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Electric and autonomous cars


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#1 dasmo

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Posted 27 December 2015 - 02:12 PM

Autonomous driving tech: Just two years away?

"We're going to end up with complete autonomy," Musk recently told Fortune during his commute to SpaceX headquarters, "and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."

http://www.fool.com/...ampaign=article



#2 LeoVictoria

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 01:34 PM

Our current car will be the last one we ever own.  In 5 years autonomous cars will be commonplace, which will remove all incentive to own one.   Want a car?  Just connect your smartphone calendar to the next gen Uber service and an autonomous car will come by to pick you up at the right time.   



#3 rjag

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 03:37 PM

Our current car will be the last one we ever own.  In 5 years autonomous cars will be commonplace, which will remove all incentive to own one.   Want a car?  Just connect your smartphone calendar to the next gen Uber service and an autonomous car will come by to pick you up at the right time.   

 

5 years? Highly doubtful....50 years perhaps...if anything the autonomous vehicle is already here in EU ...its called the train



#4 LeoVictoria

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 04:57 PM

5 years? Highly doubtful....50 years perhaps...if anything the autonomous vehicle is already here in EU ...its called the train

 

Google has autonomous cars driving around successfully right now.  Way over a million miles already.   Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, Acura, they can all drive near-autonomously on the highway right now.    Tesla just said they think they are 2 years away from full autonomy.   

What would take another 50 years?  

 

As for the train... I don't have tracks from my house to Costco.  Not very useful.


Edited by LeoVictoria, 28 December 2015 - 04:57 PM.


#5 Mike K.

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 05:04 PM

Fully autonomous vehicles will require major policy changes, too. So while we may have fully autonomous vehicles available for purchase by 2020 they may be illegal to operate on public roads for a very long time to come.


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#6 rjag

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 08:38 PM

Google has autonomous cars driving around successfully right now.  Way over a million miles already.   Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, Acura, they can all drive near-autonomously on the highway right now.    Tesla just said they think they are 2 years away from full autonomy.   

What would take another 50 years?  

 

As for the train... I don't have tracks from my house to Costco.  Not very useful.

 

You indicated that in 5 years they will be commonplace....I highly doubt that. You do realise that they require regulatory buy-in from government as well as the insurance industry....not to forget buy-in from joe public. Based on prior technological innovations such as the EV.....they have been around for a decade and are barely a rounding error for ownership....less than .25% of annual vehicle purchases are EV's with 50% of them being purchased by government.....

 

Like I said I highly doubt your claim of 5 years.

 

What I do see if autonomous cars are approved will be most likely in the public transit world such as buses with set routes and eventually taxis...heck if we could automate hospital gurneys and grocery store shopping carts it would be huge!!!



#7 LJ

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 08:48 PM

LeoVictoria, on 28 Dec 2015 - 1:34 PM, said:

Our current car will be the last one we ever own.  In 5 years autonomous cars will be commonplace, which will remove all incentive to own one.   Want a car?  Just connect your smartphone calendar to the next gen Uber service and an autonomous car will come by to pick you up at the right time.   

I hope you have a very reliable and easily rebuilt car then.


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#8 dasmo

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 09:39 PM

It will happen fast not because it's good or anything but because it's about money.... Insurance companies will profit from it and thus support it. Vehicle manufacturers are all in this game ( a pretty strong lobby if they are all on board). Commercial vehicles will pave the way. It is a way less expensive way to reduce congestion and pollution than LRT's. If no organization in power is against this then there is every reason to expect a fast track to implement regulations to allow these on the road. 

 

 

The threat urban congestion poses to the auto industry is becoming clearer as big cities in China, the world’s largest vehicle market, have begun limiting new car registrations.

“We want to be the very best car and truck company we can, and we are focusing on that. But it’s also a recognition that the world we are living in is changing. One of the problems is urban congestion,” Mr. Ford said. “I believe that any company only exists to make people’s lives better and to solve problems.”

