Given how split the vote is, it's almost remarkable that the Conservatives aren't able to make a better showing here. The right candidate and some tweaks to the platform (ie. quitting the notion that appeasing the far right has any merit)....and they could make in roads.
That won't happen until people completely forget about Stephen Harper and his anti-science stances, which might take a while yet.
That said, the Conservatives - just like all the other parties - can't seem to find any sort of decent blend of fiscally responsible* and socially moderate-to-progressive**.
* - as in, don't spend what you don't have but at the same time don't privatize things that really should be in the public trust. The left wants to over-spend, the right wants to over-cut and over-privatize.
** - as in, as far as possible ignore anything from the 'religious right' (which is where the right fails) and at the same time ignore anything that raises special interests above everyone else (this is where the left fails).
That's a 75-word summary of stuff I could - but won't, I'll spare ya! - rattle off 7500 or even 75000 words on.