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Is there a housing bubble right now in Victoria?


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Poll: Is there a housing bubble in Victoria? (1 member(s) have cast votes)

Is there a housing bubble in Victoria?

  1. Yes. (128 votes [58.99%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 58.99%

  2. No. (60 votes [27.65%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 27.65%

  3. Maybe. (29 votes [13.36%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 13.36%

Vote

#2281 dasmo

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 10:29 AM

Yes, dropping to the extreme long term average of 6-5% made buying a SFH cheaper than renting a town house, That is what started it... What fueled it was the continued drops, 0% down, longer amortization, cash back etc.
The other interesting pattern to note is that the next hump will be twice as big as this one, whenever it is...

#2282 pherthyl

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 10:52 AM

Yes, dropping to the extreme long term average of 6-5% made buying a SFH cheaper than renting a town house, That is what started it... What fueled it was the continued drops, 0% down, longer amortization, cash back etc.
The other interesting pattern to note is that the next hump will be twice as big as this one, whenever it is...


Well I can't discount the possibility that we are the next Vancouver, and the next real estate boom will bring SFHs to 1.2 million. However I just don't see the drivers for that.

In any case, I have 3-5 years to do more research and come to a conclusion about that :)

#2283 true blue oak

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 08:48 AM

Is it possible to get the poll results at the top reset so that we can get opinions of people from today, not an aggregate of a few years as the market has changed quite significantly since this thread started .

#2284 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 10:13 AM

Is it possible to get the poll results at the top reset so that we can get opinions of people from today, not an aggregate of a few years as the market has changed quite significantly since this thread started .


...that's above the powers of us mere admins, we'll look when Mike or Dylan are back in town.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#2285 true blue oak

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 10:37 AM

...that's above the powers of us mere admins, we'll look when Mike or Dylan are back in town.


Thanks a lot - I think the results would be interesting in terms of sentiment as compared to before. Maybe will be the same - who knows? But, if we do a new survey, we will have a better idea.

#2286 D.L.

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 11:21 AM

You could... start a new thread!

Then I ]'ll close this one.

#2287 pherthyl

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 11:38 AM

You could... start a new thread!

Then I ]'ll close this one.


I think "is there a housing bubble in Victoria" is too black and white anyway. A better poll would be "Is housing overvalued in Victoria?"

Yes - 30% or more overvalued
Yes - About 20% overvalued
Yes - About 10% overvalued
No - Fairly valued
No - 10% undervalued
No - 20% undervalued
No - 30% or more undervalued.

Or, more concretely. Will housing values drop in Victoria? with the same options "Yes, by 30% or more", etc.

#2288 true blue oak

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 12:14 PM

I think "is there a housing bubble in Victoria" is too black and white anyway. A better poll would be "Is housing overvalued in Victoria?"

Yes - 30% or more overvalued
Yes - About 20% overvalued
Yes - About 10% overvalued
No - Fairly valued
No - 10% undervalued
No - 20% undervalued
No - 30% or more undervalued.

Or, more concretely. Will housing values drop in Victoria? with the same options "Yes, by 30% or more", etc.


Can we do that - start a new thread with a poll?

#2289 dasmo

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 12:59 PM

Whichever way this goes I think there is value to the history of this thread. I vote to keep it.

#2290 true blue oak

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 01:10 PM

Whichever way this goes I think there is value to the history of this thread. I vote to keep it.


Keep it an start a new one sounds good to me.

#2291 true blue oak

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 01:27 PM

pherthyl - would you like to start the new one with your poll suggestion?

#2292 mysage

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 04:13 PM

Can we do that - start a new thread with a poll?


I agree.Let's start a new poll but please be careful with the wording of the questions. As an example one could easily misconstrue the question of whether the market is over priced by a certain % or not. Overpriced to whom and over priced compared to what other market (ie Toronto, Smithers, Hong Kong etc?

Wording is everything in polls.

#2293 pherthyl

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 04:32 PM

I agree.Let's start a new poll but please be careful with the wording of the questions. As an example one could easily misconstrue the question of whether the market is over priced by a certain % or not. Overpriced to whom and over priced compared to what other market (ie Toronto, Smithers, Hong Kong etc?

Wording is everything in polls.


Yeah that's why I was thinking that turning it into a prediction would be clearer. One person might think that the market is highly overvalued because of price/rent ratios while another might think its undervalued based on our mild climate.

Better to turn it into a question of where people see the market going, and to what degree they expect a change in prices.

Or what do you suggest?

Not that it matters much. After 5 years we have, what, a few dozen responses to this poll?

#2294 true blue oak

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 04:49 PM

I think there is around 200 votes on the poll as above.

How about something like a prediction where the median price will go in the next yr or 2 yrs with a number of options like $520K-$549K, $500K-520K, $480K-$500K, etc

#2295 gumgum

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 06:28 PM

And make sure you remind people what the median is now.

#2296 gumgum

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 06:30 PM

Btw this thread will likely be locked, but it will still be available to read.

#2297 phx

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 08:26 PM

It's interesting that househuntvictoria voted "no" in this poll.

#2298 pherthyl

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 08:44 PM

And skeptic voted yes?? What the hell did we spend 30 pages arguing about again?? :)

#2299 D.L.

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 10:14 PM

omg lol!

#2300 Bingo

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Posted 27 September 2012 - 05:47 AM

Is this what the chatter is about?

"Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often conclusively identified only in retrospect, when a sudden drop in prices appears. Such a drop is known as a crash or a bubble burst. Both the boom and the burst phases of the bubble are examples of a positive feedback mechanism, in contrast to the negative feedback mechanism that determines the equilibrium price under normal market circumstances. Prices in an economic bubble can fluctuate erratically, and become impossible to predict from supply and demand alone."

Economic bubble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

or this...

10 Most Bizarre Economic Bubbles in History | Business Pundit

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