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Victoria's housing market, home prices and values


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#3261 GetLisaSomeHelps

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 08:48 AM

$130K is $215K in 2020 figures, or less than half of the average price of a condo in Victoria. There are currently 5 listings under $215K on MLS, all in the same building (647 Michigan Street). 

 

Gasp! You mean to tell me that home prices have appreciated ~4 more than the rate of inflation? Wouldn't that mean the average person starting out today has to put in ~4x the effort than the average person in 1990 to buy a home? The person back then already says they did everything they could to make it work and it's just that people today aren't willing to make it work? Can't make this stuff up.


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#3262 GetLisaSomeHelps

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 08:50 AM

^

 

"struck a nerve"

 

struck a chord means your point resonates with people, they agree with it

 

oops. thanks. 



#3263 Rob Randall

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:23 AM

When it comes to sowing discord, you're preaching to the choir.


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#3264 On the Level

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:30 AM

I think the difference today is that people expect to live where their parents lived, but that is unaffordable.  When I was in my 20s and spoke to some of the original home owners on Renfew (near the PNE area), it was common to save 3 months wages so you could buy the lot outright, then take a mortgage to cover the home.

 

Now they didn't particularly choose Renfrew as at that time it was way out in the boonies with few services, but it was what they could afford.

 

I grew up in North Van but see it as unaffordable as compared to other neighbourhoods, so it is not an option for myself or my kids.  My first home was way up island because that was what I could afford to buy.

 

I think that's the biggest difference and it's being driven by the non-car / anti sprawl sentiment.  Prices will go up because you can't house 350,000+ people downtown Victoria all while preventing development.



#3265 Mike K.

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:31 AM

Gasp! You mean to tell me that home prices have appreciated ~4 more than the rate of inflation? Wouldn't that mean the average person starting out today has to put in ~4x the effort than the average person in 1990 to buy a home? The person back then already says they did everything they could to make it work and it's just that people today aren't willing to make it work? Can't make this stuff up.

It doesn’t work that way.

In 1990 interest rates were much higher and access to capital more limited. Your $200,000 mortgage for a home in Esquimalt would have been mortgaged at $2,170/month at 12.75%, and many people had much higher mortgage rates. Even at 8% by the mid-90s the mortgage on $200k would have been $1,526 in 1990s dollars, but to buy a home would have cost closer to $275-$300k so you’d have had to put down a much bigger down payment for $200k in credit.

Today you can mortgage $1 million for $20,000/year, or $1,667/month at a variable rate. That’s the rent for a one-bedroom apartment.

It’s easy to look back and point fingers at ‘boomers,’ but had you gone through what they went through you wouldn’t be so quick to judge them on this front.

Homeownership in Victoria has always been tough for locals. Always. My example above should give people some pause who may not recognize or be aware of the home buying challenges Victorians faced in decades past given how expensive this jurisdiction was, and continues to be.
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#3266 RFS

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:41 AM

Always been tough, tougher now though.  Any argument otherwise is some weird guilty conscience coping 



#3267 Mike K.

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:42 AM

I think that's the biggest difference and it's being driven by the non-car / anti sprawl sentiment. Prices will go up because you can't house 350,000+ people downtown Victoria all while preventing development.

People give their left arm to be able to buy a home in Vic West today.

When I was growing up, the kids from Oak Bay, Broadmead and Cordova Bay would no word of a lie refer to Fairfield/James Bay/Fernwood and especially Vic West as “the ghetto,” and real-estate agents would advise people to buy elsewhere if they could. Esquimalt was a no-go in terms of optics.

Today, the people who bought there live in expensive houses because society finally realized Vic West wasn’t a ghetto, it just wasn’t acceptable to the water cooler chatters in the 90s and early 00s. Much like today there is extreme stigma in some cases if someone wants to move to the West Shore, as it’s considered taboo among some segments of young urban professionals.

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#3268 Nparker

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:44 AM

...Homeownership in Victoria has always been tough for locals. Always...

And I bet aastra can find some articles to support this.



#3269 spanky123

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:11 AM

People give their left arm to be able to buy a home in Vic West today.

 

We have folks claiming that houses are unaffordable yet we just had a record month in home sales! Clearly houses are affordable and lots of people are buying them. 


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#3270 GetLisaSomeHelps

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:14 AM

It doesn’t work that way.

In 1990 interest rates were much higher and access to capital more limited. Your $200,000 mortgage for a home in Esquimalt would have been mortgaged at $2,170/month at 12.75%, and many people had much higher mortgage rates. Even at 8% by the mid-90s the mortgage on $200k would have been $1,526 in 1990s dollars, but to buy a home would have cost closer to $275-$300k so you’d have had to put down a much bigger down payment for $200k in credit.

