51 replies to this topic

[mat]

Lowe is likely announcing he will not run in the next election due to the potential fallout from the investigation in the Victoria police chief (and other police employees). By stating his position now he avoids the direct connection.

For a politician of his long standing it is amazing there is no front runner on the council, publicly endorsed by him, to run for Mayor.

As for his legacy - he has a mixed record in my view, and I have only been back in Victoria for 2 years, after a 16 year hiatus. When I left for Europe back in 1991 Victoria proper was much the same as it is now. A few new buildings, different businesses etc.

Downtown Victoria has not changed much. The homeless problem was the same back in '91, policing was an issue then as now. The major change in infrastructure has come in the Western Communities and Saanich.

I was amazed to return to Victoria with the debate over sewage still on going. That is one issue that Alan Lowe could, and should, have dealt with sooner and with leadership.

Hopefully a new Mayor, and re-vitalized council, will get both Victoria and the CRD out of this rut and into some innovation.

Mat

[amor de cosmos]

Yet another unsubstantiated reference to "unprecedented" development. T'ain't true. They need to remove this bit from the local journalism playbook.

Check this out:
http://www.vibrantvi...ead.php?p=63490

Victoria is ranked 22/24 of the major cities in the country when it comes to growth in housing starts. & I think our ranking is so "high" this year because the real unprecedented growth in Langford & Colwood is carrying the whole CRD (it seems to be anyway).

[aastra]

The big residential booms of decades past were considerably larger than the current one.

People have short memories. Everybody seems to forget that Saanich wasn't built by the Egyptians. It wasn't always there. Between 1941 and 1966, the population of Saanich more than tripled. Crazy growth.

Let's compare Saanich (historical stats from bcstats) with Langford:

Saanich:
1941: 18,000
1956: 38,000
1966: 58,000
1971: 65,000
1976: 73,000

Langford:
1991: 15,000
1996: 17,000
2001: 19,000
2006: 22,000
2016: ? 32,000 ?
2026: ? 42,000 ? (CRD estimate)

If this current boom represents Langford's heyday, then Saanich royally kicked Langford's rear. No contest.

In 15 years between 1941 and 1956, the population of Saanich increased by 111%. In 15 years between 1991 and 2006, the population of Langford increased by 47%. And yet we're supposed to believe this current boom is unprecedented, unfathomable, Biblical. It just isn't true. People just like to believe the current moment (their moment) is always bigger, faster, noiser, dirtier, etc. than the good old days.

In 35 years between 1941 and 1976, the population of Saanich increased by 305%. In 35 years between 1991 and 2026, the population of Langford is expected to increased by 180%.

Edited by aastra, 13 June 2023 - 05:55 PM.

[G-Man]

I'll bet a dollar that this has nothing to do with the Police chief nonsense.

[VicHockeyFan]

CP story:

http://canadianpress...CD8cVXbRMRCa16g

[amor de cosmos]

globe & mail "story"
http://www.theglobea...Story/National/

[Ms. B. Havin]

Victoria is ranked 22/24 of the major cities in the country when it comes to growth in housing starts. & I think our ranking is so "high" this year because the real unprecedented growth in Langford & Colwood is carrying the whole CRD (it seems to be anyway).

This is where confusion bites us in the you-know-what. The mayor of Victoria has nothing to do with what happens in "Victoria" ("Victoria is ranked 22/24 of the major cities in the country..."), nothing at all. It's like we live in a pretend universe.

For a politician of his long standing it is amazing there is no front runner on the council, publicly endorsed by him, to run for Mayor.

Totally right. There's something appalling, really, if a leader doesn't plan for succession. I know people talk about Coleman in relation to Lowe, but "talk about" isn't the same thing, you know? And if there are no succession plans, it indicates to me that there was no ...well, plan in the first place. No vision. Nothing that was on the agenda, nothing that has to be safeguarded and shepherded into the future.

As for his legacy - he has a mixed record in my view, and I have only been back in Victoria for 2 years, after a 16 year hiatus. When I left for Europe back in 1991 Victoria proper was much the same as it is now. A few new buildings, different businesses etc.

Downtown Victoria has not changed much. The homeless problem was the same back in '91, policing was an issue then as now. The major change in infrastructure has come in the Western Communities and Saanich.

I was amazed to return to Victoria with the debate over sewage still on going. That is one issue that Alan Lowe could, and should, have dealt with sooner and with leadership.

Hopefully a new Mayor, and re-vitalized council, will get both Victoria and the CRD out of this rut and into some innovation.

Totally right. Downtown is the same. I tell people this all the time, too (I was away for slightly longer than Mat): all the changes have taken place in the so-called Western Communities and along the Pat Bay artery/ in Saanich. (Maybe that's where some of those downtown haters get off: they vent about changes in their own areas -- which are low density -- by confusing them with everything that crops up downtown, whereupon they pounce on it, and denounce it.)

Downtown is only now, slowly slowly, starting to see improvements and densification/build-up (whereby, in my book, those are the same thing). As for leadership and innovation, ...well, here's hoping, I guess.

[amor de cosmos]

This is where confusion bites us in the you-know-what. The mayor of Victoria has nothing to do with what happens in "Victoria" ("Victoria is ranked 22/24 of the major cities in the country..."), nothing at all. It's like we live in a pretend universe.

I didn't mean Victoria, I meant the Victoria CMA, which is what the CIBC thing referred to. Now I'm confused.

Totally right. There's something appalling, really, if a leader doesn't plan for succession. I know people talk about Coleman in relation to Lowe, but "talk about" isn't the same thing, you know? And if there are no succession plans, it indicates to me that there was no ...well, plan in the first place. No vision. Nothing that was on the agenda, nothing that has to be safeguarded and shepherded into the future.

