707 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

Carney says will never be for sale.

[Mike K.]

Vows to step up military spending.

Trump also says “never say never” to Carney’s point.

[max.bravo]

Trump is a BOLD man. To say “never say never” to our PM with a smile on his face. Wow

[Mike K.]

Man.

That wasn’t good for us, that event.

[Mike K.]

The CBC anchor laughed as soon as the feed cut. Nervous laugh?

[Mike K.]

I have to assume the BoC will be cutting rates next month.

[max.bravo]

But instead of buyers remorse, the people who voted carney to power will see his performance as masterful.

We just got raked over the coals publicly. That was humiliating to watch.

[Mike K.]

I assumed Carney was going to announce Canadian investments in American nuclear energy or Canada committing to export more oil via the United States’ ‘Gulf of America’ infrastructure and pipeline investments. Everyone benefits that way.

Isn’t that how you build strategic partnerships, with a nation that’s asking the entire world to invest -in- the US? We brought nothing.

[max.bravo]

He did bring a bit of masterful boot licking

[Barrister]

It may be time to start seriously negotiating with the Chinese. I cant see any of the American car companies adding further investment in Canada. At best it will be a slow death of Canadian car manufacturing. We might as well bite the bullit and let the Chinese into the Canadian car market.

[max.bravo]

I’d much rather deal with USA on almost anything, vs China.
They are shady and their good are unreliable. As much as the most ardent leftist hates Trump, America is a much better ally than China. On human rights. On transparency. On proximity. On trade deals. Etc.

We already have Chinese influence clandestinely creeping into our real estate, politicians; and military. That’s enough for me.

[Victoria Watcher]

Hong Kong police take in relatives of wanted activist Joe Tay for questioning

 

 

Former TVB actor Joe Tay, now based in Canada, is one of six overseas activists whom Hong Kong police issued national security arrest warrants in December. He left the city in June 2020.

 

https://hongkongfp.c...or-questioning/

 

 

Tay ran in the Canadian legislative elections last month as a member of the country’s Conservative Party. He emerged second in his district out of six candidates.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 May 2025 - 09:24 PM.

[Mike K.]

The world is recognizing now that Canada may have been led down the path we saw, by the Americans.

Have a quick look at this montage: https://x.com/themad...LNt72cvXf0yWpgg

What do we do now?

[dasmo]

The world is recognizing now that Canada may have been led down the path we saw, by the Americans.

Have a quick look at this montage: https://x.com/themad...LNt72cvXf0yWpgg

What do we do now?

Nothing. Same as always. 

[Mike K.]

Whatever happened to elbows up? The PM just sat there. He said on the campaign trail you have to be tough with Trump.

[dasmo]

Umm. They lie. It’s what they do.

[dasmo]

I’m sure a Facebook profile graphic should do the trick!

[LJ]

The world is recognizing now that Canada may have been led down the path we saw, by the Americans.

Have a quick look at this montage: https://x.com/themad...LNt72cvXf0yWpgg

What do we do now?

Ottawa—Tiff Macklem stood at the podium in Ottawa today and did what central bankers do best—wrapped deep, systemic panic in the calmest language possible. But if you listened closely, beyond the jargon, what you heard was unmistakable: the wheels are coming off.

The Bank of Canada wants you to believe everything is under control. That our banks are resilient, our households are stress-tested, and our financial system is sound. But here’s what they won’t say out loud—Canada is dangerously exposed, and the people in charge have no real plan for what happens if this trade war doesn’t end.

Let’s be honest. This isn’t about unpredictable U.S. policy or global volatility. It’s about decades of short-sighted political leadership that left this country utterly dependent on foreign demand and leveraged to the hilt. It’s about the Trudeau-era economic doctrine—enabled by the NDP, now carried on by Mark Carney—that told Canadians we could borrow endlessly, tax productivity, and offshore our economic foundations in exchange for climate virtue signals and gender budgets.

And now, the math is finally catching up.

Households are stretched. The Bank admitted that credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising fast—especially among the Canadians who didn’t even qualify for a mortgage. That’s the underclass the Trudeau economy created. They’re not homeowners, they’re not investors, they’re renters with debt and no safety net. And now, they’re the first to crack.

