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Managing density / urban development


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#841 Mike K.

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:29 AM

Oak Bay is now grappling with what it can do to bring relief to the housing crisis and is at the start of its three-year housing framework plan.

After 30 years of a static population Oak Bay is not grappling with housing.

Oak Bay wants to figure out what to do with the Lodge lands, not how to fit another 2,000 homes into its domain.

But if there is one thing it ought to be grappling with is what to do with its shared sewage and storm water system that leaks/dispenses sewage into the straight during heavier rains. That’s the municipality’s biggest challenge right now.

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#842 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:36 AM

super easy fix if oak bay wants more housing. get the two golf courses taken out of the ALR let it be sold for missing middle housing.

oak bay has the highest "golf course density" of any municipality in canada. 220 acres. nearly 10% of the land mass of oak bay is golf course. yet less than 10% of the oak bay population golfs.

that’s enough for 10,000 units at pretty low density.

build another 5,000 units at higher density on their part of the UVic lands and there you go! you have doubled the Oak Bay population with no effect on existing neighbourhoods.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 25 March 2021 - 06:46 AM.


#843 Mike K.

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:45 AM

I’m going to step out on a very long limb here and suggest there will be more homes built in Jordan River over the next 20 years than on any golf course lands in Oak Bay :)

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#844 Rob Randall

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:49 AM

Hypothetical golf course properties would be marketed far and wide, attracting people to this region. The high-end new homes would boost property values so could we really say it would have any positive effect on availability or affordability?

 

I'm always saying the tiny condo boom of the 2000s may have created an initial low entry price point but it rocketed the average price per square foot in the long run.



#845 Mike K.

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:55 AM

Construction costs have long since dwarfed the pocket boom’s valuations, though. Back then the selling price was $350-$550 a square foot for new-build entry to top-end condo inventory, with a 750 sq ft 2BR going for $400k, which was jaw dropping circa 2002 when you could buy a nice house in Esquimalt for $250k. Now that $350-$550 is your build cost, not including municipal costs, planning costs, incidentals, marketing, a barrage of other soft costs, land or profit.

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#846 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:55 AM

Hypothetical golf course properties would be marketed far and wide, attracting people to this region. The high-end new homes would boost property values so could we really say it would have any positive effect on availability or affordability?

 

no.  nothing really will.  

 

i have noted here before - long before the pandemic - that "the internet" is what is driving people to live here.   the pandemic has now shown people they really can work remotely.  and by remote i mean not just 2 hours out of toronto or calagary remotely.  now if you have your choice of living anywhere in canada or the world why not here?


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 25 March 2021 - 06:57 AM.

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#847 Mike K.

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 06:58 AM

Not only that, but tens of thousands of wealthy Canadians have decided to fast-track retirement in 2020. They are going to start leaving their desks over the next 2-3 years in droves, as the added five or ten years for many of them won’t make a difference large enough to remain in Winnipeg or Montreal for another ten winters. And lots of them who are in unique positions will just switch to a consulting service provided via phone and zoom.

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#848 PPPdev

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 10:05 AM

super easy fix if oak bay wants more housing. get the two golf courses taken out of the ALR let it be sold for missing middle housing.

oak bay has the highest "golf course density" of any municipality in canada. 220 acres. nearly 10% of the land mass of oak bay is golf course. yet less than 10% of the oak bay population golfs.

that’s enough for 10,000 units at pretty low density.

build another 5,000 units at higher density on their part of the UVic lands and there you go! you have doubled the Oak Bay population with no effect on existing neighbourhoods.

 

marry me


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#849 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 11:15 AM



#850 Mike K.

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 01:03 PM

Looks like it's 50% higher than in 1995.

 

And that's quite the feat, considering how much easier it was to build housing in generations prior, primarily because the housing market was more spread out with plenty of places allowing fast construction of single-family housing. Today it takes years to design, process, regulate, permit and build the same densities of housing we were pumping out decades earlier.


