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Addiction and mental illness in Victoria


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#1501 On the Level

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Posted 22 January 2022 - 11:50 PM

Not just rise. But rise to the highest level in North America.

 

It's a social experiment.  There is always a delay.  UVIC is going to see a reckoning.  Disgraceful.  We will bail them out but it is truly horrible. Shame.  


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#1502 Moderation

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 10:12 AM

Why?

I can assure you few of our overdoses are occurring in Fairfield and Rockland and probably not James Bay or Fernwood or Oaklands either.

The comparison is per capita based on the municipality.

And we have not only the highest number of overdose prevention sites in North America, but we also have the highest overdose rate in North America.

Size Matters

 

When making comparisons between communities many different factors affect issues like homelessness and overdose calls.

 

One easy way to compare communities is by population. City boundaries are arbitrary and often dependent on the history of the community and surrounding region. The Victoria region with 13 communities around the city core is a good example. These areas vary in population, Highlands 2200, Saanich 114148 and size Esquimalt 7.08 sq km, Saanich 103.78 sq. km.

 

There is no other city in BC of 19.47 sq. km at the center of an urban area with a population of 367,707 Comparing the city of Victoria to other communities based only on population is not comparing equal situations.

 

City of Victoria overdose call rate 2275 per 100,000. Add Oak Bay, Esquimalt, and View Royal the rate is 1594 per 100,000. The area of these communities is 51.44 sq. km. Add Saanich and you have what is often defined as the  community of Victoria. The rate is 994 per 100,000 and the area is 155.22 sq. km. The city of Vancouver is 114.97 sq. km and a rate of 1582 per 100,000.

 

All these numbers are correct if I did my calculations correctly but give different impressions and possible conclusions. It is important to look past just numbers when comparisons are made. It is important to check to see that you are comparing as much as possible things that are equal or are there other important factors that need to be considered.  When comparing city of Victoria statistics this is especially important.

 

Note; 2016 population numbers used with 2021 overdose numbers. I assume community area (sq. km) have not changed..

 

For general information on use or abuse of statistics

https://tvtropes.org...esAndStatistics



#1503 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 10:14 AM

Garbage.

But there will always be some to try to explain away our disastrous policies as some type of sampling error.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 23 January 2022 - 10:15 AM.


#1504 kitty surprise

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 10:48 AM

Using other municipalities far lower OD rates to bring Victoria's average down is gaslighting at its best. Have we found Bernie Pauly troll account? Maybe one of the fab four?
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#1505 Moderation

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 11:06 AM

Garbage.

But there will always be some to try to explain away our disastrous policies as some type of sampling error.

 

I made no effort to explain away anything or any policy judgment.. We have a serious overdose problem  in Victoria, BC and Canada and in many other countries

.

I was providing information and perspective relevant to looking at Victoria data when population alone is used to make comparisons. As well as answering your question ,why to consider area (sq.km)for example vs Vancouver downtown east side area.

 

If there are some factual inaccuracies please point them out..( I made a good effort to collect and calculate the data)

 

I think there is also a strong link between population density and overdose calls as well as the location of services and supportive and shelter housing.  Community population ratio numbers are one easy and simple way to tell the story because that information is easy to get. It just paints part of the picture.



#1506 Barrrister

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 11:11 AM

Moderation is just a woke troll ignore him. Typical troll garbage from the extreme left. 



#1507 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 11:15 AM

I made no effort to explain away anything or any policy judgment.. We have a serious overdose problem in Victoria, BC and Canada and in many other countries
..


But we have the WORST ONE IN ALL OF NORTH AMERICA.

#1508 Moderation

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 11:57 AM

But we have the WORST ONE IN ALL OF NORTH AMERICA.

 

Based on population ratios Victoria does.in BC. We agree we have a problem.

 

To be most meaningful stats need to be in a context. 

 

Based on area Esquimalt has a rate of overdose calls of 10.6 per sq. km and Surrey has a rate of 11.6 per sq. km. From that you could conclude that the overdose call situation was similar between the two communities. This accurate result is because Surrey is a large area compared with Esquimalt.  Based on population the results look much different. The context factors you choose to use to compare make a difference.

 

I only pointed out that when just using population when comparing Victoria to other communities  that there are other context factors than are important..



#1509 Mike K.

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 08:33 AM

No two communities are alike. That much should be obvious.


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#1510 Moderation

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:52 AM

No two communities are alike. That much should be obvious.

 

 

I agree. I am not saying that any of the data numbers comparing Victoria to other communities based on population is wrong, I am not downplaying the seriousness of the overdose or homeless situation in Victoria.

 

All cities have some differences.  The city of Victoria is different from most if not all other cities in Canada.

 

There is no other city in BC of its population and small area. 19.47 sq. km at the center of an urban area and composed of 13 communities with a total population of 367,707+  In other similar city situations the population numbers considers some part of a larger contiguous community. Comparing the city of Victoria to other cities based only on population is not comparing equal situations.

 

This unique aspect of  the city of Victoria affects the resulting numbers more  than other city differences when comparisons are made with other cities, especially when based on population. This factor can result in the number looking better or worse depending on what you may be comparing.

 

It is important to recognize this aspect when drawing conclusions.  Comparisons with other cities may be  more appropriate if some  part of the 13 communities around Victoria are included. This is in no way to water down the information but to make the comparison more equal, (Comparing apples to apples).

