Post COVID Economy

^ I compare this with the big investment banks that always seem to get their market forecasts wrong yet always make money.

Spark said while there’s not a lot of tenants shopping for space, the ones he has been touring around have been bringing up things like more space for physical distancing and wanting more rooms to be able to separate people rather than one big open room.

“This is planning for the long-term,” he said. “The days of packing in people as tightly as you can into smaller open-floor plans is probably over as a trend.”

Colliers released its year-end office market report Wednesday showing the tendency to stay put amid the pandemic resulted in the office vacancy rate rising only slightly by year’s end. In the fourth quarter it was 6.2 per cent, up from 5.9 per cent in the third quarter.

Edited by VIResident, 28 January 2021 - 07:16 AM.

With all respect to Tristan, I think he is being optimistic. Colliers only counts a space as vacant when the lease has ended. The majority of spaces currently vacant are under lease since commercial leases are on average 5 years. Look at downtown parkades or on street parking and it is clear that office vacancy rates are far higher than 7%.

I keep my ears pretty close to the ground on what is happening in Vic and I know of no private sector business who is looking to increase their office footprint for the same number of employees. In fact it is the opposite. Most companies are factoring in fewer days in the office and/or hot desks so they are looking for less space. 

yes the article seems a bit overly optimistic.   i do not think companies want to increase their office lease costs (by spacing out workforce).  after they just ran an experiment on how well having 90% of their workforce at home worked.  or didn't work, of course.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 28 January 2021 - 08:42 AM.

“The days of packing in people as tightly as you can into smaller open-floor plans is probably over as a trend.”

I don't know if that's necessarily true.

The City of Victoria is asking for input on how public spaces should be reimagined this spring and summer as pandemic restrictions continue to restrict everyday life.

In the summer of last year, the city launched its Build Back Victoria program to support local businesses and physically distanced pedestrian activity. It allowed for businesses to expand onto sidewalks, streets, parking spaces and parks. Government Street transformed into a pedestrian-priority walkway, temporary patios were erected, space was made for curbside pickups and fitness classes turned to parks.

https://www.vicnews....uring-covid-19/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 16 February 2021 - 06:45 AM.

^ Thanks. I will check the survey to see what choices have been pre-selected for me.

^ Thanks. I will check the survey to see what choices have been pre-selected for me.

trust the city of victoria.  we need a program for that!

Here’s a suggestion: make parks available for park usage instead of turning them into cesspools of crime and filth.

that option is unlikely on the form.

Please see link for the entire article (long):

https://nationalpost...ts-report-warns

......."The warnings come as the federal government prepares to post a $385-billion deficit in 2021, due largely to massive pandemic relief benefits for businesses and unemployed people. Provinces and territories will amass another $92 billion in deficits in 2021, according to the report, bringing the total fiscal gap to 22 per cent of GDP.

Combined government debts will reach 95 per cent of GDP shortly after the pandemic — “levels last seen in the early 1990s when surging deficits led to nearly a decade of fiscal restraint,” according to the report. Based on governments’ current fiscal plans, that figure will continue to climb in the coming decade, surpassing 100 per cent of GDP by 2030, according to the conference board.

“The lasting impact on revenues and expenditures suggests that governments in Canada will struggle over the near and longer terms to dig themselves out of this gigantic fiscal hole,” the report said. “In fact, even as the economy recovers, our outlook for modest economic growth suggests that the federal and aggregate provincial/territorial governments will not be able to rein in their deficits without additional revenue measures or cuts to spending.”

The weakest aspects of Canada’s fiscal situation lies mostly with the provinces, according to the Conference Board, which will in turn lean more heavily on federal supports in coming years."......

GoC 5 yr rate is starting to head up which just adds to the misery. 

The Government is going to have a choice, let rates rise and have to drastically cut programs to pay the bills or continue to print money to keep interest low and watch inflation take off and the looney collapse.

GoC 5 yr rate is starting to head up which just adds to the misery. 

 

The Government is going to have a choice, let rates rise and have to drastically cut programs to pay the bills or continue to print money to keep interest low and watch inflation take off and the looney collapse.

I think the loonie exchange rate has a strong correlation to oil exports over the past 20 years, Canada being the 4th biggest oil exporter.  A position we were not in in the 1990s,  so now large oil purchases props up the CAD dollar somewhat countering its devaluation.   Oil happens to be a great export revenue generator for the country and likely keeps inflation down by keeping imports cheaper due to stronger dollar.   Twining of the Trans-Mountain pipeline will help exports.

I'm not an economist nor do I know the net effect of these conflicting forces so the broad assumptions that things will be like the past are likely too simplistic.

Given the expected concentration of job growth in high-wage occupations and declines in low-wage occupations, the scale and nature of workforce transitions required in the years ahead will be challenging, according to our research. Across the eight focus countries, more than 100 million workers, or 1 in 16, will need to find a different occupation by 2030 in our post-COVID-19 scenario, as shown in Exhibit 4. This is 12 percent more than we estimated before the pandemic, and up to 25 percent more in advanced economies (Exhibit 4).  https://www.mckinsey...after-covid-19#

Edited by VIResident, 20 February 2021 - 03:59 PM.

^ is this any different than any other eras?

we hear this all the time.  it never really amounts to much.

every increase in productivity means consumers have more money.  to spend.  and they will spend it on things you'd never imagine just decades ago.  travel.  leisure.  bigger cars.  more cars.  bigger homes.  extra homes.  a nanny or butler.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 20 February 2021 - 04:08 PM.

^ is this any different than any other eras?

 

we hear this all the time.  it never really amounts to much.

 

every increase in productivity means consumers have more money.  to spend.  and they will spend it on things you'd never imagine just decades ago.  travel.  leisure.  bigger cars.  more cars.  bigger homes.  extra homes.  a nanny or butler.

 

I'm certain you had the same misgivings when women entered the workforce and yet here we are.  

i didn't express any misgivings.

Is is starting. As long bonds continue their rapid rise, the Feds try and fudge inflation rate figures lower to make us think everything is normal. 

https://financialpos...dology-concerns