5833 replies to this topic

[Barrrister]

Like me it is old. Things were done differently a hundred years ago,

[dasmo]

Is it designated heritage?

[Matt R.]

I had a childhood friend who grew up in a mansion like that, always a trip to visit his place when everything else I knew was 1960’s Gordon head special.

[Barrrister]

It is designated heritage but eventually when I sell i suspect that some developer will have an accidental fire. Seems to happen to a lot of the heritage houses that were on larger lots. My wife is tired of the downtown shitshow and the druggies that are floating into our area. Time to move. 

[Mike K.]

A study out of NYC suggests luxury apartment projects lower the value of nearby houses and depress rental rates.

https://twitter.com/...Q66bVpXuVzkvqyA

I’m not sure if that’s a positive or negative. Won’t that just feed into the talking points about density lowering adjacent property values, and affecting nearby homeowners while making economic conditions better for developers to buy up adjacent lots for less?

Here in Victoria I’ve never seen this effect personally. Usually the land value of a property rises. But is that the land value of a property that can now be developed as well, being conflated with “all” values rising (even adjacent properties that may not actually benefit from having a large development next door)?

Something to ponder here. And maybe Victoria isn’t a good example as there is so little developable land and demand is so higher for all property, but if this finding is sound and the research universal, what does that do for debate between proponents of density and nearby property owners?

[Citified.ca]

November was the second month in a row where listings fell. Down from 2,300 in September, to 2,111 in November.

 

The verdict is sellers aren't willing to sell at any price, by and large, and would rather pull the listing than drop the price too low. It's interesting, as Marko lays out, with the current tug-of-war between buyers and sellers (both expecting the market to improve for their side next spring).

 

New homes are under construction at Langford's Westhills community, as seen from Bear Mountain Parkway on South Skirt Mountain. In November, the pace of home sales slowed as a tug-of-war scenario between buyers and sellers takes shape ahead of winter.

 

Condos edged higher, houses nudged lower in November as Victoria real-estate settled into winter slow-down

https://victoria.cit...nter-slow-down/

[Victoria Watcher]

The Bank of Canada is raising its key interest rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 4.25 per cent and the highest it’s been since 2008.

[Victoria Watcher]

In previous rate hikes, the bank made it clear that it would continue to raise its trend-setting rate until inflation came back to within the range of up to three per cent that it targets. As recently as October, the bank said it "expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further."

But Wednesday's statement accompanying the rate decision was a clear departure from that tone, as the language shifted to a more neutral, wait-and-see approach.

"Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target," the bank said.

https://www.cbc.ca/n...anada-1.6677004

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 07 December 2022 - 07:29 AM.

[Barrrister]

I suspect that they dont want to be seen as the Grinch that stole Christmas, Has the BofC ever raised rates in December before?

[lanforod]

I suspect that they dont want to be seen as the Grinch that stole Christmas, Has the BofC ever raised rates in December before?

 

I doubt that. They are probably expecting inflation to lower, which makes sense, given how much fuel prices have dropped. Inflation has been level for a few months, with fuel dropping, it should drop.

They might have preliminary inflation numbers for November already. We'll see those in a week or so.

Edited by lanforod, 07 December 2022 - 08:35 AM.

[dasmo]

Then they can also drop the rates fast come spring just in time for the missing middle and create another housing boom for the half million noobs they are being in!

Edited by dasmo, 07 December 2022 - 09:12 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

For the first time in nearly two years, the median sales price of a Greater Victoria and area single-family home dropped—just barely—under $1 million. The median price for November, according to the Victoria Real Estate Board, was $999,900.

 

That symbolic threshold made headlines when it was crossed on an upward trajectory in February of 2021, but that record was quickly surpassed. In the froth of the pandemic housing market, median prices reached a peak of $1.31 million in March of this year, and have been sliding ever since.

 

“The actual market, by my guess, is down about 18%,” explains housing analyst Leo Spalteholz, who is taking into account the final prices compared to the assessed values of the homes that have sold. “That’s pretty substantial.”

 

Rising interest rates are part of the story of the decline.

 

“It just shows how important affordability is to the market,” Spalteholz said. A mortgage on a $1.3 million home six months ago, with the lower interest rates, would be comparable to one on a million-dollar home today, in terms of the actual cost of paying it off. Spalteholz sees that cost—about $5,000 per month—as an approximate limit to what Victoria buyers are willing to swallow.

 

 

https://www.capitald...ion-dollar-mark

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 December 2022 - 11:48 PM.

[dasmo]

Willing or able? Rule of thumb is 30% of income for housing including insurance etc. what’s the average income here again?
I’m sure disrupting heritage neighborhoods by allowing developers to build luxury multiplexes within them without resistance will improve affordability right?
I remember Leo struggling to spend $400k on a house here not long ago…

[Mike K.]

Comparable how? We don’t have data telling us what down payments people made on Victoria homes. There’s a very good chance someone buying a $1.3 million house had more equity than 20%.

The $5,000 figure might just be another assumption? It’s not quantified.

[Mike K.]

It’s almost guaranteed that if interest rates remain at higher levels into mid-2023, that 30 year amortizations will become an option. Maybe even 35.

The US uses 30 year mortgages as a matter of fact, or at least it’s an option just as common to have available as 25.

Mortgage rates in the US have also been dropping since September, so waning demand may also see Canadian banks becoming more competitive with their lending rates.

Something has to give. People want to buy, it’s not like there are no buyers. But with the stress test being what it is and 25 year amortizations willing buyers have no tools to help them.

And the market prices won’t arbitrarily fall to well below $1M for a house if new build costs are higher.

[Nparker]

...And the market prices won’t arbitrarily fall to well below $1M for a house if new build costs are higher.

This.

[dasmo]

Wages need to go higher. This is historically how we have gone back into affordability. It hasn’t been by nominal dollar decreases. Even on a personal level that’s been a large contributor. Inflation must eventually flow to wages. It’s the ford principle. Otherwise what is it?

[Mike K.]

Provincial government workers are getting nice wage increases next year. That’ll help level out the playing field.

[dasmo]

Carpenters too I imagine

[Nparker]

Carpenters too I imagine

Only if there's a lot of interest in their back catalogue.