4570 replies to this topic

[spanky123]

And 380 last week...  Not sure of the accuracy right now of that counter as it's not close to being full so not completely worried about it.  Yates is starting to fill daily, Centennial and Johnson with spots only on the roof...  You're not a half glass full guy are you?  Broughton would be more of an illustration of commuters not returning as fast as shoppers and downtown users, which I was trying to highlight...

 

The narrative from City Hall seems to be that we are returning to normal and business is booming. There is no doubt that there are a few tourists downtown and it is busier then it was a month ago during the lockdown, but businesses are still being impacted and it is not time for the Mayor and council to be high fiving each other for a job well done. 

[sebberry]

Meanwhile ......

The 'Victoria Tax' in the form of lower wages than elsewhere is about to get another hit. 

 

".....It said the median wage in B.C. for a tech worker was $75,626 Cdn, while in Seattle it was $108,700 US, $115,318 US in San Francisco and $121,792 US in San Jose."

 

 

Jeez... where can I get one of these 70k tech jobs?   

[spanky123]

^ That is an average. Big boss makes $1M+ a year total comp while customer support rep makes $35K.

[Ismo07]

The narrative from City Hall seems to be that we are returning to normal and business is booming. There is no doubt that there are a few tourists downtown and it is busier then it was a month ago during the lockdown, but businesses are still being impacted and it is not time for the Mayor and council to be high fiving each other for a job well done. 

 

Ah I never got that impression that business is quite booming...  This will never be an overnight thing but updates are ok to let people know that things are improving.  Short-term parking is returning certainly, commuters are as well but not at the same rate.  When I talk to business owners they are appreciating the up tick.  Parking #'s wise numbers are the highest since Feb 2020.

Edited by Ismo07, 12 July 2021 - 08:23 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

on the weekend i had a long conversation with a guy i've known for a couple decades.   all his career with the same Victoria employer he has gone into the office every day for at least part of the day.   say until noon or a bit later.  he told me that he no longer plans to ever go in except for meetings and appointments.  

 

so the plague has permanently changed his work system.

 

i suspect there are thousands of cases similar locally.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 July 2021 - 08:33 AM.

[Mike K.]

I’m putting together an article as we speak on what’s happening with the office market and workers working remotely or in the office.

Nobody wants to comment under their name, but I have a couple of good sources who agreed to speak anonymously. It’s going to take a while to get to 75% capacity full time. One large private office says they only have a quarter of workers wanting/needing to be physically at the office. 75% want to work from home full or part time. The big question for them is what to do when the lease needs renewal in 22.

Downtown desperately needs more residential density. Desperately. Both to give downtown businesses more clients, but ALSO to create incentive to work out of a downtown office since it’s just down the street. The key for retailers is they bank on that worker not having the time to walk back to their apartment on their break for a snack, and to buy it down in the lobby or across the street. Then they’ll head out for dinner that evening, and do some shopping down the street, too. There’s no other solution if suburban workers are not coming back at 100% capacity and tourism is dead compared to regular volumes.

[Victoria Watcher]

mmmmm lobby snacks.

[Victoria Watcher]

Public transit ridership has started to bounce back this year, but it’s still at around half of pre-pandemic levels, according to the American Public Transportation Association.

 

And larger systems are facing slower rebounds: The Bay Area's ridership this week was just a fifth of pre-pandemic levels, and New York's MTA also remains below the national average in ridership recovered, at just over 40 percent of pre-pandemic subway use during the week.

 

Still, Catherine Rinaldi, the president of the MTA Metro-North Railroad, said she’s encouraged by such numbers, which are roughly on track with a forecast by the consulting firm McKinsey last year.

 

Precise projections are difficult to come by given the transformation of the traditional workplace during the pandemic, but McKinsey said the MTA should hit a “new normal” of ridership that amounts to about 80 percent to 92 percent of pre-pandemic levels by around the end of 2024.

 

https://www.nbcnews....corner-n1273396

 

 

 

 

so there is one transit operator that never expects to get back above about 80-92% of pre-pandemic levels.  that's very significant.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 July 2021 - 10:07 AM.

[Ismo07]

I’m putting together an article as we speak on what’s happening with the office market and workers working remotely or in the office.

Nobody wants to comment under their name, but I have a couple of good sources who agreed to speak anonymously. It’s going to take a while to get to 75% capacity full time. One large private office says they only have a quarter of workers wanting/needing to be physically at the office. 75% want to work from home full or part time. The big question for them is what to do when the lease needs renewal in 22.

