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COVID ECONOMICS


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#1 VIResident

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 12:04 PM

COVID is a public health crises full stop. 

Second, COVID-19 comes with significant economic effects. 

My hope is, here, all things relatable to our local, provincial and national economics can be discussed.  



#2 VIResident

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 04:28 AM

https://www.capitale...e-coronavirus/#



#3 VIResident

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 04:41 AM

Oil

 

Demand has always mattered despite all the other 'fluff' you've been reading about over the years.

Nice to see we are back-to-basics.

 

Sure, geo-political impacted the drama of late, and tucked in behind, hiding in the weeds - demand. 



#4 VIResident

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 04:43 AM

The Future Today Institute

https://futuretodayinstitute.com/

 

 

“Your goal right now isn’t predictions. It’s preparation for what comes next. We must shift our mindset from making predictions to being prepared.”

https://medium.com/s...ty-a4fbdff4b8c6



#5 VIResident

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 04:57 AM

“If we don’t find some method or some means of government support … we’re on track to lose close to $300 million this year"

https://www.timescol...ions-1.24121352

Without some kind of support “that’s going to be radical surgery on the ferry system, because $300 million is just breathtaking.”


#6 VIResident

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 05:04 AM

Real Estate

 

Demand has always mattered.

 

“as measures implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are gradually lifted, we expect that low interest rates and pent-up demand will translate to a significant recovery in home sales and prices.”  https://www.timescol...crea-1.24121081



#7 Mike K.

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 06:23 AM

The fact that some oil supplies are costing more to deliver to market than the market will pay for them, and that we’re sitting at a $1 per litre, shows just how poor our supply chain is that not even generally weak demand tethered to a massive over supply can nudge prices far below a buck. Oil is drowning in its own supply and we still can’t catch a break.

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#8 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 06:28 AM

The fact that some oil supplies are costing more to deliver to market than the market will pay for them, and that we’re sitting at a $1 per litre, shows just how poor our supply chain is

 

it actually shows you how amazing our just-in-time supply chain is.  no money is normally wasted on expensive storage.  

 

oil is a bit of a funny thing.  the "tap" is expensive to turn off.  at both the wellhead and at the refinery.  and it does not store particularly easy.   so of course the only solution to these issues is pricing.    this glut arriving right when home and industry space heating needs is slowing (with the season) and spring and summer car vacationing picks up (except this year it's not happening) is also not helpful.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 21 April 2020 - 06:29 AM.

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#9 Mike K.

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 06:58 AM

Overall it’s amazing, but it’s a wild mess in southwest BC. The stuff arrives via pipeline from out east, gets diverted to the United States for refining, them gets diverted back north for distribution, them gets put on a barge for shipping across the straight, then gets distributed to local stations.

That diversion to the US shouldn’t be happening.

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#10 spanky123

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 07:50 AM

 

“If we don’t find some method or some means of government support … we’re on track to lose close to $300 million this year"

https://www.timescol...ions-1.24121352

Without some kind of support “that’s going to be radical surgery on the ferry system, because $300 million is just breathtaking.”

 

 

Sounds to me like they have their answer. When I suggest that the Government pays people to sit at home and do nothing folks scoff.

 

In the meantime, the corporation is paying 75 per cent of the wages for about 600 furloughed regular employees, along with benefits.



#11 Mike K.

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 05:34 PM

Could that be a union issue? I met with a colleague today and he was saying that more local governments and government agencies will be laying people off as they can’t manage the demands placed upon them by unions, in that the unions are not happy that some union members are being told to work from home while others can’t do their jobs from home and must be at work.

BCF could be keeping workers “on the job” to ensure they don’t end up with job action down the line, maybe?

In any case, my colleague said there are likely to be municipal and government layoffs coming if unions don’t cool their jets.

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#12 VIResident

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 07:23 PM

Could that be a union issue? I met with a colleague today and he was saying that more local governments and government agencies will be laying people off as they can’t manage the demands placed upon them by unions, in that the unions are not happy that some union members are being told to work from home while others can’t do their jobs from home and must be at work.

BCF could be keeping workers “on the job” to ensure they don’t end up with job action down the line, maybe?

In any case, my colleague said there are likely to be municipal and government layoffs coming if unions don’t cool their jets.

Hit the nail on the head Mike and not just Gov employees union - other unions as well - they'd all better step up here, these are extraordinary

times and agreements need some relaxing and breathing room or s*it is going to hit the fan hard.  FFS this is not hard to figure out and the public will have a very low tolerance for any BS from any union. 


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#13 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 22 April 2020 - 04:46 AM

Huge drop in inflation recorded in March
According to Statistics Canada, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis last month, down from a 2.2 per cent increase in February.


great news. the cost of a restaurant meal or a haircut remained almost unchanged.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 22 April 2020 - 04:47 AM.


#14 VIResident

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Posted 22 April 2020 - 04:57 AM

Saanich cuts property-tax hike to 2.4%

https://www.timescol...-2-4-1.24121968

 

What do you think?  Good enough?  

