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2021 Canadian General Election and term discussion


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#501 todd

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 10:31 AM

Voter turnout was approx 68% in the Victoria riding... I am assuming that about 20% of the mail-in ballots were not returned in this calculation, so the final % could be off slightly.
That's down from 73% in 2019.

I think there is a narrative on this forum that believes that the Together Victoria slate is less popular than they tend to be. Just because they don't have the same values that some VV members do, doesn't mean they are irrelevant.

I didn’t vote all the candidates suck. I figured the best message would be to get a low voter turnout

Plus the school where my polling station is had a recent COVID outbreak.

Seemed to make the most sense.

Edited by todd, 21 September 2021 - 10:32 AM.

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#502 vortoozo

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 10:53 AM

I can't even take credit for it. The CPC/PPC vote split was one of the over-arching themes of the night on CBC's live election broadcast.

 

I found it hilarious as to how things were interpreted so differently on different channels.

CHEK was painting the night as a big loss for Singh and the NDP. Over on CTV, it was the exact opposite. 

 

Quote of the night: "Maybe it wasn't about the result, but the friends we made along the way." -Rob Shaw, CHEK News, on the pointlessness of this election.



#503 Mike K.

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 11:06 AM

At one point one of the panelists said as much on CBC’s coverage, to which Rosemary Barton very loudly and forcibly exclaimed “No I never think it’s pointless!” She then went on the qualify with something about getting a message from voters to keep on truckin’ (her words), to which the panelist yelled back “they didn’t need an election to do that!”

The next panelist comes on, immediately thereafter, and says the election was pointless.

Priceless :)
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#504 Awaiting Juno

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 11:17 AM

Only party without vax mandate. And there’s no discernible difference between cpc and lpc anymore.

 

The discernable difference is competence.

 

With respect to Victoria, I think the anti-Trudeau vote went largely to the NDP - and that the Conservatives were unable to capture a large enough share of the anti-Trudeau and anti-TV vote, in large part because of a less than competitive candidate and a few serious stumbles along the campaign trail - notably childcare, gun control and the Alberta COVID crisis. There are large chunks of Victoria who would label themselves as "Never Conservative" voters, while there aren't yet a lot of people who would label themselves "Never Liberal" voters. The hard work is in converting those "never conservative" voters into maybe conservative voters. 

 

I think the vaccination issue is far more nuanced than it first appears and that there is a balance to be had between the right to make a medical decision for oneself (*note - should be done with informed consent and high quality information from qualified sources), and the public health need to have high levels of COVID protection. There are effective measures that can be taken that are alternatives to vaccination - we've been undertaking them for over a year (physical distancing, limited group size, masking, hand sanitation, physical barriers, contact tracing). Vaccination verification (passports) assists in implementing those measures accordingly- and puts some activities (generally considered non-essential) as off limits for those who are not vaccinated. However, more may need to be done that falls short of vaccines being mandatory - such as implementing a surcharge tax on those who remain unvaccinated (similar to how cigarettes or alcohol are taxed because of their toll on the health system). If herd immunity is reached, some of those measures might be able to be safely scaled back. It was a wedge issue - and one where O'Toole could have distinguished himself as being able to balance COVID safety with personal rights.  

 

On the issue of guns - again O'Toole should have distinguished himself and should have clearly articulated that strong gun control is an important part of mitigating gun violence. That gun ownership comes with responsibilities, that gun owners understand and respect that, and that specific kinds of guns would remain banned. He should have also clearly articulated which guns included in the ban that would be legal again (and under what circumstances), the reasons for exempting those guns from the ban, and the measures that would be taken to ensure that those guns were used in the appropriate context. Then he could have distinguished himself by making it clear, that gun control alone doesn't do enough, as has been demonstrated on our streets, and that to combat gun violence, we need to do more to limit the importation of illegal guns and we need to make their use in crimes carry additional penalties.

 

On childcare - there's a lot that needs to be said on this issue. I think the $10/day plan isn't as good as it is made out to be and leaves large holes for too many families - there are capacity issues, there are funding issues and there are meeting needs issues.  I'm not sure parking your kid for the day should be cheaper than parking your car, I'm also not sure that a family making $200,000 per year needs the same support as the single mom trying to scrape by on $50,000 per year. I'm not sure a system that works really well for highly paid urban professionals is fair to shift workers or those living in small communities. I think there's a pretty big opportunity to come up with a much better policy that relies less on government and can work better for Canadians. After all a $10/day spot that can't be accessed isn't helpful and creates a lottery of care for a very limited number of Canadian families - meanwhile a childcare safety net, that recognizes and supports that childcare needs can be met in a variety of ways (including income tested affordable daycare) might be much better. 

 

I really hope the Conservatives don't abandon O'Toole and give him the opportunity to develop an actual track record, and to improve upon their platform.


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#505 vortoozo

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 11:34 AM

I have to admit, as a "Never Conservative" voter, I would much rather have O'Toole as PM then most of the other recent Conservative candidates once people tire of the Liberals. I hope he sticks around.


