and getting worked up on the internet calling those people stupid doesn’t change anything other than creating the impression that you may have issues with people sharing different world views than you.

 

I'm curious to know what your friend did that worked and how it differed from what the doctors said.  

 

That said, when you're faced with a bleak outcome, you don't have much to lose by trying something yourself.  That's not the case with the covid vaccine. 


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#18284 amor de cosmos

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 10:35 AM

& as the fine print sometimes says on infomercials: "results not typical"

#18285 Mike K.

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 12:47 PM

I'm curious to know what your friend did that worked and how it differed from what the doctors said.  

 

That said, when you're faced with a bleak outcome, you don't have much to lose by trying something yourself.  That's not the case with the covid vaccine. 

 

Yeah, it was quite the thing. He took the alternative therapy route, and it worked for him.


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#18286 Barrrister

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 02:38 PM

Maybe I am a lot less scientific or decimal detailed oriented than some people but whether the vaccine is forty times better or just twenty or maybe ven only ten times better somehow is not the main driver for my analysis. Bottom line is you are a hell of a lot better off with it than without.

 

On the other hand I am shielded from the controlling radio waves because I have folded my Osgoode diploma into a sailor hat. I end up looking like Lord Nelson.



#18287 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 02:40 PM

I still can’t figure out that math. But I think it might be right.

#18288 Barrrister

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 02:48 PM

VicWatcher: Assuming the case totals per hundred thousand in hospital are correct then the simply way to thing of it is that you go from 212 chances per hundred K down to 5,5 chances as soon as you are fully double vaccinated. Or put another way, forty times more people who are unvaccinated end up in hospital.



#18289 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 02:52 PM

Yes. Don’t know where they ever publish those figures though.

I’ll try some complex math tomorrow. Stay tuned.

#18290 Barrrister

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 02:55 PM

Using really rough numbers, lets say we have about a million people on the island. 

80% are vaccinated and 20% are not vaccinated. So for the 800k who are vaccinated we end up with about 45 people in hospital and for the 200k who are not vaccinated we end up with about 440 in hospital. That really sucks for the hospitals.



#18291 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 03:21 PM

Island Health hits new record for single-day COVID-19 cases

Vancouver Island caseload nearly doubles previous days in Thursday report

https://www.vicnews....covid-19-cases/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 28 October 2021 - 03:21 PM.


#18292 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 03:22 PM

B.C. health officials announced 758 new cases of COVID-19 and 10 more deaths on Thursday.

In a written statement, the provincial government said there are currently 4,961 active cases of people infected with the novel coronavirus in B.C.

A total of 434 people are in hospital, with 155 in intensive care.

https://www.cbc.ca/n...oct28-1.6228406

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 28 October 2021 - 03:23 PM.


#18293 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 03:27 PM

Today:

COVID-19 update: B.C. reports 758 cases, 10 deaths, surging hospitalizations

https://bc.ctvnews.c...tions-1.5642083





Yesterday, same news outlet (CTV):

An independent group of researchers analyzing the course of COVID-19 in British Columbia says cases are declining at about two per cent a day but children under 10 could now be more at risk of contracting the virus because they are unvaccinated.

The experts in epidemiology, mathematics and data analysis from three universities in B.C. and the private sector say that age group had half the case rate earlier this year relative to those who are older, but that risk may rise.


https://vancouverisl...umbia-1.5641190






609 yesterday. 758 today.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 28 October 2021 - 03:31 PM.


#18294 Nparker

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 05:51 PM

So what are we doing wrong?



#18295 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 05:52 PM

So what are we doing wrong?


Listening to BH.

#18296 spanky123

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 06:01 PM

Listening to BH.

 

Exactly. You start to do the math and the numbers don't add up. We have 90% of the population vaccinated yet we have the highest number of infections ever. Since the only way you can get tested for covid is to present with severe symptoms then these are not 'mild' cases.

 

Now I suspect what has happened is that now the word has leaked about covid in the homeless shelters Island Health is now adding all of those cases. We will see if this peak extends or was a one off. 


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#18297 Szeven

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Posted 28 October 2021 - 06:10 PM

It's it's 65+/- 4 cases for 3 weeks and now it's 114?

I'd bet on it being an abnormality.

#18298 Ismo07

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Posted 29 October 2021 - 08:01 AM

Exactly. You start to do the math and the numbers don't add up. We have 90% of the population vaccinated yet we have the highest number of infections ever. Since the only way you can get tested for covid is to present with severe symptoms then these are not 'mild' cases.

 

Now I suspect what has happened is that now the word has leaked about covid in the homeless shelters Island Health is now adding all of those cases. We will see if this peak extends or was a one off. 

 

We have the least restrictions than we have ever had, and the majority of the cases are the ages from 20-49, with 20-29 being the most cases (in numbers).  There are more things going on than you might conceive.  Not all about vaccinations, it's just part of it.  From the numbers reported about hospitalizations and extrapolating that if only 40% were vaxxed it could be quite different in the number of cases currently or do you think it would be the same?  I think there are people in every province and every state and every country who try to blame their own health folks and politicians.  Stop whining and do something about it.  Everyone is so smart but remain keyboard warriors, tip tapping research etc.  We do live in a democracy, right now the majority is following the 'leadership'.  It won't always be right but this is where society is right now.  I will accept what is said over the paper thin arguments that are seen here for now from people without all the knowledge.  Yeah there are doctors with differing opinions, lots of doctors got different results through school, they will never always agree.  To blame BH for anything right now is mildly amusing though.

 

I'm reminded that science is not truth, it's the act of finding truth.  When science changes it's opinion, it didn't lie to you, it learned more.


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#18299 Mike K.

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Posted 29 October 2021 - 08:09 AM

I'm reminded that science is not truth, it's the act of finding truth.  When science changes it's opinion, it didn't lie to you, it learned more.

 

 

It would help if mass media, stakeholders, politicians and pundits would remind us of this, but they use science like they use statistics.


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#18300 sebberry

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Posted 29 October 2021 - 08:11 AM

I'm reminded that science is not truth, it's the act of finding truth.  When science changes it's opinion, it didn't lie to you, it learned more.

 

This is key - we look back through history - polio, smallpox, etc... and only see that it was resolved.  The difference now is we're living in the science and seeing it play out in real time.  

 

Most of what we interact with, consume, medicate with, etc.. on a daily basis is the product of considerable trial and error.  Just let this process work.  100 years from now earthlings will face a new disaster and look back on COVID just like we look back on polio and smallpox eradication.  


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