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#851 punk cannonballer

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:02 PM

A more applicable indicator is housing units per capita, which is pretty low in Canada.

https://dailyhive.co...tion-statistics



#852 Mike K.

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:20 PM

Which should be the goal during a climate crisis, right? More efficient use of housing?

We can twist ourselves into pretzels trying to make a big deal out of every metric, but the key factor at play here is that we’re consuming more housing per-capita than ever before, and that’s causing a lot of very predictable issues.

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#853 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:21 PM

one housing unit per person should be the goal maybe.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 July 2021 - 02:21 PM.


#854 punk cannonballer

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:27 PM

Which should be the goal during a climate crisis, right? More efficient use of housing?

 

It would be more efficient if our housing supply were well aligned to demand, but I don't think it is. Exacerbating this is demographic shift, which has one or two old folks in a house in Gordon Head, long after their kids have moved out. My folks on 10 Mile are 2 people per 0.75 acres, and we have families crammed into illegal basement suites which were made for a student. Is this going to change overnight? No. But I think it's a good indicator of demand not being met, and the affordability crunch as a result.


Edited by punk cannonballer, 08 July 2021 - 02:29 PM.


#855 Mike K.

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:38 PM

Global fertility is 1.1%, while the CRD's population is growing at 1.35%, but we planned on a 1.0% growth rate. The last census (2011-2016) saw this region grow by 6.73%, or 1.34% annually, and all indicators are that we'll have surpassed that growth rate 2016-2021.

 

So when you're growing 35% faster than you had planned to grow, it's hard to rejig the system to absorb 35% more of everything. On top of that, when 10 Mile Point was built, society didn't mind building 10 Mile Points. Now it's politically problematic. Meanwhile, demand for 10 Mile Point is higher than it has ever been despite 10 Mile Point being politically problematic.


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#856 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:40 PM

Some quality housing in mount Doug park could be the next 10 mile point.

#857 Mike K.

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Posted 08 July 2021 - 02:42 PM

We can leave Mount Doug Park. It's nice.

 

We have options:

 

vancouver-island.jpg


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#858 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 14 December 2021 - 08:28 AM

Housing growth falling in Greater Victoria’s active transportation zones: CRD report

Regional strategy calls for growth where 42 per cent of trips involve walking, biking, transit

https://www.vicnews....nes-crd-report/





OK so the CRD has that goal but do the municipalities have anything to support that goal?

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 14 December 2021 - 08:28 AM.


#859 laconic

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Posted 14 December 2021 - 08:42 AM

Saanich is sadly lacking in sidewalks. See #yyjsidewalkproject on Twitter.

#860 aastra

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Posted 16 April 2022 - 04:35 PM

I took a leisurely stroll around the streets of Vic West, from the Songhees over to the Railyards and back up through the neighbourhood. Regarding the views of downtown from Vic West, I gotta say: the newer towers in Harris Green have added a dimension of depth that wasn't there before. You can finally get a decent sense for how far eastward the downtown area extends. Such stepping and layering was supposed to be a development principle in the old town and downtown generally, was it not? In my humble opinion it's really starting to pay dividends, although the visual effect is probably the opposite of what was originally intended. When the layers seem to be few because the variation in heights is minimal and the stuff at the back can't easily be seen, there's almost a Hollywood back lot effect: a misleading impression that the foreground layer might be all there is. But as the blocks east of Douglas become more and more represented, it makes the downtown area look much bigger. The London Drugs towers would likely make a major contribution to this effect.

 

Those decks on the back of the Upper Harbour Place office buildings have prime views. I guess it's been years since I've gone up there and just soaked it in. Boy, what a shame it would be if future development on the lot below eventually blocks the view completely. If ever there was a suitable site for an ultra slim building and/or some genuine effort to preserve a view corridor, methinks that would be it.

 

In Mike K.'s old 'hood there's a government housing project going up on Catherine Street that looks like it will be another mega-blandfest. It's crazy, those could be some of the prettiest streets around, there are still a fair number of fine old houses. Would it have killed them to make even a tiny effort to do better with the design? Go the extra inch? Anyway...

 

 


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