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2020 City of Victoria By-Election | April 4, 2020


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#701 Rob Randall

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 08:21 AM

Schmid is the quintessential eccentric professor. Nice guy but not a serious candidate. 

 

Here's his half-hearted website:

 

http://www.alexanderschmid.ca/

 

It's one of the most puzzling things I can't wrap my head around. These candidates that put a lot of effort into running but not nearly enough effort to boost them into even the second tier, yet lack the self-awareness to do anything about it or even recognize there might be a flaw in their plan. I'm completely perplexed.


Edited by Rob Randall, 29 February 2020 - 08:30 AM.

"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#702 Rob Randall

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 09:04 AM

I just want to sit them down and say, look--you got 0.8 percent of the vote last time. What are you going to change about your campaign to improve those numbers?

 

"Not a thing, Rob! I'm on the right track! In fact, I haven't even updated my social media accounts since 2018. I can smell victory!"


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#703 Rob Randall

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 09:07 AM

Don't forget Stephen Andrew got 9,098 votes last time. His 2018 runner-up finish would have made him the top vote getter in 2011, beating out Geoff Young's 8,940 who at the time was riding high as the bridge accountability councillor.


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"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#704 Kapten Kapsell

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 09:39 AM

There are 9 total candidates in the election - it looks like Forbes might be in construction/development:

 

https://www.timescol...seat-1.24087303



#705 Belleprincess

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 11:08 AM

Who are we thinking will win the by-election? Seems to be a lot of sjw/ progressive candidates running. I’m hoping they’ll split the vote. Is TV losing steam? I’m a little left of center and the clear choice for me is Stephen
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#706 Jacques Cadé

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 12:08 PM

It's one of the most puzzling things I can't wrap my head around. These candidates that put a lot of effort into running but not nearly enough effort to boost them into even the second tier, yet lack the self-awareness to do anything about it or even recognize there might be a flaw in their plan. I'm completely perplexed.

 

My guess is that they 1) have no intention of winning but want to use the electoral process to voice their opinions, instead of simply writing a letter to the TC, or 2) they believe their brilliant ideas and flawless oratory will somehow win over masses of voters at all-candidates' forums and propel them to office.

Trouble is, the no-hopers actually make it harder to organize candidates' forums, and deter some voters from attending them.

After the 2018 Vancouver election, in which 71 people ran for council, Mario Conseco found that 76% of surveyed voters wanted to see the number of signatures required for nominations raised from 25 to 100: https://biv.com/arti...ncil-candidates

 

We should ask the province to let municipalities increase the required number of signatures. If you can't get 100 people to support your candidacy in a city like Victoria with 70,000 voters, you shouldn't be running and wasting our time.


Edited by Jacques Cadé, 29 February 2020 - 12:08 PM.

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#707 Bernard

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 12:31 PM

I think VV should invite them all to take part on the forum to discuss their ideas. I would suggest Mike offer to them each a decimated thread that will be well moderated so that they are comfortable engaging here
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#708 Rob Randall

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 12:49 PM

There is some risk. It's tempting to engage with every poster on VV, especially if they say something irksome. But I've seen a candidate totally imploding after engaging with a couple of trolls here. Actually, they weren't trolls, they were just asking pointed residency questions the candidate took as personal attacks on integrity. It was messy.


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#709 John M.

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 04:48 PM

Based off of nomination signature names I recognize, seems like Stefanie Hardeman has the support mainly of NDP partisans and a few non-NDP floating lefties, Rachel Montgomery is the establishment "green" candidate, Jeremy Cardonna falls somewhere between those two, and Stephen mainly has the support of federal Liberals with a smattering of other supporters from across the spectrum.



#710 Kapten Kapsell

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 05:27 PM

Based off of nomination signature names I recognize, seems like Stefanie Hardeman has the support mainly of NDP partisans and a few non-NDP floating lefties, Rachel Montgomery is the establishment "green" candidate, Jeremy Cardonna falls somewhere between those two, and Stephen mainly has the support of federal Liberals with a smattering of other supporters from across the spectrum.


Given the NDP leadership’s strong distaste for Isitt, and the closeness of Isitt to the TV slate, Hardeman might not get a lot of support from NDP voters. I can see Stephen Andrew appealing to a lot of NDP voters, especially with his support for the arts community and experience overcoming homelessness...

#711 Stephen Andrew

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 06:19 PM

Based off of nomination signature names I recognize, seems like Stefanie Hardeman has the support mainly of NDP partisans and a few non-NDP floating lefties, Rachel Montgomery is the establishment "green" candidate, Jeremy Cardonna falls somewhere between those two, and Stephen mainly has the support of federal Liberals with a smattering of other supporters from across the spectrum.


While I can see gazing into the nomination forms is a worthwhile guessing game as to support, in my case it‘s a fool’s errand.

I deliberately grabbed names across the spectrum. One or two are party names, but that’s because I bumped into them or sought advice. Purely coincidence.