Downtown desperately needs more residential density. Desperately. Both to give downtown businesses more clients, but ALSO to create incentive to work out of a downtown office since it’s just down the street. The key for retailers is they bank on that worker not having the time to walk back to their apartment on their break for a snack, and to buy it down in the lobby or across the street. Then they’ll head out for dinner that evening, and do some shopping down the street, too. There’s no other solution if suburban workers are not coming back at 100% capacity and tourism is dead compared to regular volumes.

 

So are you writing an article or an opinion piece?  It's gotta be a little early to say there is no other option if workers don't come back 100%?  Offices will shrink and later expand.  There will be an ebb and flow.  Tourism will likely come back...  While people who are working from home like to say they get as much done while they care for their kids, go shopping and out for lunch, not sure 2 or 3 years down the road employers will appreciate that once it can be measured against folks that come to the office.  We will see as time ticks on I suppose.  Many people are actually still a little careful (naturally) others love the freedom of working from home rather than in the workplace (kind of obvious).

[Victoria Watcher]

So are you writing an article or an opinion piece?  It's gotta be a little early to say there is no other option if workers don't come back 100%?  Offices will shrink and later expand.  There will be an ebb and flow.  Tourism will likely come back...  While people who are working from home like to say they get as much done while they care for their kids, go shopping and out for lunch, not sure 2 or 3 years down the road employers will appreciate that once it can be measured against folks that come to the office.  We will see as time ticks on I suppose.  Many people are actually still a little careful (naturally) others love the freedom of working from home rather than in the workplace (kind of obvious).

 

i think that's right.  i know a few WFH government workers really loving it.  and getting a great jump on up-island traffic by "working from home" as they drive to lake cowichan on friday morning.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 July 2021 - 11:24 AM.

[spanky123]

So are you writing an article or an opinion piece?  It's gotta be a little early to say there is no other option if workers don't come back 100%?  Offices will shrink and later expand.  There will be an ebb and flow.  Tourism will likely come back...  While people who are working from home like to say they get as much done while they care for their kids, go shopping and out for lunch, not sure 2 or 3 years down the road employers will appreciate that once it can be measured against folks that come to the office.  We will see as time ticks on I suppose.  Many people are actually still a little careful (naturally) others love the freedom of working from home rather than in the workplace (kind of obvious).

 

This was sort of like the argument I heard last year from City hall that it didn't really matter if businesses failed because others would simply replace them. In this case however, why would new office worker roles be created if old ones were phased out? That part doesn't make sense to me, we either have a trend that impacts everyone or we don't.

 

Having said that I am not sold on whether employees return or not. Employees clearly would rather stay at home and feel they are more productive. Employers on the other hand have more mixed opinions. Some remote roles are easier to measure than others. What I know for a fact is that everyone has far more options than they did a year ago. I know of several tech companies that don't even bother looking for employees in Victoria anymore since they have fully converted to remote and prefer markets with larger and more experienced talent pools. I know many employees who are subbing to US corporates now that they have fully adopted a remote lifestyle. Regardless of what is decided at the 'office', those two trends will have a huge impact.

[Victoria Watcher]

This was sort of like the argument I heard last year from City hall that it didn't really matter if businesses failed because others would simply replace them. In this case however, why would new office worker roles be created if old ones were phased out? That part doesn't make sense to me, we either have a trend that impacts everyone or we don't.

 

Having said that I am not sold on whether employees return or not. Employees clearly would rather stay at home and feel they are more productive. Employers on the other hand have more mixed opinions. Some remote roles are easier to measure than others. What I know for a fact is that everyone has far more options than they did a year ago. I know of several tech companies that don't even bother looking for employees in Victoria anymore since they have fully converted to remote and prefer markets with larger and more experienced talent pools. I know many employees who are subbing to US corporates now that they have fully adopted a remote lifestyle. Regardless of what is decided at the 'office', those two trends will have a huge impact.

 

yes indeed.  i probably should have mentioned that my friend i mentioned earlier that works in sales is paid 100% via commission.  so he gets no salary if he does not produce.  

 

i presume almost no government employees are paid this way.   i do not know how it works in tech.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 July 2021 - 01:06 PM.

[spanky123]

There are really two economies playing out in Victoria right now, west and east of Douglas downtown. It is busy with tourists west of Douglas and the restaurants and stores are busier then they were last year at this time. East of Douglas is still a dead zone. 434 empty spots in the Broughton St parkade at lunch today which as Ismo suggests is likely a reflection of the lack of commuters. I would say this part of the City is actually quieter then it was last year. 

[Ismo07]

This was sort of like the argument I heard last year from City hall that it didn't really matter if businesses failed because others would simply replace them. In this case however, why would new office worker roles be created if old ones were phased out? That part doesn't make sense to me, we either have a trend that impacts everyone or we don't.

