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The Victoria Economy Thread


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#21 mat

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:13 PM

reading this and I despair at the elected in charge of BC's economy - to only consider acting 2 1/2 weeks ago implies complete denial or understanding of the proceeding 6 weeks (Lehman and others), this summer (Bear Stearns), or the warnings from 2 years ago. The banking failures are timing examples.

Victoria (CRD) will get hit - in the near term in project stalls, hiring freezes and reduced consumer spend. The long term...anyones guess.

FINANCE MINISTER: ON THE MAKING OF CAMPBELL’S ECONOMIC PLAN
Oct 23, 2008
BC'S FINANCE MINSTER SAYS PREMIER CAMPBELL'S 10-POINT ECONOMIC PLAN WAS LESS THAN THREE WEEKS IN THE MAKING.

BUT, COLIN HANSEN TOLD CFAX 1070'S NEWSLINE PM THEY WERE A VERY BUSY THREE WEEKS, WITH VERY LITTLE SLEEP.

"WE STARTED THIS PROCESS ABOUT TWO-AND-A-HALF WEEKS AGO WHEN WE REALIZED THAT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION WAS REALLY CHANGING," SAYS HANSEN.

HE SAYS HE WOULD HAVE LIKED MORE TIME, BUT THE PRODUCT IS A GOOD ONE, "WELL, I THINK EVERYBODY WISHES AT TIMES LIKE THIS THAT THERE WAS MORE TIME. BUT I THINK WE DID IT WITH THE PROPER DUE-DILIGENCE."

CAMPBELL ANNOUNCED THE PLAN IN AN ADDRESS TO THE PROVINCE LAST NIGHT.
- RYAN PRICE

CFAX

#22 http

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Posted 23 October 2008 - 10:23 PM

- snip -
BUT, COLIN HANSEN TOLD CFAX 1070'S NEWSLINE PM THEY WERE A VERY BUSY THREE WEEKS, WITH VERY LITTLE SLEEP.

"WE STARTED THIS PROCESS ABOUT TWO-AND-A-HALF WEEKS AGO WHEN WE REALIZED THAT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION WAS REALLY CHANGING," SAYS HANSEN.


So we've got a plan for our economy cooked up by sleep deprived fools. Sleep deprivation and sleep disruption KILLS proper mental functioning and decision making ability.

I can't think of an appropriate insult that would not elicit the "My children read this, tone it down!" response.
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#23 spanky123

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Posted 24 October 2008 - 05:49 AM

The reason why we have half-baked policy decisions being made in two weeks is that the Government is in a huge panic.

For the past fews years we have been drunk from oil and gas royalties flowing into the treasury. The cost cutting and fiscal responsibility introduced when the Liberals gained office in 2001 was overshadowed by the new, nicer Gordon.

As I write this oil has dropped below $60 a barrel and natural gas hovers around $6. Our "petrol economy" is going to evaporate at these levels as very few projects in Canada are viable. BC Government coffers are then going to empty fast and we are going to see a deficit in BC very quickly.

What upsets me the most is the story out of Washington that executives in Fitch, S&P and other rating services knew very well that their ratings were being influenced by investment money. One email stated words to the effect that "we would rate a cow if they paid us for it". Isn't this exactly the same crap that led to the Enron debacle with accounting firms? So all that happens is we have a few hearings, toss a couple of losers into jail and then start the whole farce over again with a new set of businesses.

The people who got us into this mess were paid tens of million of dollars a year, the ones in Government trying to get us out work for a couple hundred thousand. Not even a close call.

#24 Szeven

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Posted 24 October 2008 - 06:54 AM


The people who got us into this mess were paid tens of million of dollars a year, the ones in Government trying to get us out work for a couple hundred thousand. Not even a close call.


I dont understand this logic.

The people who got us into this mess is the lay man who takes no responsibility for his actions. The guy who puts 0 down on a house while stated his income higher than his walmart salary. The guy who gives his money to hedge funds that are over leveraged and blow out. The guy who racks up his credit card debt knowing he cant pay, and every other person who lives above their means in this 'want want want' western world. The people who were paid tens of millions of dollars just happened to be the people that made their way to the top of this pyramid. They are no different than the people at the bottom in terms of thought process.

"Get rich quick" "Want to be a star" "Buy now pay later"

What else could be the end result?

#25 G-Man

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Posted 24 October 2008 - 06:58 AM

^ Exactly. The consumer always seems to get a free pass. Buying big screens on credit is truly the start of this problem. And the thing is people still think that they are all entitled to that big screen. I am glad I stayed with my tube tv.

