2860 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

Now I see some newspaper articles are “made possible by Facebook” and their funding. interesting times.

[JimV]

OK, with a week to go who’s willing to venture a prediction about the outcome in Victoria?  My guess:

 

1. NDP - Victorians never learn from experience 

2. Libs - Oceannikki is drifting out to sea along with JT

3. Grn - hope springs eternal, but no

4. PPC - too much reality in the platform

5. Con - Hannah who?

6. Ben Issit - one write-in ballot, his own

[spanky123]

OK, with a week to go who’s willing to venture a prediction about the outcome in Victoria?  My guess:

 

1. NDP - Victorians never learn from experience 

2. Libs - Oceannikki is drifting out to sea along with JT

3. Grn - hope springs eternal, but no

4. PPC - too much reality in the platform

5. Con - Hannah who?

6. Ben Issit - one write-in ballot, his own

 

 

NDP. Many supporters I know feel that the Cons will get the popular vote and highest seat count (as the Libs did in BC) but an NDP/Liberal alliance will form the Government.  The seat in Victoria is critical to them then.

[JimV]

I think whoever gets the most seats will form the government.  You may recall that when Stephane Dion was Liberal leader this idea of forming an alliance with the NDP was met with public outrage and dropped.  Singh has never ruled out the possibility of supporting the Conservatives.  I think he would rather do that than face the music of propping up an increasingly unpopular Liberal party, especially after tearing a strip off them every chance he gets.  

[LJ]

If the cons win the most seats they will form government and not need to partner with anyone. All the leaders except JT say they would not cause another early election so you are good to go.

[FogPub]

OK, with a week to go who’s willing to venture a prediction about the outcome in Victoria?  My guess:

 

1. NDP - Victorians never learn from experience 

2. Libs - Oceannikki is drifting out to sea along with JT

3. Grn - hope springs eternal, but no

4. PPC - too much reality in the platform

5. Con - Hannah who?

6. Ben Issit - one write-in ballot, his own

You forgot Reichert, who'll come 6th (pushing Isitt to 7th) with the same 30-or-so votes he gets every time he runs for anything.

 

As for the prediction, despite the party's best attempts at self-destruction I think the Greens will still finish 2nd in Victoria, pushing the Libs to (a stronger-than-before) 3rd.  And the Cons could run a stuffed walrus as their candidate and still beat the PPC in the battle of the also-rans.

Edited by FogPub, 11 September 2021 - 11:19 PM.

[JimV]

If the cons win the most seats they will form government and not need to partner with anyone. All the leaders except JT say they would not cause another early election so you are good to go.

Well, it wouldn’t be a formal partnership but they would need the ongoing support of one or more other parties.  That would be interesting, if not particularly productive.  Despite his protestations Singh had no problem with Trudeau spending vast sums of borrowed funny money.  Singh just wants to spend more, and faster.  It would likely be a more strained relationship with O’Toole, even though the jolly leprechaun is pretty much a Liberal in everything but name.

[rjag]

Canadian Tories' 'hostile China blueprint' caters to toxic atmosphere against Beijing amid sour ties - Global Times

 

This tells you who China doesnt want at the table....how telling is that?

[JimV]

You forgot Reichert, who'll come 6th (pushing Isitt to 7th) with the same 30-or-so votes he gets every time he runs for anything.

 

As for the prediction, despite the party's best attempts at self-destruction I think the Greens will still finish 2nd in Victoria, pushing the Libs to (a stronger-than-before) 3rd.  And the Cons could run a stuffed walrus as their candidate and still beat the PPC in the battle of the also-rans.

Ah yes, thanks for reminding me of Reichert.  Still, in accordance with the mood for change, he might make a breakthrough and garner 35 votes.

As usual, party loyalty will determine the outcome (otherwise we wouldn’t have Collins and Lore as representatives.) I’m not sure how much Con loyalty there is around around here, especially with an invisible candidate.  HH’s complete lack of presence suggests to me that they have no money, no volunteers and (needless to say) no hope.  There might be room for the PPC candidate to slip ahead in the also ran race.  At least he has a few signs here and there.

 

The Green/Liberal contest is a tricky one to calculate.  Ordinarily the Greens would have the edge.  But I wonder if Oceanikki’s barrage of ads and signs might motivate enough Liberals panicked by the fear of Sunshine Boy’s defeat to kick her up to second.  Plus, of course, she is actually a credible candidate, unlike the unknown young party functionary representing the Greens.

 

All of this would be a lot more fun if the election wasn’t already over by the time we turned on our TVs.

[Mike K.]

It was a very close race between the NDP and the Greens in 2019.

Macdonald is running for the second time, which may boost her results.

[spanky123]

If the cons win the most seats they will form government and not need to partner with anyone. All the leaders except JT say they would not cause another early election so you are good to go.

 

We also had fixed election dates in BC!