 

Note; New Westminster and North Vancouver are both small in area and have populations greater than 50,000. They are not the core of the Vancouver region communities.



#1511 Mike K.

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:59 AM

Comparing the city of Victoria to other cities based only on population is not comparing equal situations.

 

It is when the overdose crisis is concentrated in only one municipality, that being Victoria.


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#1512 Moderation

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 11:53 AM

It is when the overdose crisis is concentrated in only one municipality, that being Victoria.

 

I think you may have missed my point. No matter what item you select to compare (overdose ,electric car ownership,  restaurants etc.) The same bias effect that I described still applies. when you compare Victoria to other cities based on population.

 

 I am not saying there is not a problem in Victoria with the overdose crisis.

 

Lets look at overdose calls: .Victoria has a crisis as does Vancouver and many other cities. 

 

Overdose calls are also concentrated in relatively small areas of most cities. Someone said relatively few overdose  calls are to be expected in Fairfield or Rockland. Do we have the data to support that, probably not.

 

In Vancouver we could compare the down town east side or other areas of overdose concentration in Vancouver with a Victoria area of overdose calls.. However  there is no information easily available on the number of calls in those concentrated area, or  area population numbers or clear boundaries. Therefore the information we use to decide the rate is the boundary and population of the city of Vancouver. 

 

One could claim that  Vancouver was watering down the problem by selecting to use all of the Vancouver  population number to create ratios for example when comparing cities. 

 

It would be more accurate to look at those areas of concentrated problems in cities and relate that to the area population for those areas for  comparison rather than using city boundaries to decide the population numbers in the calculation. That information is not easily available so for ease city boundaries are often used.

 

When comparing cities as I described before there are some unique aspects to the city of Victoria boundaries that make comparing almost anything using only population and especially ratios an issue. It is not comparing equals. (Apples to apples). 

 

I return to my original statement that when you compare Victoria to other cities based only on population there is a bias effect that you need to be aware of for the reasons  I outlined .

 

Whether Victoria or Vancouver or somewhere else has a bigger problem is not as important in my opinion as recognizing the problems and trying to address them.



#1513 phx

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 12:18 PM

 The city of Victoria is different from most if not all other cities in Canada.

 

There is no other city in BC...

 

 

... with Lisa Helps as mayor.



#1514 Moderation

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 12:54 PM

Not only can you use statistics to create inaccurate impressions you can selectively edit to create false connections or impressions as well.

 

I do not see how this relates to the discussion. Perhaps it does not?

 

We all can have our opinion.

Please do not use incomplete quotes to create whatever impression you may wish to suggest. if that is what you are doing in this example.

 

Just say it and own it.

 

"The city of Victoria is different from most if not all other cities in Canada. There is no other city in BC with Lisa Helps  as mayor""

I agree.

 

Just curious, did you mean something more than this statement?



#1515 Mike K.

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 01:34 PM

I think you may have missed my point.


I get your point fully, but your explanation doesn’t move me.

The City of Victoria has a serious overdose crisis on its hands, whether you lump in Oak Bay and Esquimalt or not. The influx of individuals with addiction issues is the culprit unless you have data to show otherwise.

And no, artificial timelines like we saw with the homeless count (deciding when someone becomes a “local” after moving here with addiction issues) doesn’t count.
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#1516 Midnightly

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 02:13 PM

but do also consider that these statistics are often used for other things like policing.. there are some on council and this city who say we are over policed, we have one of the highest per capita rates of officers in canada.. they never break that down by the CRD as a whole.. that number is always based strictly for victoria proper.. and you have to admit the addiction/mental illness crisis on the streets directly effects the amount of policing needed within this city



#1517 Mike K.

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 02:16 PM

The over-policing brigade doesn’t like to talk about caseloads per officer, because it erodes their position.

We have a massively overworked police force in the CoV, and it’s during a time of business unusual as half the city centre’s jobs remain vacant and nightclubs/bars are not operating at full capacity or at all.

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#1518 phx

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 03:14 PM

 

 

I do not see how this relates to the discussion. Perhaps it does not?

 

 

 

My point is that Victoria’s exceptional drug problems stem, in part, from the city’s unique leadership.


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#1519 Moderation

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 03:17 PM

I get your point fully, but your explanation doesn’t move me.
 

Great! My purpose is to try to inform people not to move them. .

 


The City of Victoria has a serious overdose crisis on its hands, whether you lump in Oak Bay and Esquimalt or not. The influx of individuals with addiction issues is the culprit unless you have data to show otherwise.

 

 

I agree we have serious problems on all those fronts and frequently said so on all those fronts.

 

but do also consider that these statistics are often used for other things like policing.. there are some on council and this city who say we are over policed, we have one of the highest per capita rates of officers in canada.. they never break that down by the CRD as a whole.. that number is always based strictly for victoria proper.. and you have to admit the addiction/mental illness crisis on the streets directly effects the amount of policing needed within this city

 

 I agree. How we use. statistics is important . They .can be used and abused and support what are contradictory conclusions making the same data comparisons. That was the main message from all of the above. It is important to be aware that numbers only tell part of the story. It also important to know where they come from, and how have they were calculated and if they are being used to support a particular bias.

 

 

 




 



#1520 Mike K.

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 03:19 PM

Let me rephrase that. You’re trying to explain away the reality of the situation, by inferring land mass has something to do with the sad state of affairs.

It does not.
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