#26 spanky123

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Posted 24 October 2008 - 07:06 AM

I dont understand this logic.

The people who got us into this mess is the lay man who takes no responsibility for his actions. The guy who puts 0 down on a house while stated his income higher than his walmart salary. The guy who gives his money to hedge funds that are over leveraged and blow out. The guy who racks up his credit card debt knowing he cant pay, and every other person who lives above their means in this 'want want want' western world. The people who were paid tens of millions of dollars just happened to be the people that made their way to the top of this pyramid. They are no different than the people at the bottom in terms of thought process.

"Get rich quick" "Want to be a star" "Buy now pay later"

What else could be the end result?


No doubt that people overextending themselves started the problem. It could have been stopped years ago however if the bond rating services and regulators had stepped in and did their jobs.

Everyone was making money so nobody wanted to stop the ride.

#27 maniac78

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 07:39 AM

I'm sure over the coming years there will be witch hunts all over the place and public hangings in every square. It will without a doubt just cause more damage.

#28 Ms. B. Havin

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 08:25 PM

I really wish one of the mods would pretty-please fix the title of this thread. Every time I see it, I feel dread...

<chirp>

For those who haven't noticed, it should be "whither," not "wither." I don't want to see the continued invitation to "wither the victoria economy"... Things are bad enough without incantations.

wither wither shrink and shrivel, soon all ur base will be like drivel...
When you buy a game, you buy the rules. Play happens in the space between the rules.

#29 gumgum

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 08:32 PM

Can't we just call it "Victoria economy" or something?
Why does everything I read these days have to signal such gloom?

#30 mat

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 08:42 PM

I really wish one of the mods would pretty-please fix the title of this thread. Every time I see it, I feel dread...

<chirp>

For those who haven't noticed, it should be "whither," not "wither." I don't want to see the continued invitation to "wither the victoria economy"... Things are bad enough without incantations.

wither wither shrink and shrivel, soon all ur base will be like drivel...


good point - noticed it. Not sure us 'mods' can change the title of a thread. I will pass it on...just had a vision of the witches in Macbeth.

#31 Ms. B. Havin

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 09:49 PM

Ah, the thread title is fixed, thanks!

Just for the record, I wasn't the first or only person to notice it. See:

Wither (sic) indeed!


From p.1, Sept. :)
When you buy a game, you buy the rules. Play happens in the space between the rules.

#32 mat

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 09:53 PM

Bernard started this thread - and apologies for abruptly changing his title. Some members had a problem with 'wither' vs 'whither'.

Vocabulary, as well as format (bold, underline, emoticons:confused:), plays a key role in the understanding of any online communication. Hence a warning - the VV language police are out there....;)

#33 Caramia

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 10:14 PM

OMG I always thought that was on purpose.

Incantations indeed.
If you ever want to stand at a street corner and chant happy words at the economy, I'm with you Ms B.
Nowadays most people die of a sort of creeping common sense, and discover when it is too late that the only things one never regrets are one's mistakes.
Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), The Picture of Dorian Gray, 1891

#34 Ms. B. Havin

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Posted 28 October 2008 - 12:51 PM

OMG I always thought that was on purpose.


Hmm, Bernard as the Dark Lord?

...Nah... Can't be.

Incantations indeed.
If you ever want to stand at a street corner and chant happy words at the economy, I'm with you Ms B.


It might yet come to that, my dear... <le sigh>
When you buy a game, you buy the rules. Play happens in the space between the rules.

#35 Ms. B. Havin

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Posted 28 October 2008 - 10:09 PM

More rain for the parade....

B.C.'s surplus to shrink by ‘hundreds of millions'

excerpts:
British Columbia's expected surplus is leaking like a flat tire, with hundreds of millions of dollars expected to disappear as a result of downturns in housing, forestry and other sectors.

(...snip)

Hits to projected revenues will come across the board, in areas such as property-transfer tax, natural-gas royalties and stumpage revenues from the beleaguered forestry sector, he said.

Mr. Pastrick based his estimate of declining revenue from property-transfer taxes on “back of the envelope” calculations that take into account the credit union's most recent housing forecasts, which predict a 17-per-cent drop in sales and a 13-per-cent decline in prices in 2009.

Property-transfer tax is paid when people buy or acquire an interest in a property and is based on market value: 1 per cent on the first $200,000 and 2 per cent on any amount higher than that.

