2544 replies to this topic

[Greg]

Ideally candidates for Victoria City Council would both live in Victoria city limits, and also, actually know what the city limits were.

 

Or: You can't expect a councilor to understand the limited role of city council, if they don't even understand the limited boundaries of the city

 

/Couldn't decide which was better../

[Rob Randall]

Admiral's Walk shopping plaza - View Royal.

 

Wow, that's a couple of municipalities over.

 

Mind you, that plaza is probably popular with the Vic West border dwellers. It's the closest Thrifty Foods, Coast Capital and Canadian Tire.

Edited by Rob Randall, 02 March 2020 - 09:25 AM.

[Bernard]

While I can see gazing into the nomination forms is a worthwhile guessing game as to support, in my case it‘s a fool’s errand.

I deliberately grabbed names across the spectrum. One or two are party names, but that’s because I bumped into them or sought advice. Purely coincidence.

Looking at the names helps with the people that are complete unknowns, which basically everyone is other than you and Stephanie Hardman

[Rob Randall]

Looking at the names helps with the people that are complete unknowns, which basically everyone is other than you and Stephanie Hardman

 

Pam Madoff signed Riga Godron's papers which I took not so much as an endorsement as an act of pity.

[Bernard]

My current prediction, for what is worth

Prediction:

Stephanie Hardman

Stephen Andrew

Jeremy Caradonna

Rachel Montgomery 

Peter Forbes

Gordon MacKinnon

Riga Godron

Keith Rosenberg

Alexander Schmid 

 

I admit I have little solid data behind my prediction but in the absence of a strong and active campaign from Stephen Andrew I do not see Stephanie Hardman losing.   Jeremy Cardonna, Rachel Montgomery and Peter Forbes I think will do little more than get a sense of hard it is to run in an election and either ramp things up in 2021 or give up on the idea.   The last four are a good reason why we should require signature equal to 0.5% of the electoral, which would only be about 340 in the City of Victoria and a trivial task if you are actually going to campaign.

[jasmineshinga]

Wow, that's a couple of municipalities over.

 

Mind you, that plaza is probably popular with the Vic West border dwellers. It's the closest Thrifty Foods, Coast Capital and Canadian Tire.

Doubtful. Vic West has Save-on-Foods (cheaper), Castle (better), and Coast Capital's downtown branch is closer.

 

Whomever posted this up had to travel 5km out of their way to make the error. Impressive level of incompetence.

[Spy Black]

 

I admit I have little solid data behind my prediction but in the absence of a strong and active campaign from Stephen Andrew......

If that's your data point, then I'd disagree with your definition of "strong and active campaign".

Stephen is campaigning very actively, and showing up everywhere right now, including on my Facebook pages and in general conversation at work. 

 

The TV machine is indeed well oiled - but their platform is to essentially destroy the City of Victoria as we know it by turning massive tracts of the city into slums, occupied by people who were invited to come here to Victoria, but for whom the COV and Council have done little more than offer up the original invitation. We now know that the current Mayor and Council certainly haven't got a strategy in place for how to deal with the next 1000 homeless, drug addicted, or mentally ill people who come to Victoria from across the country, at Victoria Councils invitation.

[Victoria Watcher]

with presumably both strong candidates easily hitting the $27k spending limit the key will be good messaging / ad copy and those "free" door knocking teams.  i'm sure andrew's team will not be larger.  his message will need to be the best.

[Bernard]

If that's your data point, then I'd disagree with your definition of "strong and active campaign".

Stephen is campaigning very actively, and showing up everywhere right now, including on my Facebook pages and in general conversation at work. 

 

The TV machine is indeed well oiled - but their platform is to essentially destroy the City of Victoria as we know it by turning massive tracts of the city into slums, occupied by people who were invited to come here to Victoria, but for whom the COV and Council have done little more than offer up the original invitation. We now know that the current Mayor and Council certainly haven't got a strategy in place for how to deal with the next 1000 homeless, drug addicted, or mentally ill people who come to Victoria from across the country, at Victoria Councils invitation.

I do not know how strong Stephen Andrew's campaign and that is something I will get a better sense of over time.

 

Political campaigns really suffer a lot from confirmation bias leading people involved with campaigns to vastly overestimate their side's chances and underestimate the opposition's.   When you want to see someone win and you are caught in the energy it is very easy to not see the real situation on the ground.   I have fallen into this trap a lot over the years, most often when running a campaign but being delusional about the chances of winning are basically a job requirement of a campaign manager.

Edited by Bernard, 02 March 2020 - 10:15 AM.

[RFS]

Very true.  How else do you explain the fact that on betting websites people actually place bets on things like Republicans winning California? 

[Victoria Watcher]

Very true.  How else do you explain the fact that on betting websites people actually place bets on things like Republicans winning California? 

 

well it's risk/reward.  nobody is placing straight bets on republicans winning california.

[Kapten Kapsell]

But you need not live in Victoria proper to vote In the by election if you own property in the city?

[DavidL]

with presumably both strong candidates easily hitting the $27k spending limit the key will be good messaging / ad copy and those "free" door knocking teams. i'm sure andrew's team will not be larger. his message will need to be the best.

I think core messaging will be very important. Thinking about those uncommitted voters, is there traction in the simple message that with respect to the TV candidate, we already have 4 or 5 essentially identical councillors, and a different perspective on council can only help in making better decisions?

Edited by DavidL, 02 March 2020 - 11:35 AM.

[Jackerbie]

But you need not live in Victoria proper to vote In the by election if you own property in the city?

 

Yes, provided that you meet the non-resident property elector criteria. Victoria has a FAQ page with lots of good info: https://www.victoria...for-voters.html

[Victoria Watcher]

But you need not live in Victoria proper to vote In the by election if you own property in the city?

 

the amount of people that vote via this process is quite small i believe.  i once tried to encourage a friend to vote this way and they did not want to go through the bother and they also felt they were double-dipping by voting in two municipalities too.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 02 March 2020 - 11:35 AM.

[Bernard]

But you need not live in Victoria proper to vote In the by election if you own property in the city?

Property owners can vote if they apply to the City to vote but only owners that own the property in their own name, there can no corporate ownership of the property at all.   Beyond that you have to meet the requirements of the resident electors other than residency

 

In the past when people could vote for every property they owned and corporately owned properties counted, there could be a fair number of these voters as the business community in various areas organized the business owners.  Now it is a handful, maybe a few hundred?

[Bernard]

At work I listen to CFAX most mornings and I have yet to hear a single campaign ad.  CFAX is relatively cheap and the demographic is older people more likely to vote.   I would think this would be a good place in a by-election to campaign because there is a single race on.  

[Rob Randall]

^That can be expensive proposition for a campaign lasting four weeks. Maybe we'll see some radio ads in three weeks.

 

Is a FOCUS magazine coming out before election day? That's a crucial ad buy but now that it's only every two months it might be too late. 

 

How about Coffee News? There's your older demographic.

[RFS]

I'd pour money into facebook over anything else

[Bernard]

I'd pour money into facebook over anything else

One reason to go CFAX early is to reach out and try to engage people to join the campaign, there are a lot of very motivated people that listen.

 

Facebook is not a great platform to usefully engage people when it comes to politics