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Post COVID Economy


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#61 Mike K.

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 09:24 AM

The only thing painful for the cruise ship industry is going to be at ports that no longer matter post-removal of the foreign flagged vessel restrictions to and from the mainland US and Alaska.
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#62 Banksy

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 09:35 AM

Edit never mind

Edited by Banksy, 14 March 2021 - 09:43 AM.

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#63 spanky123

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 10:52 AM

The new normal: Don’t expect a return to pre-pandemic life, experts say

 

100% right. The 'experts' are those who want a behavior to change because it benefits them.

 

The reality is that nobody needs to guess. All you have to do is look at countries that have come out the other side of the pandemic and see what long lasting changes have occurred.

 

I will save you the effort, the answer is few to none. Having said that, I have no doubt that the Federal and some Provincial governments will try to maintain policies that keep the populace loyal to them (ie free cash) but it won't be possible to run $100B+ annual deficits in a recovering world and it won't be possible to keep lockdown measures in place when folks around the world have returned to their daily activities.


Edited by spanky123, 14 March 2021 - 10:52 AM.


#64 tanker

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 10:15 PM

I'm not convinced at all that people want things to return to normal. People are tired of freedom and democracy and so now it will end. It was a great experiment but it failed.

#65 Mike K.

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 03:46 AM

As a real-estate guy, I’m trying to understand what more the industry can and will do to be a bigger force on the south Island post-COVID. Does the researcher mean more people are moving here, and therefore there will be more jobs in construction? And the cruise ship industry will be just fine. It’s the ports that might be cut off that will have to pivot, but maybe there are cruise origin options that emerge.

Lots of wishful thinking is emerging as post-COVID reality, especially concerning climate change and energy use. Some people think we’re on the verge of some major immediate term transformation, but for the time being gas prices in Victoria are $1.53, demand for gasoline is rising as more people return to regular schedules, and the surge in suburban relocation will place even greater demand on energy. I mean we’re halfway through March and already just below record fuel prices in this region while it’s snowing outside (lots of gas and electricity is going to be consumed this week with near-zero night time temps).

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#66 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 03:53 AM

we better export lots of energy if we want to pay down our debt.

I have no idea what the guy is taking about regarding the importance of real estate.

real estate prices are up all over the country it’s not even remotely unique to bc or Victoria.

#67 Mike K.

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 04:20 AM

Trudeau has effectively land locked new Canadian oil exports, introduced new carbon taxation on Canadian energy, but nixed carbon taxes on Saudi oil imports via Montreal.

Let’s get some experts to weigh in on that.
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#68 spanky123

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 09:57 AM

Sounds like Biden is already eyeing taxes as a way to pay his debts, Trudeau won't be far behind as the only thing that has ever held the Liberals back is the fear of competition from the US and our debt per capita is far higher than the US.

 

Corporate tax rate up 30%, new wealth, estate and capital gains tax brackets as well.

 

https://www.foxbusin...conomic-package

 

Every time there are changes like this the only folks who make money from me are my accountants and tax lawyers!


Edited by spanky123, 15 March 2021 - 09:58 AM.

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#69 spanky123

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 06:55 AM

Statscan says inflation rate is only 1.1% impacted mostly my higher gas prices. https://www.reuters....s-idUSKBN2B91O5

 

Reminder that Statscan attempted to change their methodology for calculating inflation last month which was widely been panned. https://www.theglobe...-on-new-methods

 

Of note the CoV is using a rate of 1.7% to justify their property tax increase this year.



#70 tanker

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Posted 23 April 2021 - 05:18 PM

Anecdotal but my company has a few leases coming up and all of the landlord's are asking for increases. It sure makes it an easy decision to not renew.

#71 A Girl is No one

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Posted 23 April 2021 - 06:14 PM

Anecdotal but my company has a few leases coming up and all of the landlord's are asking for increases. It sure makes it an easy decision to not renew.

Do they get government money if not leased? If so, they are probably edging their bets: collect free money now and wait until market is better and they can get better rates? I don’t know how this works... so just a hypothesis...

#72 VIResident

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 06:48 AM

Comment: Be wary of wonky and wicked municipal taxation

"......In our view, we don’t need to pay more municipal taxes post-pandemic to balance the books, deal with increased debt and retain quality services. A much better alternative is to aggressively consolidate services to get better value for our tax dollars.

 

 

It’s municipal budget time across the region, so be wary of how many pockets your local politicians decide to pick to pay the bills."

Be wary of smaller municipalities that are subsidized by next-door neighbours in larger municipalities.

 

 

We all love Metchosin, but their big city cousins support that bucolic charm.

As a community of less than 5,000, total policing costs amounted to $240,000 in 2019, thanks to subsidies. That’s four per cent of their total budget, the lowest in the region.

By comparison, nearby Victoria spends $48.6 million, or 23 per cent of their budget, on policing, Saanich spends $32.2 million or 16.0 per cent, and Esquimalt spends $8.2 million or 22.9 per cent.

In 2019, Metchosin received about $1.1 million (for municipal purposes) in lieu of taxes, most of which is for federal government properties including William Head prison, Rocky Point Ammo Dump (DND), Mary Hill Battery (DND), and Mount Helmcken Radar Site (MOT).