 

Having said that I am not sold on whether employees return or not. Employees clearly would rather stay at home and feel they are more productive. Employers on the other hand have more mixed opinions. Some remote roles are easier to measure than others. What I know for a fact is that everyone has far more options than they did a year ago. I know of several tech companies that don't even bother looking for employees in Victoria anymore since they have fully converted to remote and prefer markets with larger and more experienced talent pools. I know many employees who are subbing to US corporates now that they have fully adopted a remote lifestyle. Regardless of what is decided at the 'office', those two trends will have a huge impact.

 

I really have  no idea what you first paragraph is trying to say.. Never heard of the "Doesn't matter if businesses fail" and really had little to do with municipal restrictions.  Also not clear on the new office roles compared to old ones phased out unless operationally it makes sense?  The two statements aren't clear how they relate.

 

Yes last summer after restrictions lifted things improved, same after they lifted in late November and now again a month and a half ago.  Odd how downtown use rescinds when restrictions are placed and improves when they lift.  I really hope that you aren't trying to tell me that as time moves on more people won't return to offices...  It will be gradual but it will increase.  Before the pandemic there were already many tech jobs from home...  Yes more government jobs will be remote but not as many as you see now.  Employees can feel more productive from home but it's for the most part unlikely, and will not be up to them once people start returning.

[Ismo07]

There are really two economies playing out in Victoria right now, west and east of Douglas downtown. It is busy with tourists west of Douglas and the restaurants and stores are busier then they were last year at this time. East of Douglas is still a dead zone. 434 empty spots in the Broughton St parkade at lunch today which as Ismo suggests is likely a reflection of the lack of commuters. I would say this part of the City is actually quieter then it was last year. 

 

Broughton has never been a parkade for shoppers and downtown users..  Mostly monthly and day parkers...  I could've had it filled with a price adjustment but I was overruled

[Mike K.]

So are you writing an article or an opinion piece?  It's gotta be a little early to say there is no other option if workers don't come back 100%?  Offices will shrink and later expand.  There will be an ebb and flow.  Tourism will likely come back...  While people who are working from home like to say they get as much done while they care for their kids, go shopping and out for lunch, not sure 2 or 3 years down the road employers will appreciate that once it can be measured against folks that come to the office.  We will see as time ticks on I suppose.  Many people are actually still a little careful (naturally) others love the freedom of working from home rather than in the workplace (kind of obvious).

 

It's more along the lines of downtown Victoria needing more residential density to be resilient, where businesses are not tethered economically to the office crowd. This is going to be the key to next phase of urbanism in Victoria, a mass influx of housing.

[Victoria Watcher]

It's more along the lines of downtown Victoria needing more residential density to be resilient, where businesses are not tethered economically to the office crowd. This is going to be the key to next phase of urbanism in Victoria, a mass influx of housing.

 

i don't think this can happen fast enough.  

[Ismo07]

It's more along the lines of downtown Victoria needing more residential density to be resilient, where businesses are not tethered economically to the office crowd. This is going to be the key to next phase of urbanism in Victoria, a mass influx of housing.

 

Yes and that increases every month it seems...  But downtown will not need 100% return either way.

[spanky123]

Yes more government jobs will be remote but not as many as you see now.  Employees can feel more productive from home but it's for the most part unlikely, and will not be up to them once people start returning.

 

I agree with you here somewhat.

 

For at least a few months, everyone was a remote worker.  Lots of private sector employers are worried that if they simply recall workers then the employee will go to indeed and get themselves another remote job. Government employees are generally less mobile, but if you are in middle management and are competent then you can probably make 50%+ more in the private sector contracting for a multinational and that helps offset the pension and benefits loss. 

 

For these reasons I don't see any big changes soon although what will change that is the next recession. I think that as soon as employers think the balance of hiring has moved back in their favour then we will see a more sustained shift.

[Ismo07]

I agree with you here somewhat.

 

For at least a few months, everyone was a remote worker.  Lots of private sector employers are worried that if they simply recall workers then the employee will go to indeed and get themselves another remote job. Government employees are generally less mobile, but if you are in middle management and are competent then you can probably make 50%+ more in the private sector contracting for a multinational and that helps offset the pension and benefits loss. 

 

For these reasons I don't see any big changes soon although what will change that is the next recession. I think that as soon as employers think the balance of hiring has moved back in their favour then we will see a more sustained shift.

 

I'll fix the Broughton counter tomorrow if I have time, it's not accurate at this time and I want you using the most accurate info.