This pretty much sums it up.
According to the author, illegal pot costs about $1 a gram to make and it currently sells for an average of $6.80. If legal pot is a minimum of $11 a gram (including tax) and is of far lower quality than the illegal stuff then we are about to see a very big bubble burst.
https://www.theglobe...ceit-of-potcom/
That article starts out with a major logical fallacy:
“The law is essentially unimportant,” he says. “That’s because the government has never had the slightest impact on either smokers or growers.”
Maybe not as a whole, but certainly as individuals it has had an impact.
The single biggest change this law will bring is that people may possess and consume marijuana without fear of arrest and a criminal record.
The supply side is something else. Going up against a well established industry with an inferior product at higher prices is going to fail. Some consumers will buy that product at that price simply because they don't want to be associated with criminal activity, but I think most consumers (who are already consumers, there's no glut of would-be smokers just waiting patiently for 50 years) will stay in the black market until a) the legal market improves product and lowers prices and/or b) the black market is squeezed out somehow.
The difficulty (for the government) is that possessing it and using it will not distinguish the source. It's like filling a Smirnoff bottle with moonshine. No one will look twice because alcohol is fine.
Previously you could hassle the user, track down the dealer, find the bigger fish, etc. Now the user can just claim it's legit, got it at the government store.
Unless the cops are savvy - "Dude, that sh*t is way too fine to be legal."