It also received a provincial Small Community Grant which is unconditional, intended to augment the operating budgets of small municipalities in B.C. It received $526,241, or 9.6 per cent of 2019 expenditures of almost $5.5 million.

This is all about to change: The province is gradually shifting all of the cost for E-Comm 9-1-1 service to RCMP-serviced municipalities like Metchosin. Now that the RCMP is unionized, staffing costs are also increasing substantially.

Be wary of the wicked taxation brought on by the new assessment policy in B.C.

It uses the “highest and best use” approach in determining property value. If for example, you own a corner store downtown — where a skyscraper would fit in nicely — your property taxes are closer to a skyscraper than a corner store.

The concept of valuing properties as if they are ready for development tomorrow is inappropriate for property taxation purposes. It has been a wicked windfall for the municipality.

The province finally understood the implications of this taxation policy and provided a partial solution through the interim Business Property Tax Relief Exemption. ­Owners, though, have had to pass on substantial tax increases to any tenants.

Read entire article at Times Colonist https://www.timescol...taxation-1.2428

 

 

Canada, BC, Vancouver Island, 13 municipalities will not be immune to this - I wish muni politicians would stop spending, even roll it back because we are going to get wacked over the head with taxes.

 

“The amount we have borrowed is comparable only with the amount we borrowed during the two world wars,” Mr. Sunak said. “It is going to be the work of many governments, over many decades, to pay it back.”

 

British government announces biggest corporate tax hike in decades in bid to help pandemic-hit economy

The British government has announced the country’s biggest corporate tax hike in almost 50 years in a bid to slowly fill the fiscal hole left by the pandemic.

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced Wednesday that Britain’s corporate tax rate will rise to 25 per cent from 19 per cent in April, 2023. It’s the first time the rate has been increased since 1974 and comes after successive Conservative governments have lowered it from 28 per cent over the past decade. The government also plans to freeze several personal tax allowances for four years starting in 2022.  https://www.theglobe...-in-decades-in/

 

 

 

 

Here we go folks - 1st up Saanich *ouch!* 5.76% 

Saanich homeowners face average $161 property tax increase  

Louise Dickson Times Colonist

MAY 13, 2021 06:00 AM

https://www.timescol...ease-1.24318634

 

Saanich homeowners will face an average tax rate increase of 5.76 per cent this year, an average of $161 per home.

On Monday, Saanich council passed its 2021 tax rate bylaw and its five-year financial plan bylaw, which establishes the operating and capital plans for its municipal programs.


Edited by VIResident, 13 May 2021 - 06:50 AM.


#73 spanky123

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 06:53 AM

^ What did I say a year ago? Taxpayers would be on the hook for municipal employees who sat at home doing nothing and collecting a paycheque because politicians didn't have the guts to align service with demand. The bill is now coming due.


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#74 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 07:05 AM

5.76% is obscene.

 

although colwood might be saying "hold my beer"


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 13 May 2021 - 07:07 AM.


#75 Mike K.

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 01:17 PM

I suspect these taxation increases are a truer representation of rising costs (real inflation) than the inflation indexes released by the feds.
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#76 Ismo07

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 02:28 PM

^ What did I say a year ago? Taxpayers would be on the hook for municipal employees who sat at home doing nothing and collecting a paycheque because politicians didn't have the guts to align service with demand. The bill is now coming due.

Unless Saanich hired more staff to not come to work this increase in taxes doesn't equate just staff (I guess if police and fire are included it possibly could.  Whether staff stayed home or worked every day that increase would happen.  Very few staff generate revenue.  Have you seen a significant drop in services in Saanich?  


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#77 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 02:50 PM

Have you seen a significant drop in services in Saanich?  

 

recreation facilities and programs were closed for many months.



#78 spanky123

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 03:10 PM

If staff had no work to do then I would expect that they would be put on Government support programs exactly like what happened in the private sector. If City Hall is closed, then there is no point paying a receptionist to sit at the front desk as an example. Many munis did that. Tough decision but it needed to be made. Saanich and Victoria didn't (although Victoria pretended that not hiring seasonal staff was the same as a cut) because it isn't their money and who cares. 

 

Saving money could have been used to offset the reduction in revenues that are now driving the budget increases.


Edited by spanky123, 13 May 2021 - 03:11 PM.

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#79 Mike K.

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 03:11 PM

Libraries closed, too. As did schools. We paid for those services via property taxes.

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#80 spanky123

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Posted 13 May 2021 - 03:28 PM

I suspect these taxation increases are a truer representation of rising costs (real inflation) than the inflation indexes released by the feds.

 

That is a separate issue and one the is scaring the poop out of a lot smart financial folks. The Feds are fudging the inflation numbers (Statscan was caught a few months back changing the models) on the unsupported assertion that price increases are just temporary. You know, prices will come down when demand jumps up post lockdown because that is how economics work.

 

The Feds are screwed. If they try and tamp down on inflation by allowing interest rates to rise then the $1T in debt we have incurred over the past year will push us into unsustainable deficits. If they allow inflation to rise by holding interest rates down then pension costs and other costs tied to inflation will skyrocket pushing us into unsustainable deficits and/or tanking pension funds. The solution in their minds then is to hold interest rates down (as reaffirmed today) and lie to us and pretend that inflation doesn't exist.


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