2812 replies to this topic

[Wayne]

Something tells me Conservatives wouldn't be calling this election a waste if they had won, though.

 

And a few other folks I know.

[Mike K.]

The PPC cost the Conservatives many ridings, like we're talking in the range of two dozen. Their candidates, right across the country, split the vote that one could argue would have gone to the CPC and they'd have won in those ridings.

 

Bernier is going to have a lot of frustrated people calling him today, and it won't be because he couldn't win in his own riding, or that the PPC failed to elect a single candidate.

[Victoria Watcher]

How many did the NDP split with the Liberals and Green get for the Conservatives? 100? 125?

[Mike K.]

You think NDP voters were once-upon-a-time overwhelmingly Conservative voters?

[Victoria Watcher]

No I mean if there was no Green or NDP the Liberals would win 95% of the ridings.

[Mike K.]

Imagine if there was only one party. It would win 100% of the ridings.

 

What's the point again?

[Victoria Watcher]

That you think one tiny party spitting the right vote is a huge issue. When in fact the only reason the right exists is the left split.

A lot of the PPC vote is not conservatives. They are anti lockdown votes from all sides.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 21 September 2021 - 08:22 AM.

[Mike K.]

Anyways, the PPC was the biggest story from this election. It cost the CPC 25-odd seats, and garnered 5% of the vote.

 

The CPC has some homework to do.

[Mike K.]

That you think one tiny party spitting the right vote is a huge issue. When in fact the only reason the right exists is the left split.

A lot of the PPC vote is not conservatives. They are anti lockdown votes from all sides.

 

I would argue that the Bloc split out of the Conservative Party. Just like the PPC did.

 

Bouchard's Conservative exit legacy took with him 32 seats in this election, more than the Greens and NDP took from the Liberals.

[max.bravo]

I voted PPC this time. Last election i voted NDP. I know at least 3 others with the same voting history.

[Mike K.]

What was it about the PPC that garnered your vote, Max?

[Ismo07]

What was it about the PPC that garnered your vote, Max?

 

My PPC acquaintance voted PPC (anti-lockdown) because he thinks the Cons are the same as the Libs...

[Mike K.]

So protest votes, in other words?

[rmpeers]

In response to another post, my point was any negativity stemming from her early departure from council would have been flanked by her allegiance to TV. But maybe not, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see what the voter turnout was to see if there was an NDP voting contingent that didn’t vote in this election.

I still believe there are a significant number who support the NDP provincially and/or federally but cannot stomach TV.

[max.bravo]

What was it about the PPC that garnered your vote, Max?

Only party without vax mandate. And there’s no discernible difference between cpc and lpc anymore.

[JohnsonStBridge]

Vote splitting is assumption-laden conjecture. It is foolish to assume a vote for the PPC would have been a vote for the CPC. Does vote splitting have some impact on both Liberal and CPC candidates? Of course. Would some of PPC voters cast a ballot for the CPC in their absence? Yes. But you've got lots of NDP voters too that may have cast a ballot for the Liberals. Without the PPC option many voter's first choice could have been non-CPC parties or even simply abstaining from voting. Preliminary voter turnout is pegged around 58% (down from 67%). Those who stayed home had a far greater impact on the results than the PPC vote.

 

Results are not as simple as shifting support to the closest candidate on the ideological spectrum. The PPC did not cost the CPC this election. What cost the CPC this election was once again getting shut out of the 905 region despite running a leader and policies hoping to appeal to these battlegrounds. 

[vortoozo]

Vote splitting is assumption-laden conjecture. It is foolish to assume a vote for the PPC would have been a vote for the CPC. Does vote splitting have some impact on both Liberal and CPC candidates? Of course. Would some of PPC voters cast a ballot for the CPC in their absence? Yes. But you've got lots of NDP voters too that may have cast a ballot for the Liberals. Without the PPC option many voter's first choice could have been non-CPC parties or even simply abstaining from voting. Preliminary voter turnout is pegged around 58% (down from 67%). Those who stayed home had a far greater impact on the results than the PPC vote.

 

Results are not as simple as shifting support to the closest candidate on the ideological spectrum. The PPC did not cost the CPC this election. What cost the CPC this election was once again getting shut out of the 905 region despite running a leader and policies hoping to appeal to these battlegrounds. 

 

I agree. It's not as simple as x party cost y party a number of seats.

[vortoozo]

In response to another post, my point was any negativity stemming from her early departure from council would have been flanked by her allegiance to TV. But maybe not, I don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see what the voter turnout was to see if there was an NDP voting contingent that didn’t vote in this election.

 

Voter turnout was approx 68% in the Victoria riding... I am assuming that about 20% of the mail-in ballots were not returned in this calculation, so the final % could be off slightly.

That's down from 73% in 2019.

 

I think there is a narrative on this forum that believes that the Together Victoria slate is less popular than they tend to be. Just because they don't have the same values that some VV members do, doesn't mean they are irrelevant. 

[Mike K.]

I think there is a narrative on this forum that believes that the Together Victoria slate is less popular than they tend to be. Just because they don't have the same values that some VV members do, doesn't mean they are irrelevant. 

 

Their relevance is not so easily ascertained at the federal level. The NDP has an ultra-strong machine here, regardless of the candidate running.

 

Where TV showed their waning relevance was in last fall's by-election when their candidate received marginal support compared to 2018's election result, and lost to a far more centrist candidate, by a mile.

[Mike K.]

Vote splitting is assumption-laden conjecture. It is foolish to assume a vote for the PPC would have been a vote for the CPC. Does vote splitting have some impact on both Liberal and CPC candidates? Of course. Would some of PPC voters cast a ballot for the CPC in their absence? Yes. But you've got lots of NDP voters too that may have cast a ballot for the Liberals. Without the PPC option many voter's first choice could have been non-CPC parties or even simply abstaining from voting. Preliminary voter turnout is pegged around 58% (down from 67%). Those who stayed home had a far greater impact on the results than the PPC vote.

 

Results are not as simple as shifting support to the closest candidate on the ideological spectrum. The PPC did not cost the CPC this election. What cost the CPC this election was once again getting shut out of the 905 region despite running a leader and policies hoping to appeal to these battlegrounds. 

 

I can't even take credit for it. The CPC/PPC vote split was one of the over-arching themes of the night on CBC's live election broadcast.