5833 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

Canada will grow by 13 million people by 2041.

That’s equivalent to the populations of BC, Alberta, Sask and Manitoba PLUS the entirety of the Maritimes, combined: https://nationalpost...amilies-by-2041

[Victoria Watcher]

Why have we determined that our immigration level should be more than 3X that of the USA?

[LJ]

Why have we determined that our immigration level should be more than 3X that of the USA?

Cause Trudeau says so

[Victoria Watcher]

If the goal is to eventually surpass the USA in total population, I might even accept that.

But we are told most times that we need it to satisfy a demand for workers, or especially to pay into social programs needing funding to support the aging population.

But is our situation 3X worse then the USA?

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 19 September 2022 - 11:58 AM.

[dasmo]

We have to feed our top GDP category: Housing. And new kids won’t do it. “ Canada is a low-fertility country, or below the no-migration population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.”
https://www150.statc...?pid=1310041801

[dasmo]

This combined with increasing urban containment boundaries and you get missing middle housing.
How dare you have a nice house in a nice neighborhood in a nice city!

[Victoria Watcher]

TD Economics has revised its housing forecast to account for even steeper price declines in early 2023 and then slower growth for the remainder of the year.

The report from the bank’s economist Rishi Sondhi foresees average national home price growth dropping by 11.2 per cent next year, but increasing by 6.1 per cent in 2024.

Sondhi says Canadian average home prices will recoup only a portion of their pandemic-era gains as personal incomes continue growing and bond yields begin declining in 2023.

His report adds annual average sales growth will fall 16 per cent next year, but rebound with a 19.1 per cent climb in 2024.

 

 

https://www.cornwall...itial-forecast/

[Citified.ca]

$1,050,000 median for single family homes in October, only $10,000 off from September. Over the last several months, it appears that a new plateau is forming.

 

Victoria real-estate saw higher prices for houses and townhomes in October as possible plateau looms

https://victoria.cit...-plateau-looms/

[Victoria Watcher]

Looming Plateau rumoured to tour again in 2023 or 2024 after their bass player completes rehab.

[Mike K.]

Sorry, Looming Plateau is all we could get.

 

Market Crash cancelled.

[Victoria Watcher]

Real estate association predicts drop in region's house prices next year

 

In its fourth quarter forecast, the association predicts the average sale price will drop 4.3 per cent next year to $950,000

 

https://www.timescol...xt-year-6083976

[Mike K.]

From $1.2 to $0.95? A $250k average drop?

[Mike K.]

Ok…

There’s clearly some voodoo math going on there. By “house” does Duffy mean condos and townhomes and SFDs? Or does he means SFD? To me, a house is an SFD.

[Victoria Watcher]

From $1.2 to $0.95? A $250k average drop?

 

That's not 4.3%.

 

 

the association predicts the average sale price will drop 4.3 per cent next year to $950,000

 

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 10 November 2022 - 07:45 AM.

[Mike K.]

No kidding it’s not.

So where are they getting their house prices from? The average so far in 2022 is $1.349. In October is was $1.226.

[Victoria Watcher]

No kidding it’s not.

So where are they getting their house prices from? The average so far in 2022 is $1.349. In October is was $1.226.

 

From this press release:

 

 

 

 

Due to economic tailwinds, we expect the MLS® average price to remain relatively stable in the region going forward, with an average price of $768,500 in 2022 and $750,000 in 2023 on Vancouver Island. In Victoria, we forecast an average price of $992,300 in 2022 and $950,000 in 2023.

 

https://www.bcrea.bc...ingforecast.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

The article does not say "house" prices, it says homes.

 

 

 

The B.C. Real Estate Association is predicting that prices of homes for sale in Greater Victoria will fall significantly next year, in part because of continued high interest rates.

 

In its fourth quarter forecast, the association predicts the average sale price will drop 4.3 per cent next year to $950,000. It forecasts the average sale price this year will land at about $992,300, a 9.5 per cent increase from 2021.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 10 November 2022 - 07:56 AM.

[Mike K.]

\/\/\/\/

Real estate association predicts drop in region's house prices next year

In its fourth quarter forecast, the association predicts the average sale price will drop 4.3 per cent next year to $950,000

https://www.timescol...xt-year-6083976

[Victoria Watcher]

That's what I mean.  The headline does not match the article contents.

[Mike K.]

Yeah, that’s a bit of an oops there.

[dkuitu]

Why have we determined that our immigration level should be more than 3X that of the USA?

 

It's all about balancing the age pyramid.

https://www.populati...et/canada/2020/

Most countries in the world aren't being proactive about addressing this issue. Baby boomers are in retirement represent a segment of the population that has roughly 80% of the wealth. So bottom line is we need young workers to balance the pyramid