2617 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

I think this might be it: https://electionsbce..._Candidate.html

[lanforod]

Thats the same link I posted...

 

Anyways, Libs in the lead by 10%, 3/111 reporting...

Edited by lanforod, 30 January 2019 - 08:46 PM.

[Mike K.]

Your link points to an error, at least it does for me?

[lanforod]

Your link points to an error, at least it does for me?

 

Fixed my post 

[lanforod]

at what point of reports can it be called? 5/111 now has NDP up 5%. 

[Sparky]

^ after the advanced polls have been counted. I think it could be that close.

[Mike K.]

I'd imagine once we cross 15,000 votes (including the 9,300 early votes) we'll have a pretty good idea.

 

In the 2017 election 25,000 voters cast a vote out of ~45,000 eligible voters. We're averaging about 110 votes per box right now.

[Mike K.]

53% for the NDP now, 14 boxes reporting, 1,650 votes (118 per box).

[Mike K.]

122 average now, 16 boxes.

[Mike K.]

LIB: 42.81%

NDP: 47.18%

 

26/111

[Mike K.]

LIB: 41.21%

NDP: 48.53%

 

31/111

[Mike K.]

The interim results make the Mainstreet poll look pretty flaky.

[Victoria Watcher]

and the Georgia Straight that has published an article stating a liberal win.

[Mike K.]

If the average turn-out per box holds, more people will have voted in the by-election than in the 2017, unless the 25k votes didn't include early ballots.

[RFS]

According to people on Twitter there are over 1000 absentee ballots that won’t be counted till next week

[RFS]

and the Georgia Straight that has published an article stating a liberal win.

I guarantee that “mistake” was done on purpose to drive traffic to their site

[Mike K.]

The per-box count keeps rising. 174 now, up from 110.

 

73/111

[Mike K.]

Well, that's all she wrote. The NDP are miles ahead with 49%, LIBs at 41% and 81 boxes have reported.

[Mike K.]

The relatively dismal turn-out for the Greens is a surprise. I would have thought they'd end up with at least 10%, but they're barely above 7%. Maybe that's in response to not wanting to split the NDP vote, or maybe that's an indicator that the 2017 numbers the Greens garnered were indeed the product of a protest vote against the Liberals.

[spanky123]

The interim results make the Mainstreet poll look pretty flaky.

I think that in general, the people who pay for polls get exactly the results that they expect.