5833 replies to this topic

[Barrrister]

I am at a loss to see what the war has to do with our inflation? It is 99% the Government printing money. 

[lanforod]

Fuel costs is more on the war than anything else, and fuel costs drives a lot of inflation. 

 

I agree though, the rest of it - is on the 'free money'.

[Mike K.]

Fuel costs were rising rapidly well, well before the war, and eclipsed pre-COVID costs by the start of 2022. They surged in the US due to Biden’s energy policies.

[Nparker]

It's not like we didn't see record high fuel costs before the war in the Ukraine.

[lanforod]

The data is there, you guys can say all you want but the numbers don't lie. https://tradingecono...asoline-prices 

The inflation spike from April to July is similar to the gasoline spike.

It's not fully coincidence. We should see inflation decrease now that fuel has come down to nearly before that.

Edited by lanforod, 08 September 2022 - 12:21 PM.

[spanky123]

^ Unfortunately we will not see inflation decrease near term as all levels of Governments continue to print money and jack wages. We run the very real risk of inflation becoming endemic and it makes take years to unravel at a huge amount of pain to the middle class. This is why central banks around the world are raising rates and warning of further increases.

[Mike K.]

The data is there, you guys can say all you want but the numbers don't lie. https://tradingecono...asoline-prices
The inflation spike from April to July is similar to the gasoline spike.
It's not fully coincidence. We should see inflation decrease now that fuel has come down to nearly before that.

Drag that out a little further, to include 2016-2019. By late 2020 gasoline prices were surging after having fallen since 2018. By late 2021 they were well above 2016-2020 prices, and surged again in 2022.

[Victoria Watcher]

For the first time in over a decade, residential real estate across the developed world appears vulnerable to falling prices. That’s what happens when central banks flip into interest rate hiking mode after an unprecedented run-up in home prices.

 

But unlike the last time around—the 2008 housing bust—the U.S. won’t be at the epicenter of this housing pullback. At least that’s according to Goldman Sachs.

 

This month, researchers at Goldman Sachs released “The housing downturn: A bigger deal down under and up north.” Through the end of 2023, the paper predicts a crash-like drop in home prices in New Zealand (–21%), Australia (–18%), and Canada (–13%). For comparison, the U.S. housing bubble saw home prices drop 27% between the 2006 peak and the 2012 bottom.

 

Goldman Sachs clearly has Australia, Canada, and New Zealand in the housing crash (or almost crash) camp, however it’s less pessimistic about other G10 countries. Through the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs researchers predict that home prices will fall 6% in France and remain unchanged in the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, they say U.S. home prices will actually rise 1.8% in 2023.

 

Why is Goldman Sachs so much more bearish on countries like Australia and New Zealand than the United States? It boils down to detached fundamentals. While home prices in the U.S. are historically frothy, home prices in countries like Canada are simply off the charts. In 2021 alone, Canadian home prices soared 27% while U.S. home prices climbed a more modest 18.9%.

 

“Across the G10, home sales are falling quickly and home price growth is slowing, with outright price declines in places that saw the bigger increases during the pandemic,” write Goldman Sachs researchers.

 

 

https://finance.yaho...-185910379.html

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 10 September 2022 - 01:14 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

Things are looking bleak on Canada’s housing supply front. 

According to a new report from RE/MAX Canada, housing inventory may reach a crisis point in major Canadian centres without intervention. 

Released this morning, the 2022 Housing Inventory Report highlights how inventory levels in major Canadian housing markets have been dwindling over the past decade. In July, active listings ran below the 10-year average in almost all markets surveyed, based on Canadian Real Estate Association data and insights from the RE/MAX network. This is occurring despite softer overall real estate activity. 

 

 

https://storeys.com/...t-intervention/

 

 

 

Maybe having 620,000 annual international students and 400,000 new arrivals every year (some of this is overlapping) is a bad idea, if we have nowhere to put them?

[Victoria Watcher]

The average price of a Canadian home sold in August was $637,673, a number that has fallen by more than 20 per cent since February.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Thursday that the number of homes that sold on the real estate group's Multiple Listing Service has now fallen for six months in a row, since the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates in March.

https://www.cbc.ca/n...using-1.6583733


All doom and gloom, including all the charts they include, that only go back 6 months. If they went back 24 months they’d see everything is still ahead.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 September 2022 - 05:05 PM.

[Mike K.]

So there’s n going to be a huge run on all this cheap real-estate, right?

[lanforod]

So there’s n going to be a huge run on all this cheap real-estate, right?

 

Nope, not with lending rates up so much.

[Mike K.]

There’s always an excuse, isn’t there?

This a great lesson in why the comments the young people were making at the MMHI public hearing were so tone deaf. They lambasted older people for already owning real-estate, and that they bought for such cheap prices decades ago.

So what’s stopping all these poli sci students from buying urban townhomes today? There’s a whole bunch for sale, for lower prices.

[Victoria Watcher]

There’s always an excuse, isn’t there?

This a great lesson in why the comments the young people were making at the MMHI public hearing were so tone deaf. They lambasted older people for already owning real-estate, and that they bought for such cheap prices decades ago.

So what’s stopping all these poli sci students from buying urban townhomes today? There’s a whole bunch for sale, for lower prices.

 

 

151 townhouses for sale today in the CRD. 

 

Here is a nice one for under $600,000. 2br 2bath over 1,796 sq. ft.  $479 strata fees.

 

https://www.realtor....malt-gorge-vale

 

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 16 September 2022 - 08:17 AM.

[Matt R.]

Someone check and see if there are any 3 beds in Parkside Place for sale. Too bad you can’t get cmhc insurance on those.

[Redd42]

Nope, not with lending rates up so much.

 

Excuse me... when my partner bought his house, interest rates were 17%. He had room mates for many years to pay for that place.

[Mike K.]

Excellent point. The kids today have no clue.

[dasmo]

17% on $100,000 pushing affordability is a much better setup than 5% on $1,500,000. Especially if you consider that median earnings of Canadians employed on a full-time basis in 1980 was $41,348....

[Mike K.]

If we’re making comparisons, we should compare entry level with entry level. At 17%, in 1980, the mortgage on $100,000 loan would be equal to $4,8xx on today’s dollars.

At 5%, the mortgage on a $900k loan is $5,2xx.

[Mike K.]

We’re not really dealing with the extremes we think we are, or which pundits make you believe we are. Housing here has always been expensive.