You're making my point for me. The people making money are those with the software, not the hardware. In smartphones the people making the profit are Apple and Google (and Samsung a little bit). The dozens of other manufacturers of Android smartphones are dominating in terms of unit sales, but the margins are razor thin. The hardware is a commodity.
My guess is much the same will happen in vehicles but on a slower time scale.
The facts suggest otherwise.
Samsung, the guys with no software, took home 10% of the cellphone industry’s profit. Apple, with its software, went home with 14%. Who’s further ahead? The guy with virtually no software R&D walking home with 10%, or the guy with hardware and software R&D walking home with 14%? It’s pretty much a wash, especially when the guy making the software also relies on the 10% guy to make their hardware.
The future is far more cooperative than we might imagine. Operating in a silo worked in the 60’s but in today’s economy mitigating risk and pursuing co-investment is the faster, more stable route to profitability (ie Apple relying on Samsung, Samsung relying on Google, Google relying on Apple and Samsung) and why the big auto manufacturers are in no rush to pursue Tesla while technology is in rapid development mode and best practices continue to change. They’ll act when it’s time to do so.