[spanky123]

I think whoever gets the most seats will form the government.  You may recall that when Stephane Dion was Liberal leader this idea of forming an alliance with the NDP was met with public outrage and dropped.  Singh has never ruled out the possibility of supporting the Conservatives.  I think he would rather do that than face the music of propping up an increasingly unpopular Liberal party, especially after tearing a strip off them every chance he gets.  

 

The NDP will back the Liberals as Singh has a better chance of being kingmaker and having his issues moved to the forefront. He won't be viewed as propping up the Liberals as much as he will be viewed as the defacto leader amoungst his tribe.

[spanky123]

 It would likely be a more strained relationship with O’Toole, even though the jolly leprechaun is pretty much a Liberal in everything but name.

 

Bottom line is that all leaders are playing to the 10% who are undecided and largely in the middle. It will be after the election that we start to see policies more closely aligned with party principles. 

 

Lets face it, it has only been two years since the last election but how much attention has been placed on the promises that Trudeau made and never followed through with? It will be even worse after four years which is why they all promise cake. 

[Mike K.]

To be fair, whatever promises were made in the 2019 election went out the window due to COVID.

I think the Liberals just want to free themselves of the untenable situation of having to rely on the NDP.

[JimV]

The NDP will back the Liberals as Singh has a better chance of being kingmaker and having his issues moved to the forefront. He won't be viewed as propping up the Liberals as much as he will be viewed as the defacto leader amoungst his tribe.

You may be right, but I think that if the Cons win the most seats but are short of a majority Singh will support O’Toole as PM.  There are several reasons:

 

1.  It’s a long established parliamentary convention.

2.  In practical terms he could probably extract just as many concessions from the Cons as the Libs.

3.  There seems to be a widespread anger and frustration in the country.  Some of it is focused on specific issues - housing, jobs, financial management, Covid restrictions, etc.  Some is just a general discontent.  Whatever, I think people are going to take it out on Trudeau.  If he doesn’t win the most seats but remains PM with NDP help that anger is going to be transferred to Singh.  Not good for his long term prospects.

4.  I don’t think his tribal credentials would be damaged by supporting the Cons for a while.  It’s an easy case to make.  “Canadians have spoken, they want a change, we will be guarding your interests, blah, blah.”

 

Just my opinion, but I’d bet money on it.  Of course it’s a moot point if the Libs win the most seats or in the unlikely event that the Cons get close enough that they could get support from the Bloc.  Politics makes strange bedfellows.

[JimV]

To be fair, whatever promises were made in the 2019 election went out the window due to COVID.

I think the Liberals just want to free themselves of the untenable situation of having to rely on the NDP.

True enough re the promises, though to be honest, I don’t even remember what the promises were.

 

The situation in Parliament was hardly untenable.  The NDP supported everything the Liberals did.  Which is why most people view the election as a self seeking power grab attempt.  One could argue that we had the same situation in BC.  The difference is that Horgan was/is very popular and voters were happy to hand him the keys.  This is not true of the federal scene.  In the best case scenario the Liberals will cling to a minority with fewer seats than they hold now.  The only good thing to come out of that is that Trudeau might decide to take a walk in the snow and become the new host of Jeopardy.

[Nparker]

I will not hazard a guess as to who will win the election on September 20^th, but I can say with absolute certainty who will lose: the middle-class taxpayer.

[Mike K.]

True enough re the promises, though to be honest, I don’t even remember what the promises were.

The situation in Parliament was hardly untenable. The NDP supported everything the Liberals did. Which is why most people view the election as a self seeking power grab attempt. One could argue that we had the same situation in BC. The difference is that Horgan was/is very popular and voters were happy to hand him the keys. This is not true of the federal scene. In the best case scenario the Liberals will cling to a minority with fewer seats than they hold now. The only good thing to come out of that is that Trudeau might decide to take a walk in the snow and become the new host of Jeopardy.

True, but the way I look at it is the Liberals only proposed what Singh would back.

Much like what Horgan did with the Greens, they now have to reject the kingmaker via an election otherwise they'll never be able to pursue their own agenda but one that will find support from Singh. And if they keep doing that, they'll begin to erode the differentiation between the parties (some would say that erosion has already started with the Cons seizing the opportunity to appeal to the centrists Trudeau has left bewildered).

[Victoria Watcher]

some of us are not sure the conservatives had to move left though. it’s always drifting that way it seems.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 September 2021 - 02:12 PM.

[JimV]

True, but the way I look at it is the Liberals only proposed what Singh would back.

Much like what Horgan did with the Greens, they now have to reject the kingmaker via an election otherwise they'll never be able to pursue their own agenda but one that will find support from Singh. And if they keep doing that, they'll begin to erode the differentiation between the parties (some would say that erosion has already started with the Cons seizing the opportunity to appeal to the centrists Trudeau has left bewildered).

I don’t see much daylight these days between the Libs and NDP, so their agenda would not be much different.  Just easier to implement.  With a majority the Libs could safely ignore some of Singh’s more absurd ideas but their own aren’t much better.  In any case, it’s pretty obvious now that going for the brass ring was a major miscalculation.