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#506 m3m

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 11:38 AM

I have to admit, as a "Never Conservative" voter, I would much rather have O'Toole as PM then most of the other recent Conservative candidates once people tire of the Liberals. I hope he sticks around.

 

Peter MacKay would've been somebody who could have swung those "never conservatives"



#507 Mike K.

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 12:33 PM

Agreed.

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#508 vortoozo

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 12:46 PM

Peter MacKay would've been somebody who could have swung those "never conservatives"

 

In this context, I think we're referring to "Never conservatives" as people who won't vote Conservative regardless of leader.

Maybe MacKay would appeal to some moderates that don't support O'Toole, but I think they are pretty similar ideologically these days.

Imagining someone like Poilievre as future PM makes me shudder, though, and that's the context in which I hope O'Toole will stick around.


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#509 qv

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 01:19 PM

But how do you attract Never Conservative voters without abandoning the more conservative end of the party?

I think O'Toole was smart to try the Liberal trick of being vaguely appealing to a wide enough swathe to win, but he doesn't have the charisma to pull it off.

#510 Mike K.

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 01:29 PM

In this context, I think we're referring to "Never conservatives" as people who won't vote Conservative regardless of leader.
Maybe MacKay would appeal to some moderates that don't support O'Toole, but I think they are pretty similar ideologically these days.


In my travels, most never-Cons have a very limited idea of what the party is about, relying more on what their friends say or what other parties say than what the party itself says, and who its candidates are.
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#511 Nparker

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Posted 21 September 2021 - 02:07 PM

The CPC candidate for Victoria was nearly non-existent during the campaign. Nevertheless, she did manage to get 14% of the vote, likely all from the Oak Bay portion of the riding.


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#512 todd

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 05:57 AM

Early data suggests historically low voter turnout in federal election”: https://www.citynews...oter-turnout-2/



#513 Nparker

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 06:46 AM

Early data suggests historically low voter turnout in federal election”

"I'm shocked", said no one.


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#514 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 06:56 AM

Then the article goes on to say mail-in and ballots cast without ID have yet to be counted and added to the tally.

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#515 todd

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 07:08 AM

Then the article goes on to say mail-in and ballots cast without ID have yet to be counted and added to the tally.

”This figure will change with a million mail-in ballots still needing to be verified. Elections Canada also still needs to count ballots by those who were not registered but showed up at a polling station”

I wouldn’t think that Rogers Media would be misleading.

#516 JimV

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 01:40 PM

Just out of curiosity I did a rough calculation of how it would have turned out under proportional rep - where seats are allotted per the popular vote.

 

Con    115

Lib      105

NDP      60

BQ        20

PPC      18

GRN        8

Total    326

 

It doesn’t tally to 338, probably because the numbers are still changing at this time. And maybe because of other very small parties not reported, etc.  But this would be pretty close to the outcome.  
 

One thing that stands out is that parties that have “efficient vote”, i.e. concentrated in one area, mainly the Libs and BQ, would lose seats.  The Cons would stay about the same, the others would benefit.  I don’t think anyone should hold their breath waiting for prop rep at the federal level.



#517 Danma

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 01:57 PM

In my travels, most never-Cons have a very limited idea of what the party is about, relying more on what their friends say or what other parties say than what the party itself says, and who its candidates are.

 

I don't know about that, Mike. I actually didn't mind some of the conservative policies this time around; what keeps me from considering them is that although the message from the top was aiming at the center, the party contains quite a few MPs very interested in driving the party to the right and those MPs make me question the sincerity of that message. For every Rona Ambrose there's a Michelle Rempel.

(and four decades of living in Alberta has given me plenty of knowledge of the conservative mindset, thank you very much :P)

PS: For the record I HAVE in fact voted Conservative before – ~20 years ago I voted for Joe Clark when he was running in Calgary Centre for the Progressive Conservative party. This was before they merged with the Reform party and turning into what it is today...


Edited by Danma, 22 September 2021 - 02:01 PM.

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#518 Nparker

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 02:09 PM

...20 years ago I voted for Joe Clark when he was running in Calgary Centre for the Progressive Conservative party. This was before they merged with the Reform party and turning into what it is today...

Now it's the Regressive Conservative Party.



#519 mbjj

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 02:56 PM

A couple of my husband's relatives in Alberta voted Liberal because they find too many of the Conservative MPs a bit flakey and they hate Jason Kenny. 



#520 Mike K.

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Posted 22 September 2021 - 02:59 PM

I don't know about that, Mike. I actually didn't mind some of the conservative policies this time around; what keeps me from considering them is that although the message from the top was aiming at the center, the party contains quite a few MPs very interested in driving the party to the right and those MPs make me question the sincerity of that message. For every Rona Ambrose there's a Michelle Rempel.

(and four decades of living in Alberta has given me plenty of knowledge of the conservative mindset, thank you very much :P)

PS: For the record I HAVE in fact voted Conservative before – ~20 years ago I voted for Joe Clark when he was running in Calgary Centre for the Progressive Conservative party. This was before they merged with the Reform party and turning into what it is today...


You’re not a never Con if you voted for the Cons!

And Albertans don’t count in my generic blanket statement. :)

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