11589 replies to this topic

[dasmo]

People said similar things about Apple and then they became the stable company.

[Mike K.]

People said similar things about Apple and then they became the stable company.

 

The company that destroyed a tech darling known as Blackberry.

 

So what is Tesla: Apple or Blackberry? Nobody knows. Hence the valuation irrespective of the company's achievements.

[LeoVictoria]

I think that people will be studying Tesla and Elon Musk for decades, hopefully the business will continue to be around. Elon made the idea of an electric car a reality when many in the industry had given up on it. The reality though is that within another 2-3 years, there will be a dozen cars that either outperform the model S and/or have more versatility than the X for lower prices and from manufacturers with more stability.

There will definitely be dozens of models out there. I think VW has the best chance at competing on price because they are going into it with the scale it requires. The other manufacturers are mostly dragging their feet and will be surprised when costs are too high to make a profit while Tesla has already gotten past that hump.

What’s certain is that Tesla’s share of the market will decline, but that market is going to get much bigger

Edited by LeoVictoria, 11 March 2019 - 12:53 PM.

[LeoVictoria]

Every few months I’m again surprised at the number of EVs in Victoria. Tons of Leafs including the new one, more Model 3 around now, and seeing some of the Hyundai Konas

[dasmo]

There will definitely be dozens of models out there. I think VW has the best chance at competing on price because they are going into it with the scale it requires. The other manufacturers are mostly dragging their feet and will be surprised when costs are too high to make a profit while Tesla has already gotten past that hump.

What’s certain is that Tesla’s share of the market will decline, but that market is going to get much bigger

I agree. This is why my other car company investment is in VW   .

I'll pay more attention to the competition when they announce that they are spending the big bucks on a super charging network, their own Gigafactory in China and their own Gigafactory for making batteries. Until then they are the Blackberries in this story. All hanging on to the old school.... 

[Mike K.]

Every few months I’m again surprised at the number of EVs in Victoria. Tons of Leafs including the new one, more Model 3 around now, and seeing some of the Hyundai Konas

You’re seeing them because your looking for them. You’ll pass 5,000 cars never noticing their make or model, but the 4-5 EV’s you do see jump out at you.

[LeoVictoria]

You’re seeing them because your looking for them. You’ll pass 5,000 cars never noticing their make or model, but the 4-5 EV’s you do see jump out at you.

Clearly. Doesn’t change the fact that the numbers keep growing

[DustMagnet]

You’re seeing them because your looking for them. You’ll pass 5,000 cars never noticing their make or model, but the 4-5 EV’s you do see jump out at you.

 

 

Clearly. Doesn’t change the fact that the numbers keep growing

 

The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon versus registration data?  Do we have (access to) registration data?

[LeoVictoria]

The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon versus registration data? Do we have (access to) registration data?

Yes, i posted the ICBC data for 2017 recently (couple pages back). 2018 will show another big jump but ICBC is very slow with data updates

[DustMagnet]

Yes, i posted the ICBC data for 2017 recently (couple pages back). 2018 will show another big jump but ICBC is very slow with data updates

 

At least the data is available. 

 

Maybe it's both a frequency illusion and more actual vehicles but yes, those Leafs are everywhere.

[Mike K.]

A big jump of a meaningless number is not actually a big jump.

 

There are 600,000 registered vehicles on Vancouver Island. In fact, there are more unregistered vehicles on Vancouver Island than there are EV's. Their presence remains a statistical anomaly on our roads and will for many years to come. Across BC EV's accounted for 0.35% of passenger vehicles only in 2017, not including vehicles registered as commercial vehicles (which includes a huge swath of pick-ups).

 

Even if their number doubles they'll still account for less than 0.7% of passenger vehicles.

[Victoria Watcher]

The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon versus registration data?  Do we have (access to) registration data?

 

Baader-Meinhof phenomenon

[dasmo]

[dasmo]

or not...

[LeoVictoria]

A big jump of a meaningless number is not actually a big jump.

There are 600,000 registered vehicles on Vancouver Island. In fact, there are more unregistered vehicles on Vancouver Island than there are EV's. Their presence remains a statistical anomaly on our roads and will for many years to come. Across BC EV's accounted for 0.35% of passenger vehicles only in 2017, not including vehicles registered as commercial vehicles (which includes a huge swath of pick-ups).

Even if their number doubles they'll still account for less than 0.7% of passenger vehicles.

You will be surprised at the transition.

Currently we are at about 3% of new car sales being EV in BC. Norway was there about 6 years ago now they are at 50%.

They have higher incentives, but that was also a time with very few vehicles on the market. The next 5 years will be a much better selection and we will see a similar transition here. Maybe not quite 50% but it will go from a rounding error to a significant chunk of new car sales. Say 30% in 5 years.

Edited by LeoVictoria, 12 March 2019 - 10:33 AM.

[Mike K.]

When can we realistically expect governments to start taxing EV charging (transit taxes, road taxes, the excise tax and special levies in addition to GST on top of it all)?

BC Hydro already charges a transit levy in Metro Van.

[LeoVictoria]

When can we realistically expect governments to start taxing EV charging (transit taxes, road taxes, the excise tax and special levies in addition to GST on top of it all)?

BC Hydro already charges a transit levy in Metro Van.

Some governments already are.

Our government I think once their targets are comfortably achieved and EV prices drop to the point where they don’t need to be incentivized. I imagine the $5000 credit will be phased out in about 5 years as well.

Edited by LeoVictoria, 12 March 2019 - 07:12 PM.

[Tom Braybrook]

When can we realistically expect governments to start taxing EV charging (transit taxes, road taxes, the excise tax and special levies in addition to GST on top of it all)?

BC Hydro already charges a transit levy in Metro Van.

...i guess never since we (those of us with solar panels) can make our own electricity and the guvmint can't track us, whereas ICE vehicles can't make their own gasoline...

[MarkoJ]

Bet this vehicle won't be making news across the world -

> https://www.timescol...erni-1.23661608

[Mike K.]

...i guess never since we (those of us with solar panels) can make our own electricity and the guvmint can't track us, whereas ICE vehicles can't make their own gasoline...

 

You'll need quite the solar farm to keep your home and your vehicle(s) fully juiced up.

 

And even then, hydro will just tack on a levy and you'll have no choice but to pay it, like lower mainland residents who don't drive but are paying a transit tax via their electrical bill.