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APPROVED
Roundhouse Marketplace
Use: commercial
Address: Esquimalt Road at Sitkum Road
Municipality: Victoria
Region: Urban core
Storeys: 1
Roundhouse Marketplace is the first phase of Bayview Place's Roundhouse neighbourhood. Comprised of commercial... (view full profile)
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[Vic West] Roundhouse at Bayview Place | Condos; rentals; hotel; commercial | 2008 plan approved | 2020 plan proposed

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#741 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 07:55 AM

We’d have a very different crisis on our hands if that ever happened.

That would remove approximately $9.9 billion out of the local economy.

 

What if it was replaced by retirees with good pensions and no kids using public services?



#742 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 07:59 AM

Lower turnover of those funds under that scenario. Cut the economic output in half, so we’d be out $5 billion in economic activity.

But then again about 50% of the economic output goes to non local institutions so maybe the gross dollars in play “locally” would even out. I include mortgage and rent in that $9.9 billion.
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#743 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 08:24 AM

But then again about 50% of the economic output goes to non local institutions so maybe the gross dollars in play “locally” would even out. I include mortgage and rent in that $9.9 billion.

 

Exactly.   A bunch of wealthy retirees with no mortgage would be pretty good for the economy perhaps.  See Oak Bay vs. Esquimalt.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 04 May 2023 - 08:24 AM.

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#744 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:30 AM

Yes, but what if the void is filled by people who are both out of work, and seeking economic opportunity here, because a lack of 20,000 government jobs have pushed those workers out of Victoria, and rents have fallen rapidly due to high vacancy rates?


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#745 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:35 AM

Yes, but what if the void is filled by people who are both out of work, and seeking economic opportunity here, because a lack of 20,000 government jobs have pushed those workers out of Victoria, and rents have fallen rapidly due to high vacancy rates?

 

20,000 jobs will not possibly leave all at once.   Even if both levels of government systematically moved to all new hires outside the region, it would take 20-25 years.

 

It's not like a mill closing down in Gold River, where the city is not all that attractive (arts, community, recreation, schools, entertainment. dining, libraries) without the jobs.  Our city is attractive regardless.  Oak Bay doesn't have any mills or provincial of federal offices and it does very well.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 04 May 2023 - 09:37 AM.


#746 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:38 AM

That could become a slow, painful death then.

 

Those 20,000 government workers might directly and indirectly support another 5,000 jobs. Do we know what the relationship is to white collar jobs and the broader job market?


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#747 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:44 AM

That could become a slow, painful death then.

 

I don't think so.  The only reason this has not happened with the loss of most heavy industry on the island is because we have the best winter climate in the country, and a mature services industry (arts, community, recreation, schools, entertainment. dining, libraries, airport and other transportation links).  Plus the advent of high-speed internet.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 04 May 2023 - 09:45 AM.


#748 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:46 AM

That could become a slow, painful death then.

 

If our housing prices were closer to Calgary, would that be "death"?



#749 lanforod

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:46 AM

i was trying to find what our actual numbers are for government jobs. Really difficult seems like. I did find federal govt employees in BC = about 25000 and hasn't really changed in the last 10 years. But thats all of BC.

Most of the increase in the federal workforce is in Ottawa, especially that 10+% bump in just the last 2 years.

 

About 137k public administration jobs in BC (is that basically the provinces workforce? or does that include those federal employees and municipal ones?)



#750 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 09:47 AM

Oh oh, but it has. Outside of four/five cities, communities on the Island are really struggling. In some places you can see it directly, in others it's a fairly well hidden economic issue.


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#751 Barrrister

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 10:18 AM

Move the Naval base, more BC ferries and relocate the legislature and that would be a pretty fast move out over a couple of years. 



#752 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 10:21 AM

Oh oh, but it has. Outside of four/five cities, communities on the Island are really struggling. 

 

I literally just said that a town with less amenities or attractions might indeed fail.   Even on the Island.   I cited Gold River above.  But Victoria, Nanaimo, Parksville, Tofino etc. will be fine.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 04 May 2023 - 10:23 AM.


#753 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 10:40 AM

Detroit was once America’s largest city physically, and the industrial heart of the US. Size doesn’t matter as much as the ingredients do.

Look at Port Alberni and Campbell River, much bigger than Gold River, both economically challenged.

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#754 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 10:42 AM

Tofino was Nowhereville 20 years ago. Vacation destinations are also balanced out by other jurisdictions, otherwise more people flock to where the jobs are, and destabilize the balance.

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#755 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 10:44 AM

Detroit was once America’s largest city physically, and the industrial heart of the US. Size doesn’t matter as much as the ingredients do.

Look at Port Alberni and Campbell River, much bigger than Gold River, both economically challenged.

 

Here is Detroit:

 

screenshot-www.macrotrends.net-2023.05.04-14_45_19.png

 

They do not have the weather*, or the attractiveness.

 

And they have only dropped from 4m to 3.5m

 

If Victoria dropped to 350k, no big deal.

 

Now, I can buy a house in Detroit for $70,000, that would REALLY attract people here!

 

*US citizens have a lot of choices for places with winter weather better than Detroit.   Canadians far more limited. 

 

 

 

 

 

I've taken the liberty of shading all the areas of Canada that have mild winter weather:

 

canada hot.jpg

 

 


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 04 May 2023 - 11:05 AM.

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#756 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 11:11 AM

In any case, it’s generally not good for a region to get rid of jobs, to solve its crises. Shuffling them around more equally might not be so bad.

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#757 sdwright.vic

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 11:16 AM

i was trying to find what our actual numbers are for government jobs. Really difficult seems like. I did find federal govt employees in BC = about 25000 and hasn't really changed in the last 10 years. But thats all of BC.
Most of the increase in the federal workforce is in Ottawa, especially that 10+% bump in just the last 2 years.

About 137k public administration jobs in BC (is that basically the provinces workforce? or does that include those federal employees and municipal ones?)


You can be in the employee of a Federal Government office in Ottawa, but reside and work from Victoria. Ottawa would be your "home" and reporting office.

COVID changed how the Government looked at staffing and opened up many HQ style positions nationally as WFH showed them that the best candidate may not be in Ottawa and being IN Ottawa is not required.
Predictive text and a tiny keyboard are not my friends!

#758 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2023 - 12:08 PM

Bayview is going to public hearing!
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#759 Mike K.

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Posted 05 May 2023 - 01:55 PM

Oopsies, it turns out council did not vote for sending this to public hearing just yet. I think some councillors thought they were voting for that, but it was actually a vote to give the proponent another 90 days to fine tune some aspects of the proposal. Then it will go back to council.


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#760 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 05 May 2023 - 07:50 PM

90 more days to fine tune the 15 year old proposal that will take 20 years to build out. What’s the point? It’s going to change anyway. And council will approve anyway. Dockside was supposed to be complete 5 years ago.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 05 May 2023 - 07:52 PM.

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