Even mortgage holders—who were stress-tested at artificially inflated rates—are walking into renewal shocks. Macklem tries to sound reassuring, but when he says “they’ll be okay for a year,” what he means is: we’ve bought some time, nothing more. And time is running out. About 60% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages—millions of households—are set to renew in 2025 or 2026. Most of those were taken out at rock-bottom pandemic rates. Even with interest rates easing, the majority will still face higher payments, squeezing budgets already hit by inflation, taxes, and stagnant real wages.

And here’s the best part—they’re now the biggest players in Canadian government debt. Hedge funds, particularly foreign-based ones, have rapidly overtaken traditional bank-owned dealers in the Government of Canada (GoC) bond market. According to the Bank of Canada, hedge funds now purchase nearly 50% of auction volume in some bond maturities and account for about 30% of secondary market trading in GoC bonds.

This shift has been driven by a surge in leveraged trading strategies, such as the cash-futures basis trade, where funds borrow at low cost (often through short-term repo agreements with bank dealers) and arbitrage small differences between bond and futures prices. These strategies add liquidity in calm markets but rely heavily on continuous access to short-term funding. About 70% of hedge fund repo leverage has a maturity of less than one week, making them highly sensitive to volatility and funding conditions.

The problem? This growing dependence on hedge fund participation has stretched the traditional shock absorbers of Canada’s debt markets. Unlike banks, hedge funds are not obligated to participate in debt auctions, nor are they subject to the same capital or liquidity regulations. If volatility spikes—due to trade disruptions, inflation surprises, or geopolitical shocks—hedge funds can exit instantly, dumping GoC bonds to cover losses or margin calls elsewhere.

We’ve already seen a preview. In April, following a wave of U.S. tariffs, U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, and equities all fell together, an unusual pattern that the Bank of Canada linked to leveraged position unwinds by hedge funds. A similar move in Canada would mean bond prices falling, yields spiking, and Ottawa suddenly facing much higher borrowing costs.

So what happens when these hedge funds decide Canada isn’t worth the risk? When they pull leverage, dump their bonds, and shift capital to more stable or higher-yielding jurisdictions? The answer is simple: Canada’s ability to fund its debt at low rates evaporates. Liquidity vanishes. Prices collapse. And the federal government is left relying on central bank intervention to stabilize markets.

This isn’t a theoretical concern—it’s a structural vulnerability, one built into the very foundation of Ottawa’s pandemic-era spending boom and the unchecked expansion of shadow banking in Canada.

As for the banks? Sure, they’re better capitalized than they were in 2008. But they’re also neck-deep in exposure to leveraged hedge funds, foreign debt markets, and repo operations with counterparties no one regulates. Macklem calls them “non-bank financial intermediaries.” Translation: unregulated money machines that can take down entire markets overnight.

And here’s the best part—they’re now the biggest players in Canadian government debt. The same hedge funds that caused the repo panic in 2019, that nearly broke the Treasury market in April, are now propping up Ottawa’s debt auctions. So what happens when they decide Canada isn’t worth the risk? When they pull their leverage, dump their bonds, and move to safer jurisdictions?

What happens is a funding crisis. A liquidity freeze. And if that hits, the Bank of Canada knows exactly what it will have to do—print, intervene, and bail out. Again.

You saw hints of that today. Macklem saying the Bank “might need to step in” if market dysfunction appears. That’s not a forecast. That’s a warning.

This is what happens when you build a financial system on cheap debt, speculative capital, and blind trust in globalism. This is what happens when you hand your economy over to unelected bureaucrats, international bankers, and hedge funds.

And now that it’s starting to unwind, the people who caused it want you to stay calm, keep spending, and above all—keep quiet.

Don’t.

[splashflash]

I'll be listening to Michael Campbell's Moneytalks today, for sure. Reduce Canadian market exposure and buy foreign treasuries?

Edited by splashflash, 10 May 2025 - 03:46 PM.

[Mike K.]

I would wait until the June rate adjustment to get a better sense of what the Bank actually intends to do, as opposed to what they say.

To stimulate the economy they’ll have to drop rates significantly, but also to hedge against a potential bond sell off that I think would lead to raising interest rates at banks, negating BoC cuts. Am I understanding that right?