I admit I have little solid data behind my prediction but in the absence of a strong and active campaign from Stephen Andrew......
If that's your data point, then I'd disagree with your definition of "strong and active campaign".
Stephen is campaigning very actively, and showing up everywhere right now, including on my Facebook pages and in general conversation at work.
The TV machine is indeed well oiled - but their platform is to essentially destroy the City of Victoria as we know it by turning massive tracts of the city into slums, occupied by people who were invited to come here to Victoria, but for whom the COV and Council have done little more than offer up the original invitation. We now know that the current Mayor and Council certainly haven't got a strategy in place for how to deal with the next 1000 homeless, drug addicted, or mentally ill people who come to Victoria from across the country, at Victoria Councils invitation.