Jump to content

      













Photo

The Victoria Economy Thread


  • Please log in to reply
775 replies to this topic

#61 gumgum

gumgum
  • Member
  • 7,069 posts

Posted 02 March 2009 - 12:23 PM

^So true.

#62 Roger

Roger
  • Member
  • 284 posts

Posted 02 March 2009 - 01:39 PM

Post deleted by author

#63 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 11,662 posts

Posted 02 March 2009 - 05:54 PM

G-Man,

The reason why money was pulled out of the stock market was because it never existed. It was "money" created by debt and leverage that was all part of a giant global ponzi scheme that came crashing down once there were no more "suckers" to invest. The average retail investor has little to no impact on the markets and hasn't for 20 years.

The TD Bank made money last quarter, albeit 20%+ less than last year, but many banks have lost money (including Desjardins which reported today). If you think about it, the media has no motivation for presenting bad news. Most media companies are at the forefront of the economic collapse as ad revenues have dropped drastically. In this case I honestly believe the media is simply casting a mirror on society as a whole.

I listened to Michael Campbell last weekend on CFAX whom I respect, even though he is the Premier's brother. Michael is conversative and careful in his commentary but even he was suggesting that there would be blood split before this was all over.

#64 Ginger Snap

Ginger Snap
  • Member
  • 177 posts

Posted 02 March 2009 - 09:07 PM

And please excuse my view on tourism.... but, IMO, its fluff. Its a perk. It's a gratuity. It's a complete and total 'bonus' industry(?) that runs on the economic tides. Be happy when its working for us. DON'T dare fuss if it isn't. My 2 cents


Well, I *seriously* doubt the more than 30,000 people employed in tourism in the region would follow your 'logic' here. They should just enjoy it when it's good, and shrug it off when it's bad? How about the people who own small businesses, like a B&B, and have spent their life building their business up?

And by the way, what exactly is a 'fluff' industry, and what is one of substance, in your opinion? Does it have to be saving lives? How about high tech? Retail? Is that fluff, too?

Tourism is a very large part of our local economy... not just an added perk.

#65 Roger

Roger
  • Member
  • 284 posts

Posted 02 March 2009 - 10:31 PM

Well, I *seriously* doubt the more than 30,000 people employed in tourism in the region would follow your 'logic' here. They should just enjoy it when it's good, and shrug it off when it's bad? How about the people who own small businesses, like a B&B, and have spent their life building their business up?

And by the way, what exactly is a 'fluff' industry, and what is one of substance, in your opinion? Does it have to be saving lives? How about high tech? Retail? Is that fluff, too?

Tourism is a very large part of our local economy... not just an added perk.


The tourism industry accounted for 1.2 Billion dollars of revenue in 2007 in Greater Victoria. CRD Factsheet
That is hardly "fluff"

#66 G-Man

G-Man

    Senior Case Officer

  • Moderator
  • 12,917 posts

Posted 02 March 2009 - 10:33 PM

Spanky, the fact you believe a dollar is a dollar shows that you are a victim of a gigantic ponzi scheme. The economy is nothing more than human whim so I disgree that there can be a ponzi scheme in a ponzi scheme.

#67 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 11,662 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 08:51 AM

Not sure that I can translate your comment into English there G-man but I will agree with you on one thing in that I know squat about what is going to happen. The only difference is that I admit I cannot predict the future while most politicians and experts claim they can.

In the event of extreme uncertainty and risk I tend to dig in and protect my interests. As long are there are enough people like you who keep spending like its business as usual we should be ok for a while.

#68 Ms. B. Havin

Ms. B. Havin
  • Member
  • 5,052 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 10:28 AM

I didn't think G-man was suggesting we "spend as usual" (i.e., with more debt). He has a point that panic about the economy adds to the problem. And he's very right about a dollar not being a dollar. Dollars are abstractions, symbols of exchange. Think about it.
When you buy a game, you buy the rules. Play happens in the space between the rules.

#69 Ms. B. Havin

Ms. B. Havin
  • Member
  • 5,052 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 10:30 AM

If money were as solidly real as "a dollar is a dollar," then governments couldn't go ahead and print more of it. (Not that I'm suggesting they do that - look at Zimbabwe - but...)
When you buy a game, you buy the rules. Play happens in the space between the rules.

#70 maniac78

maniac78
  • Member
  • 271 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 10:32 AM

The only thing that will lead us out of this recession is production. All the government spending in the world and all the hope and change you can muster will do nothing until production ramps up again. What will the catalyst be for increased production? Who knows. It's not going to be green crap or shovel ready projects I can tell you that.

#71 Bernard

Bernard
  • Member
  • 4,241 posts
  • LocationVictoria BC

Posted 03 March 2009 - 11:05 AM

I meant to do this ages ago, but my title for the thread was intentional.

Ultimately we in Victoria are not going to suffer as much as elsewhere

1) Employment in government, military and UVic/Camosun is not going to fall, this is the core of our economy.

2) Canada has done a much better job than the US and elsewhere in macro economic policy over the last twenty years.

3) BC is much less dependent on the US than the rest of Canada.

We still see problems because the economic drop has been stunning in much of the world. The US saw a 6.7% annualized decline in the 4th quarter and Japan one of more than 12% on an annualized basis.

We need to make it easier for business to function, though this does not mean no oversight or regulation. The ability of a bright 25 year old to go out and start an innovative company (ala ABE Books in the past) is the sort of thing that will help our economy recover and thrive.