😜
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#712 Spy Black

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 06:36 PM

What should be banned is fringe candidates who run with no desire or intention of actually getting elected (note that I'm not saying ban fringe candidates who want to get elected).

These are the fringe or "other agenda" candidates who use the election only to elevate that "other agenda", one which definitely doesn't include getting elected (and is often obtuse enough to be just plain weird).

 

This would cut down the field by a healthy amount, and make it less onerous for serious voters to parse which candidate represents their values.

 

In the case of this by-election, Stephen Andrews seems a strong and very logical choice in terms of a candidate that has demonstrated a serious intent to change the direction of the current City Council.

Regardless of who your candidate is, the premise to avoid is the one which says "oh, I don't need to vote, he/she is going to win anyway".

Folks need to physically get out and vote for their candidate.

 

Given even another hint of a mandate, "Together Victoria" will literally destroy any hope of ever regaining the soul of the City of Victoria.


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#713 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 04:49 AM

The candidates who filed nomination papers by the deadline are:

 

• Stephen Andrew, a former executive director of Kidney Cancer Canada and the first runner-up for council in 2018.

• Jeremy Caradonna, a climate policy maker with B.C.’s Climate Action Secretariat and adjunct professor at the University of Victoria.

• Peter J. Forbes, a general contractor and builder in Victoria’s residential sector.

• Riga Godron, who ran for a council seat in the 2018 general election.

• Stefanie Hardman, a researcher, urban planner and the nominee of Together Victoria, a registered elector organization that supported Collins, Coun. Sharmarke Dubow and Coun. Sarah Potts in 2018

• Gordon MacKinnon, who ran for a council seat in the 2014 general election.

• Rachael Montgomery, a registered nurse and a manager in the learning and performance support department at Island Health.

• Keith Rosenberg, a Canadian veteran on disability who ran in last year’s federal election representing the Veterans Coalition Party.

• Alexander Schmid, a physics lab instructor at the University of Victoria and a former mayoral candidate in 2018.

 

https://www.timescol...seat-1.24087303


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 01 March 2020 - 04:49 AM.

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#714 Mike K.

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 08:03 AM

The only thing the TC can say about Godron and MacKinnon is that they formerly sought council seats?
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#715 John M.

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 10:42 AM

Prediction:

 

Top Two (Will likely finish in this order)

Stephen Andrew

Stefanie Hardman

 

Almost in the Top Two (Would likely replace Hardman in the top two)

Jeremy Caradonna

 

Second Tier

Rachel Montgomery 

 

Bottom Tier

Riga Godron

Gordon MacKinnon

Keith Rosenberg

Alexander Schmid (Could be more serious if he actually campaigned)

 

Peter Forbes could either be second tier or bottom tier, depending on how he campaigns 


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#716 Stephen Andrew

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 11:37 AM

Prediction:

Top Two (Will likely finish in this order)
Stephen Andrew
Stefanie Hardman

Almost in the Top Two (Would likely replace Hardman in the top two)
Jeremy Caradonna

Second Tier
Rachel Montgomery

Bottom Tier
Riga Godron
Gordon MacKinnon
Keith Rosenberg
Alexander Schmid (Could be more serious if he actually campaigned)

Peter Forbes could either be second tier or bottom tier, depending on how he campaigns


Let’s hope you have a better crystal ball than I. 😉

I’m not under estimating the TV machine cobbled from NDP supporters and supporters such as Isitt and Loveday.

Also they have a certain “incumbent bounce” as Dubow and Potts will be on the door with Hardman. Then there the “Collins factory” - she will use her machine to help.

Inside the bubble... what lists are they using for GOTV?

Any help on that would be appreciated.

And then I you are downplaying the perceived “Lisa Helps endorsed candidate”, Rachel Montgomery.

Helps will do nearly anything to prevent me from winning. I believe I would be her last choice. But thankfully she’s only one vote.

Thank you for that amazing vote of confidence.

This isn’t going to be easy. Having said that, I have more volunteers and donations arriving daily. If that is any indication - people want to see change at the council table. I know I can bring that.

S
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#717 Nparker

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 04:00 PM

I’m not under estimating the TV machine...they have a certain “incumbent bounce” as Dubow and Potts will be on the door with Hardman. Then there [is] the “Collins factory” - she will use her machine to help...Helps will do nearly anything to prevent me from winning...

This sums up for me why Stephen Andrew must win. Most of the current council are either corrupt, incompetent or both...and this does not bode well for the future of my city.


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#718 jasmineshinga

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Posted 02 March 2020 - 07:00 AM

Ugh. Found a Rachael Montgomery adbill stuck to my community message board today. Yet another candidate who can't stick to their own municipality. I'll be checking the others over the coming weeks... Obviously I took it down and write to her campaign email about the error. Hopefully she doesn't pull an Isitt and start sending me endless emails.

~ Jasmine ~


#719 Rob Randall

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Posted 02 March 2020 - 07:17 AM

^Where, exactly?


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#720 jasmineshinga

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Posted 02 March 2020 - 08:16 AM

Admiral's Walk shopping plaza - View Royal.


~ Jasmine ~


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