17 replies to this topic

[Bernard]

This covers most of what was Esquimalt Metchosin. Maurine Karagianis is running here for reelection versus BC Green party leader Jane Sterk.

The riding now includes all of Esquimalt, View Royal, Colwood and Vic West from the city of Victoria. It loses Metchosin and the parts of Langford that were within it.

[Bernard]

Melissa Levesque seems to be the candidate for Refederation BC

[Bernard]

BC Election Prediction Project page for this riding

[Lover Fighter]

I'm surprised how many pollsters are predicting Sterk to win in this riding. I would love to see her become an MLA, but I don't think it can realistically happen without BC-STV.

[Bob Fugger]

Apparently local douchebag realtor Darren Day has purchased ad-space on the big electronic sign at the Juan de Fuca Rec Centre urging people to re-elect him as a member of the House Party of Canada. This reminds me of the brouhaha with Vote for JackFM fiasco of elections past. I wonder if ElectionsBC will have anything to say.

[Linear Thinker]

I'm surprised how many pollsters are predicting Sterk to win in this riding. I would love to see her become an MLA, but I don't think it can realistically happen without BC-STV.

With all due respect to the Greens, I think any vote cast for the Green party just increases the chances of another Liberal government.

What makes things interesting in this riding is that usually the leader of a party will get a greater % of votes than a "also ran" of the same party.

As much as I would like to see Jane Sterk be able to gain at least one seat for the Greens, I don't think she can un-seat Karagianis. She could, however cause the "left" vote to be split btw Green and NDP, which could allow Ratsoy (Liberal) to take it.

[Bernard]

With all due respect to the Greens, I think any vote cast for the Green party just increases the chances of another Liberal government.

What makes things interesting in this riding is that usually the leader of a party will get a greater % of votes than a "also ran" of the same party.

As much as I would like to see Jane Sterk be able to gain at least one seat for the Greens, I don't think she can un-seat Karagianis. She could, however cause the "left" vote to be split btw Green and NDP, which could allow Ratsoy (Liberal) to take it.

You are assuming that Green voters only come from the NDP, research shows that this is not the case. In BC the Green vote first and foremost comes from non-voters and then almost evenly splits NDP and Liberal.

Given that Green friendly voters have the environment as their top issue and given that the NDP is running with the brownest platform in this election, voting NDP instead of Green is strong vote against your primary issue.

[Lover Fighter]

With all due respect to the Greens, I think any vote cast for the Green party just increases the chances of another Liberal government.

What makes things interesting in this riding is that usually the leader of a party will get a greater % of votes than a "also ran" of the same party.

As much as I would like to see Jane Sterk be able to gain at least one seat for the Greens, I don't think she can un-seat Karagianis. She could, however cause the "left" vote to be split btw Green and NDP, which could allow Ratsoy (Liberal) to take it.

I wasn't suggesting that I would vote for Sterk if I lived in Esquimalt-Royal Roads, mainly that she is a great candidate who I would love to see as an MLA (and under BC-STV, would almost certainly get in).

[Barney]

Unfortunately the Green Party is not going to win in this riding. However, there is a small chance that they could take enough votes from the NDP to let the Liberal candidate sneak up the middle.

This riding is a good example of why we need a different voting system than the current "first past the post".

[Bernard]

Unfortunately the Green Party is not going to win in this riding. However, there is a small chance that they could take enough votes from the NDP to let the Liberal candidate sneak up the middle.

This riding is a good example of why we need a different voting system than the current "first past the post".

Based on where the polls are at provincially, the odds move in the Greens direction. This moves alone moves them to about 16% in this riding.

The Liberals are not trying as hard to win this time as last time or in 2001, more movement in the Greens favour. This will move around 5% from the Liberals to the Greens

Jane Sterk did better getting elected to Esquimalt Council than Maurine Karagianis did. I would add an extra 5% to the Greens for this.

The NDP has abandoned the environment as an issue opening the way for a lot of green people to vote Green in this election. I am not sure how much this would add.