Efficiency and increased productivity are also things that will make a big difference. Canada has been laggard in this respect for decades. As an example, the CRD has the Sooke reservoir but does not use it to produce electrical power. It would be easy to add a turbine to the existing outflow and produce green power and defray the costs of the water system.

#72 Newlywednotnearlydead

Newlywednotnearlydead
  • Member
  • 187 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 11:32 AM

Anyone that doesn't already know that the media are prolonging the economic downturn should wake to the fact that is exactly what is happening.

The economy is really nothing more than a numerical way of looking at the mood, desires and fears of the general population on a massive scale.

If everyone woke up tomorrow and thought it was ok to come out from under the rock the economy would be back to where it was in a few short weeks. This is of course not going to happen. So we going on feeling sorry for our selves as a collective for the next few years after which we will feel like partying again and back up it goes.

It's your emotions, stupid!


This economic crisis is the unwinding of a massive credit bubble. It can't be solved with happy thoughts and wishes and it can't be solved by people spending money they don't have.

#73 knightofstjohn

knightofstjohn
  • Member
  • 22 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 01:59 PM

Ultimately we in Victoria are not going to suffer as much as elsewhere

1) Employment in government, military and UVic/Camosun is not going to fall, this is the core of our economy.

2) Canada has done a much better job than the US and elsewhere in macro economic policy over the last twenty years.

3) BC is much less dependent on the US than the rest of Canada.


1) Er, sort of wishful thinking my friend. Government has already announced they'll axe most of their contractors and greatly reduce local spending to tighten the budget. Internal documents (that have been leaked and reported on locally) have already suggested that up to 5 per cent of the public service may be laid off in the near term. There are also discussions about a four day work week. Yes, people keep their jobs, but they have less expendable income. As to post-secondary institutions, many are in deep trouble because of bad investments in Asset Backed Commercial Paper (which has reduced working capital), decreases in endowments, expected reductions in fundraising due to the economic times and an expectation that money from the provincial government will also decrease because they have less money. Then there's the issue of tuition -- you've assumed people can still afford it. You're probably correct about the military.

2) I agree with your assessment about macro economic policy.

3) You say BC is much less dependent on the US than elsewhere in Canada? Who buys our oil? Who buys our lumber? Who played a large part in our real estate boom? Where did significant investment capital for mines and mills come from? Where do the tourists come from? I don't think you can ever minimize the role of Uncle Sam anywhere in this country...

Here you go, in 2008 (BC stats) the usa accounted for 53 per cent of BC's exports to the tune of more than 17.5 billion. The next biggest was Japan, who accounted for 15 per cent of our exports. Aren't Japan and the US two of the hardest hit "first world" economies right now?

If you want further evidence take a look at the layoffs at A channel and CFAX. These were decisions made by someone back east because of GLOBAL economic conditions, not local ones. People on the island need to stop living in dreamland and thinking they're somehow protected form the rest of the world....

#74 Bernard

Bernard
  • Member
  • 4,241 posts
  • LocationVictoria BC

Posted 03 March 2009 - 04:45 PM

Note, I said we would not suffer as much as elsewhere, I did not say things would be brilliant.

My biggest disagreement with you is about government employment. The two previous major government staff down sizings, one by the Liberals and one by the NDP, did not lead to net loss of jobs in Victoria.

#75 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 11,662 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 06:22 PM

The Government has already announced nearly $200M in cuts to service providers. That alone will have the biggest impact as we have a large number of consultants and contractors based in Victoria. They won't be counted as unemployed or "cut" since they are private contractors for the most part and are not eligible for EI anyways. What the Liberals and NDP did early was replace one set of consultants with their own. This is different. Those positions are gone as peeps are saying that the real budget deficit is closer to $2B and that the $465M figure is just for the election.

University and College enrolment will likely increase as high school students extended their education rather than try to find a job. Any additional employment due to undergrand enrolment will be more than offset in reductions in post-grad and research work as funding cust in those areas have a much larger impact on staffing.

Tourism and Tech are the two largest sectors in Victoria. Both are in trouble and will see large job losses this year.

#76 AnonAnnie2

AnonAnnie2
  • Member
  • 151 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 06:46 PM

This economic crisis is the unwinding of a massive credit bubble. It can't be solved with happy thoughts and wishes and it can't be solved by people spending money they don't have.


A good bottle of dark, rich ruby-red port and I bet I can put a big dent in the issue.
:D

#77 gumgum

gumgum
  • Member
  • 7,069 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 07:14 PM

^Now you're talking.

#78 Newlywednotnearlydead

Newlywednotnearlydead
  • Member
  • 187 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 08:36 PM

A good bottle of dark, rich ruby-red port and I bet I can put a big dent in the issue.
:D


Yeah, might as well enjoy the ride. :)

#79 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 11,662 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 09:29 PM

A good bottle of dark, rich ruby-red port and I bet I can put a big dent in the issue.
:D


Here are some suggested topics for upcoming shows Susan:

1. Remember when we used to buy cars from companies called GM and Chrysler

2. Remember when the company you worked for had a pension plan and you could retire at 65 and get money every month until you and your spouse died.

3. Remember when you could get a cheap home equity loan and you could use the extra money for things like vacations, a big screen TV and an SUV.

4. Remember when your teenage kid had two or three job offers before they even graduated from high school.

5. Remember when your grandparents didn't have to work to pay for their retirement after they were retired.

#80 victorian fan

victorian fan
  • Member
  • 1,923 posts

Posted 04 March 2009 - 09:02 AM

^
Change #3 to Never borrow money and it looks like I'm living the dream.

You're not quite at the end of this discussion topic!

Use the page links at the lower-left to go to the next page to read additional posts.
 



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users