1896 replies to this topic

[dasmo]

Here is what it looks like what only supply is focused on and the Zelots will not allow demand to be mentioned. 

[dasmo]

That's not accurate.  There is still flexibility.

 

You are not taking into account that when rents get higher, people per dwelling unit increases.

Like renting half of a Master bedroom for $650. That is not price adjustment that is shinkflation. 

[Victoria Watcher]

I'm not a zealot, but I know a tiny bit about economic theory, and a lot about when people choose roommates, or Aunt Hazel decides to let out a bedroom for the first time since 1992. 

 

So your "wall" statement is not accurate.

[Victoria Watcher]

Like renting half of a Master bedroom for $650. That is not price adjustment that is shinkflation. 

 

It might be, but you understand the theory.

 

I bought a 20" RCA TV for about $450 in 1980, no remote control.  If you were to believe some economically illiterate people, the evil manufacturers or retailers never would have dropped the price.  They would have just kept charging the same or more.  That $450 is $1,609 in today's dollars, just using the inflation calculator.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 September 2023 - 09:05 AM.

[dasmo]

I'm not a zealot, but I know a tiny bit about economic theory, and a lot about when people choose roommates, or Aunt Hazel decides to let out a bedroom for the first time since 1992. 

 

So your "wall" statement is not accurate.

I'm not serious about it and not calling you a Zelot haha. 

[Ismo07]

 

Well, correct.

 

But, if pre-GST-cut those 1000 are only 500, what do these mean:

 

• 500 new rentals 4000 new residents - higher rents and/or more scarcity
• 1000 new rentals 4000 new residents - lower rents and/or less scarcity

 

 

But that isn't going to double supply, not even close.  I'm not sure rents will ever come down.  More supply will bring more people.  Rents continue to increase.  You would have to add so much more supply to make a dent there.

[Victoria Watcher]

But that isn't going to double supply, not even close.  I'm not sure rents will ever come down.  More supply will bring more people.  Rents continue to increase.  You would have to add so much more supply to make a dent there.

 

Probably.  

 

Sort of like the highest density (most housing per square km) places all over the world are the most expensive.

 

I've said it here before.

 

What if suddenly there were an extra 5,000 $300,000 condos here?  Would we solve the low vacancy rate and high rents, or would we just attract lots of non-local second-home investors, and most would sit empty 8-11 months of each year?

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 September 2023 - 09:22 AM.

[Ismo07]

Probably.  

 

Sort of like the highest density (most housing per square km) places all over the world are the most expensive.

 

I've said it here before.

 

What if suddenly there were an extra 5,000 $300,000 condos here?  Would we solve the low vacancy rate and high rents, or would we just attract lots of non-local second-home investors, and most would sit empty 8-11 months of each year?

 

Well this GST reduction is only for rental properties.  Now if they made it so GST wasn't on newly built purchase prices AND on multifamily construction then maybe that would start to help a little...  You'll never see $300K condos again though.

Edited by Ismo07, 15 September 2023 - 09:56 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

Well this GST reduction is only for rental properties.  Now if they made it so GST wasn't on newly built purchase prices AND on multifamily construction then maybe that would start to help a little...

 

But then they have to make up those GST revenue losses somewhere.

 

 

 

  You'll never see $300K condos again though.

 

 

 

I know just using an extreme example of how low-priced local supply does not solve a local issue when there are other external factors that can/will come into play.

[Ismo07]

But then they have to make up those GST revenue losses somewhere.

 

 

 

 

I know just using an extreme example of how low-priced local supply does not solve a local issue when there are other external factors that can/will come into play.

 

Ah agreed 

[dasmo]

Systemic government intervention is the problem. Look at almost everything right now. From news to homelessness to affordable housing to drug addiction to healthcare. All areas that have had increased government intervention over the last few decades.

Pave the road, don’t take the wheel.

[Ismo07]

Systemic government intervention is the problem. Look at almost everything right now. From news to homelessness to affordable housing to drug addiction to healthcare. All areas that have had increased government intervention over the last few decades.

Pave the road, don’t take the wheel.

 

Wasn't some of the homelessness due to a decrease in government intervention when they closed down the mental institutions?  All of those issues have increased in most countries all around the world...

Edited by Ismo07, 15 September 2023 - 10:35 AM.

[dasmo]

Wasn't some of the homelessness due to a decrease in government intervention when they closed down the mental institutions?

Closing an existing institution is government intervention. Then they create new ministries and bureaucratic jobs an contract to their Cronies. "Budget 2023 also provides $1.5 billion in operating and capital funding over three years to further action for new and expanded responses to address homelessness and encampments."

[Ismo07]

Closing an existing institution is government intervention. Then they create new ministries and bureaucratic jobs an contract to their Cronies. "Budget 2023 also provides $1.5 billion in operating and capital funding over three years to further action for new and expanded responses to address homelessness and encampments."

 

Ah so back when those institutions were created, government intervention was good?  You want it both ways?  Feds should be doing better in their actions for sure not less. 

[dasmo]

Ah so back when those institutions were created, government intervention was good?  You want it both ways?  Feds should be doing better in their actions for sure not less. 

 I said systemic. Increased action for the sake of action is what I am pointing at. They should do better with less.... 

[lanforod]

We haven't hit any affordability wall / equilibrium until rents stop increasing (and demand is still > supply). They aren't showing any sign of that.

Edited by lanforod, 15 September 2023 - 01:11 PM.

[dasmo]

We haven't hit any affordability wall / equilibrium until rents stop increasing (and demand is still > supply). They aren't showing any sign of that.

True, it's a need with no substitute except for a tent downtown, or sharing a master bedroom with someone, or leaving. So there are signs of resistance. 

[Mike K.]

I fully expect an announcement regarding primary residences to make up the tax shortfall.

The GST eradication -is- going to be helpful, it’s a 5% improvement on a pro forma, that’s huge, relatively speaking. But for the end-user, there will be no difference. It’ll help some projects get off the ground that were questionable earlier, but the level of population growth will keep the rent trajectory pointed way up.

[spanky123]

^ The GST of course means that developers can no longer offset their GST expense with the GST income they would receive from a sale, but they can presumably sell the property for 5% more.

 

A capital gains tax on the sale of a primary residence has been discussed for years, but I don't think it has the support the Liberals think it does. Even renters won't support it if they believe it will impact them down the road when they eventually buy.

 

I am sure the Liberals will start with a tax on properties over say $3M to punish the greedy buggers who bought nice homes, but we all know that the figure will creep down over time and eventually it will apply to everything. Now the US has had a capital gains tax for years but they also allow mortgage interest to be deducted from income.

Edited by spanky123, 18 September 2023 - 09:58 AM.

[spanky123]

Meanwhile new home construction is falling as we rapidly increase immigration.

 

https://betterdwelli...l-back-further/

 

Canada might not have a problem growing its population, but it has a big problem building housing. CMHC data reveals that new housing starts fell in August, despite the population boom. Only two provinces, BC and Ontario, have seen growth over the past year. The declines are expected to continue, prices were driven out of reach for end-users, and investors are no longer interested due to climbing rates