Jane Sterk is the leader of the Greens and that carries a boost to her vote as well. Leader boost should be worth about another 10%

Factoring in all of these things means that it is not at clear that the NDP will win in Esquimalt Royal Roads. I see the Greens being able to get between 35 and 40% of the vote in this riding. With 25% to the Liberal, this makes for a very close race between the Greens and the NDP.

[Barney]

Bernard
I hope you are right about the Green's chances. Unfortunately I think the Green vote support is the "softest" of all three parties. If the latest polls are correct I still think the Liberals may take this riding.

[Phil McAvity]

With all due respect to the Greens, I think any vote cast for the Green party just increases the chances of another Liberal government.

And that's bad because......?!?!?! I wanted to volunteer for Sterk and the greens for exactly that reason!

Seriously though, I think Bernard's right-that the greens often aren't taking away from the NDP since it seems the Liberals have picked up the green ball from the NDP.

Regardless, Karagianis won it easily.

[Lover Fighter]

It just goes to show that with our current system, it may as well be a two-party system in BC. When the NDP botched the environmental aspect of their platform, people are too scared to turn to the Greens and 'throw away' their vote.

Man, getting over STV's rejection is like getting over a bad break-up.

[Bernard]

I am honestly surprised at how badly the Greens did in the election, I really thought that the core of the people that really cared about the environment would have voted for the Greens and moved them up to about 11 to 12% provincewide. Inetead they lost more vote than anyone else as a precentage.

The Greens dropped a total of over 37 000 votes from last time

The Greens did do best in the Greater Victoria area averaging around 12.5%

Maurine Karagianis dropped by close to 2000 votes from 2005 and Jane Sterk did go up in total vote by 600 votes. The Liberals lost 3500 votes.

In general the province wide result solidified things as a two party race. The Liberals did not worse than second anywhere and the NDP came third in two ridings where there were strong right wing independents running that came second

[Lover Fighter]

I'm mostly surprised Ratsoy did better than Sterk in this riding. Sterk ran 10X the campaign Ratsoy did, and yet the BCL label next to his name won him more votes.

[Bernard]

I'm mostly surprised Ratsoy did better than Sterk in this riding. Sterk ran 10X the campaign Ratsoy did, and yet the BCL label next to his name won him more votes.

I was surprised as well, I thought Saab would out poll Henault and Sterk do the same with Ratsoy. But then I was not counting on such a strong fall in the Green support in the province. If they had kept all their voters from 2005 the would have received 10.5% of the vote in the province.

[eseedhouse]

I'm mostly surprised Ratsoy did better than Sterk in this riding. Sterk ran 10X the campaign Ratsoy did, and yet the BCL label next to his name won him more votes.

In poll 72, which I scrutineered, Sterk did get second while Karreganis was just over 59% of the total. In poll 72, which I also scrutineered, Ratsoy was second. In both of these polls STV won.

Turnout was shamefully light at Shoreline school and there was a last half hour lull rather than any rush. It was pretty dead after 7:00 on both my polls and poll 72 only got 99 people voting out of more than 300 possible.

These polls are located in the Admirals road area near Naden. I thought the people who actually ran the polls did a good job, and there were no spoiled ballots in either of my polls except one where it was caused by the RO who handed out three ballots to one voter. She noticed it and only allowed the voter to put two ballots in the box, one of each, and set the third one aside in an envelope. There were no ballots I saw where the intention of the voter was in any doubt.

[eseedhouse]

I'm mostly surprised Ratsoy did better than Sterk in this riding. Sterk ran 10X the campaign Ratsoy did, and yet the BCL label next to his name won him more votes.

In poll 72, which I scrutineered, Sterk did get second while Karreganis was just over 50% of the total. In poll 72, which I also scrutineered, Ratsoy was second. In both of these polls STV won.

Turnout was shamefully light at Shoreline school and there was a last half hour lull rather than any rush. It was pretty dead after 7:00 on both my polls and poll 72 only got 99 people voting out of more than 300 possible.

These polls are located in the Admirals road area near Naden. I thought the people who actually ran the polls did a good job, and there were no spoiled ballots in either of my polls except one where it was caused by the RO who handed out three ballots to one voter. She noticed it and only allowed the voter to put two ballots in the box, one of each, and set the third one aside in an envelope. There were no ballots I saw where the intention of the voter was in any doubt.