To that end, Ford will push into more use of autonomous and semi-autonomous driving, and explore car-sharing programs that could ease congestion.

http://blogs.wsj.com...rking-together/


Edited by dasmo, 28 December 2015 - 09:41 PM.


#9 sebberry

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 10:07 PM

Insurance companies will profit from it and thus support it.

 

It'll be pretty hard to assess a crash risk for cars that supposedly won't be crashing. 

 

The injury payouts might be low, but so will the premium revenue.


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#10 dasmo

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 10:14 PM

It'll be pretty hard to assess a crash risk for cars that supposedly won't be crashing. 

 

The injury payouts might be low, but so will the premium revenue.

Revenue is less important than profit.... Remember insurance is mandatory.


Edited by dasmo, 28 December 2015 - 10:23 PM.


#11 sebberry

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 10:27 PM

Remember insurance is mandatory.

 

Is it?  Insurance against what?  Crashing?  Wait...


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#12 dasmo

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 10:38 PM

Is it?  Insurance against what?  Crashing?  Wait...

It is and exactly... 



#13 sebberry

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 10:59 PM

It is and exactly... 

 

Wait.. so... the only advantage to an autonomous car is that it won't crash, but I have to continue to pay to insure it against crashes? 


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#14 Rob Randall

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 11:05 PM

Wait.. so... the only advantage to an autonomous car is that it won't crash, but I have to continue to pay to insure it against crashes?


It's the CRD water formula: the less you use it the more you pay for it.
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#15 dasmo

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Posted 28 December 2015 - 11:58 PM

Wait.. so... the only advantage to an autonomous car is that it won't crash, but I have to continue to pay to insure it against crashes? 

That's not the only advantage. And yes, insurance is mostly a scam. that won't change.



#16 LeoVictoria

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Posted 29 December 2015 - 08:37 AM

You indicated that in 5 years they will be commonplace....I highly doubt that. You do realise that they require regulatory buy-in from government as well as the insurance industry....not to forget buy-in from joe public. Based on prior technological innovations such as the EV.....they have been around for a decade and are barely a rounding error for ownership....less than .25% of annual vehicle purchases are EV's with 50% of them being purchased by government.....

 

Government probably won't be able to drag their feet very long, except if certain industries lobby against it (truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc).   Insurance industry will jump on it.  Joe public as well.

It has nothing to do with EVs.   EVs don't really change anything.  Autonomous cars change everything (and put millions of people out of work).



#17 rjag

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Posted 29 December 2015 - 11:01 AM

Government probably won't be able to drag their feet very long, except if certain industries lobby against it (truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc).   Insurance industry will jump on it.  Joe public as well.

It has nothing to do with EVs.   EVs don't really change anything.  Autonomous cars change everything (and put millions of people out of work).

 

I'm sure the Apple generation will embrace this and as usual the law of unintended consequences will rear its ugly head. The original discussion was on an EV thread therefore reference to EV's....Somehow the more I think about it the more I think the niche for these will not be mainstream but industrial applications in large enclosed industrial parks such as container ports etc



#18 Mike K.

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Posted 29 December 2015 - 02:09 PM

I'd also wager that the vast majority of drivers like/have fun driving. Giving up the pleasure of driving to a computer will absolutely suck and most won't want a vehicle that absolves them of the driving experience.

 

There are those who will want to be a vehicle that is autonomous but they will be few and far between, at least for the foreseeable future.


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#19 LeoVictoria

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Posted 29 December 2015 - 02:23 PM

Somehow the more I think about it the more I think the niche for these will not be mainstream but industrial applications in large enclosed industrial parks such as container ports etc


That's already done. Big trucks in mines are already autonomous. Next step is the uncontrolled road for long distance trucking, then the general public.

#20 North Shore

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Posted 29 December 2015 - 02:26 PM

I wonder, though, Mike...apparently ' the millennials' are eschewing cars altogether (perhaps their beards wont fit through the doors!) and are also huge on technology...perhaps theyll be all over a vehicle with a computer interface, leaving them with more time to texturbate with their Youfacetwit 'friends'.
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