That hadn't occureed to me but I think that's true. Maybe it's just too soon to tell; later in the week we could get more details.

[Ms. B. Havin]

^ It is confusing. Victoria CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) includes all of Oak Bay, parts of Saanich, and (I believe?) Esquimalt. Perhaps something else, too, but basically it just had to have 100,000 people when it was first drawn up. A CMA entitles that area to one MP. That's for urban areas. If you're rural, you need way fewer people, which means that rural voters have proportionally speaking more power.

[mat]

With Alan Lowe bowing out.. (the Art Gallery stuff may have played among other things) what is the future for Victoria and the CRD?

Very few people know about the councils and various boards - I talk to business people, neighbours and locals every day - there is no connection. Few know, or care, about local politics - if our passport application is delayed we go to our M - if our streetlights are out we just phone the council - not our rep.

We need to make local politics and interaction understandable and attainable to all residents. I see very few initiatives to make that happen.

Mat

[amor de cosmos]

^ It is confusing. Victoria CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) includes all of Oak Bay, parts of Saanich, and (I believe?) Esquimalt.

it includes North Saanich; Sidney; Central Saanich; Saanich; Oak Bay; Victoria; Esquimalt; Colwood; Metchosin; Langford; View Royal; Highlands; Sooke; Capital H (Part 1); Cole Bay 3; Union Bay 4; East Saanich 2; South Saanich 1; Becher Bay 1; Esquimalt; New Songhees 1A; T'Sou-ke 1 (Sooke 1); T'Sou-ke 2 (Sooke 2)

so basically it's the 13 municipalities in the CRD + some more, so I still think Langford & Colwood are carrying the Victoria CMA when it comes to growth housing starts.

(i just typed in "victoria cma" in google & found a bc stats page with that)

[spanky123]

Ok I was a few weeks early. I guess the mayor didn't want to give me the satisfaction right away!

>> Lowe will announce that he will not run for re-election which will give the business community plenty of time to promote their new mayor. Heck if business can get reporters and editors fired for writing articles about buying cars from the US or that a 5 year old won't like the gardens, then having the media take down a mayor is nothing. <<

Lowe has been shopping himself to the Liberals for years. He has no hope of being nominated.

[Holden West]

A-Channel had some interesting speculation. Some of the names mentioned as potential mayoral candidates:

• Former Liberal MLA Sheila Orr was said to be considering
• Frontrunners owner Rob Reid
• Irish Times owner Matt McNeil (more likely to work behind the scenes)
• Councillor Chris Coleman
• Incoming Chamber of Commerce chair Margaret Lucas
• Former C of C chair Robin Adair
• Denis F. Oliver (likely winner)*

*just kidding. Scared you! Ha!

[groundlevel]

federal politics maybe -- but beating Denise Savoie in Victoria? Slim chance. If Ida Chong bows out in Oak Bay, then Homeboy Lowe could pop up in the provincial legislature as Oak Bay's MLA -- and he wouldn't even have to uproot the wife and kiddies.

[FunkyMunky]

[*] Irish Times owner Matt McNeil

His name is Matt MacNeil.

[Ms. B. Havin]

@ Holden: scared me, alright.

Back to the CMA question briefly: I was getting CMAs confused with FEDs (that's Federal Electoral District boundaries -- how's that for complicating things?), which is the swathe of municipal areas I referenced, above (i.e., including Victoria, bits of Saanich but not all of it, OB, Esquimalt correction: not Esquimalt).

I can't copy & paste the map from the StatsCan website (it's interactive), but you can find it on this page (you have to zoom in several times).

Just another layer of complication for everyone's edification, as if it wasn't multi-layered enough.

As for Lowe and Oak Bay: he lives in Victoria, not in Oak Bay.

And @Holden one more time: stop confusing me by misspelling Matt MacNeil's name! :-)
Edit: oops, Funky: simulposting!

[groundlevel]

Yup, Alan Lowe lives in Victoria not in Oak Bay. Rob Fleming ran for and won his seat as MLA while living in Carole James' riding. Living in the riding you want to represent is an advantage but I suspect the good citizens of Oak Bay would have a pretty good idea of who Alan Lowe is.

Federal politics? The federal Liberals already have candidates picked out for the spring election -- Briony Penn, Justin Trudeau and other shiny new hopefuls. Gates are as good as closed, bets already being placed for those horseraces.

The provincial jockeying? Just beginning.
Carol Taylor announces she wont be running. Candidates being wooed for ridings all over the province.
Mayor of Victoria announces he's out of municipal politics. Appears with gracious and well groomed wife to admit nothing in political future is being ruled out.

Hmmm.
if I was a gambling man. . .

[Holden West]

Only a huge groundswell of support would convince Lowe to run Provincially or Federally. He wouldn't like the insane travel requirements BC politicians endure. I think he'd prefer to resume his "real" job as an architect.

[Holden West]

The Globe and Mail's take, by freelancer Brennan Clarke (the previous Globe article was a CP wire story). Brennan plays the Liberal speculation to the hilt:

Victoria mayor decides not to seek fourth term

BRENNAN CLARKE

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

December 5, 2007 at 5:21 AM EST

VICTORIA — Mayor Alan Lowe announced yesterday he won't seek re-election next fall, fuelling speculation that he's planning to enter federal politics.

Mr. Lowe, who has ties to the Liberal Party of Canada, said during a press conference at a posh Victoria restaurant that he is looking forward to some "freedom away from the BlackBerry" and spending more time with his wife, Grace, when his term ends in November. [...]

Asked whether any federal or provincial parties have approached him to run, the 45-year-old mayor mustered a coy smile and said "not recently." He brushed aside questions about his political future, yet refused to rule out another run at elected office. [...]

[VicHockeyFan]

Robin Adair eh? Hmmm.....