 

"Saanich council has decided to cut this year’s property-tax increase to the rate of inflation to provide further relief for residents hard hit by the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

 

Councillors had already reduced the 2020 tax lift to 3.74 per cent from 7.2 per cent, but voted 6-3 Monday to slash it again to 2.4 per cent.

 

"......It’s still unclear how council will pay for the reduction. Haynes offered a couple of possible scenarios, including using surplus funds or reducing the transfer to facility reserves by about $1.7 million, but staff have yet to report back with recommendations.

 

".....Victoria scrapped its 3.35 per cent tax lift in favour of a zero per cent increase, and Colwood is aiming for zero as well.

 

 

North Saanich approved an average tax increase of 3.29 per cent for residential properties, but deferred a $50 water infrastructure replacement tax hike, reducing the tax increase for an average residence to $41.

 

 

Coun. Colin Plant voted against the motion, saying it fell short of what is needed. “I, as one member of this council, cannot stomach any increase at all,” he said."


Edited by VIResident, 22 April 2020 - 05:00 AM.


#15 spanky123

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Posted 22 April 2020 - 06:56 AM

I would prefer to see the munis focus their efforts on reducing service levels and costs to bring them in line with revenue projections. Raiding reserves or lowering taxes without doing that just pushes the pain back a year. Does anyone think they will be in a better position next year to pay 2x the property tax increases to recapture what was waived this year?


Edited by spanky123, 22 April 2020 - 06:56 AM.

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#16 VIResident

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 04:41 AM

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global SysThe Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System
April 21, 2020

 

"...........The coming of global information networks deepened Taleb’s concern.

He reserved a special impatience for economists who saw these networks as stabilizing—who thought that the average thought or action, derived from an ever-widening group, would produce an increasingly tolerable standard—and who believed that crowds had wisdom, and bigger crowds more wisdom.

Thus networked, institutional buyers and sellers were supposed to produce more rational markets, a supposition that seemed to justify the deregulation of derivatives, in 2000, which helped accelerate the crash of 2008.

 

As Taleb told me, “The great danger has always been too much connectivity.” Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and “fragile” system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror.

 

Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

 

covid-19 has initiated ordinary citizens into the esoteric “mayhem” that Taleb’s writings portend. Who knows what will change for countries when the pandemic ends? What we do know, Taleb says, is what cannot remain the same. He is “too much a cosmopolitan” to want global networks undone, even if they could be. But he does want the institutional equivalent of “circuit breakers, fail-safe protocols, and backup systems,” many of which he summarizes in his fourth, and favorite, book, “Antifragile,” published in 2012. For countries, he envisions political and economic principles that amount to an analogue of his investment strategy: government officials and corporate executives accepting what may seem like too-small gains from their investment dollars, while protecting themselves from catastrophic loss.

 

https://www.newyorke...e-global-system


Edited by VIResident, 23 April 2020 - 04:42 AM.


#17 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 04:55 AM

in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

 

 

except that does not happen.



#18 VIResident

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 05:02 AM

What does the oil price drop mean for the average Canadian?

.........“For some companies, they’ll have conditions on their debt that require them to keep producing,” Leach said. “So if they were to decide to shut down production… they’d have ongoing covenants in their debt that would say, ‘You must demonstrate your ability to produce a particular volume.'”

So any companies that do have conditions that require production would have to pay off their debt as a consequence if they were to halt production.

Harrison said that he believes companies are likely also worried about being left behind in the global production market.

https://globalnews.c...lainer-economy/



#19 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 05:14 AM

A new survey by Restaurants Canada has revealed that a large number of food service businesses will not survive the COVID-19 pandemic unless long-term solutions are put in place.

 

The survey, the results of which were released on Thursday, shows that 75 per cent of respondents are very concerned about their current level of debt.

 

If conditions do not improve within three months, one in two independent restaurants says they will have to close, and most businesses with more than one location think they will be forced to close at least one of them. 

 

 

 

 

 

https://montreal.ctv...urvey-1.4908304


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 23 April 2020 - 05:14 AM.


#20 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 05:25 AM

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business, representing 110,000 members, said this week that rent relief is “urgently needed.” More than half (58%) of small businesses surveyed by the group said they won’t be able to pay May’s rent without some kind of assistance, and many fear they might be forced to close permanently.

 

 

Laura Jones, executive vice-president of the federation, said deferring rent “isn’t going to cut it,” arguing businesses desperately need rent forgiveness to help pay bills.

 

The federal government announced a program last week to support rent for commercial enterprises, and businesses are eager to learn the details, she said. Bills are mounting for businesses and revenue isn’t coming in.

The federation is urging that rental support costs be shared by governments, landlords and tenants.

 

“April 1 was scary and it’s important to get the right government relief in place fast to prevent May 1 from being a nightmare on Main Street,” Jones said.

 

The survey was based on 6,881 responses received online between April 17 to 19. No margin of error is assigned to online polls.

 

https://www.timescol...ures-1.24122719


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 23 April 2020 - 05:25 AM.


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