Today you can mortgage $1 million for $20,000/year, or $1,667/month at a variable rate. That’s the rent for a one-bedroom apartment.

It’s easy to look back and point fingers at ‘boomers,’ but had you gone through what they went through you wouldn’t be so quick to judge them on this front.

Homeownership in Victoria has always been tough for locals. Always. My example above should give people some pause who may not recognize or be aware of the home buying challenges Victorians faced in decades past given how expensive this jurisdiction was, and continues to be.

 

Except you can't get an interest only mortgage with less than 35% down.


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#3271 Mike K.

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:18 AM

I’ve been at this for 14 years now. Not a year went by when people didn’t claim housing was unaffordable. And before I started doing this, all of the old folks talked about how expensive it was to live in Victoria, and talked of how they struggled to make homeownership happen but that they were glad they did it.

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#3272 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:23 AM

back in the 70's it was darned near impossible to find anything over $150,000 to really sink some good investment money into.

 

now today's homebuyers have lots of properties over $1m to get into.  so the opportunities are much better.



#3273 Mike K.

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:23 AM

Except you can't get an interest only mortgage with less than 35% down.


That’s where the equity comes in from the Langford home you could have sold for $750k that you bought for $500k five years ago plus a reasonable down payment, but you guys don’t want to live in Langford because of reasons A through Z.

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#3274 GetLisaSomeHelps

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:35 AM

That’s where the equity comes in from the Langford home you could have sold for $750k that you bought for $500k five years ago plus a reasonable down payment, but you guys don’t want to live in Langford because of reasons A through Z.

 

you always have an answer, don't you. you're painting it like "it's so easy! just get a mortgage for a million dollars so you can pay the same as your rent!" but then shift the goal posts.


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#3275 rjag

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:42 AM

you always have an answer, don't you. you're painting it like "it's so easy! just get a mortgage for a million dollars so you can pay the same as your rent!" but then shift the goal posts.

 

So what do you want?

 

Our market pricing represents the desirability of our region. More and more people are moving here and have been doing so for decades. That's not going to change.

 

You won the lottery living in one of the most desirable and safe places on earth. Maybe build a wall eh? Or be like Comrade Ben and seize all private property and distribute it based on loyalty to the party eh?

 

What-do-you-want? If you have the opportunity to be God what would you do to make it like you want?


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#3276 RFS

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:49 AM

So what do you want?

 

Our market pricing represents the desirability of our region. More and more people are moving here and have been doing so for decades. That's not going to change.

 

You won the lottery living in one of the most desirable and safe places on earth. Maybe build a wall eh? Or be like Comrade Ben and seize all private property and distribute it based on loyalty to the party eh?

 

What-do-you-want? If you have the opportunity to be God what would you do to make it like you want?

 

10 year immigration freeze



#3277 GetLisaSomeHelps

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:55 AM

So what do you want?

Our market pricing represents the desirability of our region. More and more people are moving here and have been doing so for decades. That's not going to change.

You won the lottery living in one of the most desirable and safe places on earth. Maybe build a wall eh? Or be like Comrade Ben and seize all private property and distribute it based on loyalty to the party eh?

What-do-you-want? If you have the opportunity to be God what would you do to make it like you want?


It will reach a breaking point or you'll be left with a city of retirees and homeless.

#3278 GetLisaSomeHelps

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 10:56 AM

As for what do i want? A small loan of a million dollars.
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#3279 On the Level

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 11:07 AM

We are getting off topic....but no-one should be looking at a high price location for a first time home.  That concept hasn't changed in 100 years.  

 

If you can afford $550k, look somewhere like here;

https://www.timescol...ills-1.24212938

 

If that is too expensive, then look for a condo. If it still to expensive, look to Sooke.


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#3280 Mike K.

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 12:30 PM

you always have an answer, don't you. you're painting it like "it's so easy! just get a mortgage for a million dollars so you can pay the same as your rent!" but then shift the goal posts.

In the past month 989 purchasers had an answer on the re-sale market, and hundreds more on the pre-sale market.

So far this year about 6,000-7,000 families/purchasers had an answer.

My point was that cash is accessible today unlike in decades past. You can get a HELOC at a very low rate with cash to play with, wisely. In 1995 that wasn’t quite the thing it is today, and certainly not at today’s record low interest rates.

But you need to be in the market. You’re choosing not to be, because your goal posts may be too far away or unrealistic.


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