With housing prices declining and fewer homes being built, revenue from property-transfer taxes is expected to drop.


When you buy a game, you buy the rules. Play happens in the space between the rules.

#36 mat

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Posted 28 October 2008 - 10:20 PM

More rain for the parade....

B.C.'s surplus to shrink by ‘hundreds of millions'

excerpts:
British Columbia's expected surplus is leaking like a flat tire, with hundreds of millions of dollars expected to disappear as a result of downturns in housing, forestry and other sectors.

(...snip)

Hits to projected revenues will come across the board, in areas such as property-transfer tax, natural-gas royalties and stumpage revenues from the beleaguered forestry sector, he said.

Mr. Pastrick based his estimate of declining revenue from property-transfer taxes on “back of the envelope” calculations that take into account the credit union's most recent housing forecasts, which predict a 17-per-cent drop in sales and a 13-per-cent decline in prices in 2009.

Property-transfer tax is paid when people buy or acquire an interest in a property and is based on market value: 1 per cent on the first $200,000 and 2 per cent on any amount higher than that.

With housing prices declining and fewer homes being built, revenue from property-transfer taxes is expected to drop.


Which gets into the BC Gov. non-sensical approach to no deficit. We might actually get to the point of restricting prime services, like health care, as legislation prevents deficit spending. BC has built up a 'nest egg' which Campbell has already allocated to the ferries, infrastructure building - his 'new deal'. A year from now, when revenues really fall short, will the next Provincial Gov. allow a deficit?

No point building a new wing at Jubilee if, when it opens, the beds are closed due to staff cuts.

#37 mat

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Posted 30 October 2008 - 06:57 PM

just to make full use of the word 'wither' vs 'whither' in this thread title - the medium term outlook for Alberta is looking seriously bleak. That will affect us here for a number of reasons. Times UK article.

Real Estate - fewer Albertans buying into our local residential housing. Fewer still investing in commercial/condo developments.

Tech and service - many local tech companies have contracts with Alberta companies, or multi-nationals. Services such as legal, financial and consulting based here (or with affiliate outlets) will see a revenue downturn.

Tourism - the number of Albertans visiting BC and Victoria might actually increase, as families cut overseas trips, but the spend will be down.

The linked article points to a medium term (1-3 year) trend of slowing investment in fossil energy production, and resources. That indicates a real downturn in production companies here (forestry, natural gas, etc.) and the local companies who support them.

#38 mat

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Posted 14 November 2008 - 09:31 PM

NYT - In a Down Economy Spam Sales are UP



Through war and recession, Americans have turned to the glistening canned product from Hormel as a way to save money while still putting something that resembles meat on the table. Now, in a sign of the times, it is happening again, and Hormel is cranking out as much Spam as its workers can produce.

In a factory that abuts Interstate 90, two shifts of workers have been making Spam seven days a week since July, and they have been told that the relentless work schedule will continue indefinitely.

Spam, a gelatinous 12-ounce rectangle of spiced ham and pork, may be among the world’s most maligned foods, dismissed as inedible by food elites and skewered by comedians who have offered smart-alecky theories on its name (one G-rated example: Something Posing As Meat).


Now, I for one used to adore spam - lots of memories of camping, road trips and student days. Haven't had it for years - but there is a can or 2 in our earthquake kit.

#39 Roger

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Posted 16 January 2009 - 03:48 PM

Last night Global TV had a report on the BC economy forecast for 2009 and 2010. A lot of the footage at the beginning was shot here in Victoria. The report starts after a short commercial.

Global Economy report - Jan 15.

#40 Ginger Snap

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Posted 16 January 2009 - 07:32 PM

I just started reading the book 'The Great Depression Ahead' by HS Dent. It is so interesting, and talks about a number of financial cycles... I gather his firm has been predicting this blow out for quite some time now, and he has written previous books with predictions that have been bang on (like the dot com bust and the recent real estate run up). His warnings are far more dire than anything you would read in the mainstream media... suggests that we won't hit bottom until 2012, and then plateau until approx 2020. It is a very interesting read so far.

As an aside, I have never figured out why people turn up their nose at tourism as an industry. What real or perceived blight has tourism caused on this city? Tourism is not exactly the industry of fat cats...Most tourism operations are small ones, employing students, or people just starting out in their careers. And do those who take offence at tourism in Victoria also abstain from travel themselves, so as not to cause a blight on other cities or locales? Just wondering, for real.

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