465 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

Ok, but how does that help people who can't drive? Transit isn't just about reducing traffic congestion, it's critical for providing social mobility, access to economic opportunities, healthcare, education, and other government services that can't be offered in every tiny community. It's likely something that we'll need to subsidize unless we want to further impoverish remote rural communities across the province.

 

family.  volunteers.  friends.  even benevolent strangers.  informal ride-share agreements.  this is how it has worked for almost all of the population in almost all of of the country forever.   we don't need to subsidize anything.  just let people do what people do.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 14 May 2020 - 06:03 PM.

[UserofVic]

That worked out so well for highway 16

[Victoria Watcher]

That worked out so well for highway 16

 

two completely different topics.

[Mike K.]

That worked out so well for highway 16

Ride the greyhound and you might get beheaded and cannibalized, though. Risks all around.

- https://en.m.wikiped...g_of_Tim_McLean

[Mike K.]

Hmm, the beheading lead to lower bus use in Sask: “ The minister for Saskatchewan’s Crown Investments Corp. says a beheading on a Greyhound bus in Manitoba 10 years ago was the beginning of a steep decline in bus ridership in his province.” - https://www.google.c...-ridership/amp/

[todd]

Hmm, the beheading lead to lower bus use in Sask: “ The minister for Saskatchewan’s Crown Investments Corp. says a beheading on a Greyhound bus in Manitoba 10 years ago was the beginning of a steep decline in bus ridership in his province.” - https://www.google.c...-ridership/amp/

Prior to that nobody had ever heard of bus rage: https://www.cbc.ca/n...ge-ads-1.722960

[UserofVic]

What makes highway 16 completely different though? Both are remote rural highways, both have small communities. I admit I can't find anything about poverty in either case, but I don't doubt the north island faces issues like the rest of BC.Friends and family are not always willing or able to give rides. The north island could end up in a very similar place without basic service.

 

The large and continuing ridership decline following what was a horrific incident heavily implies the service is only being used by those with no other options. And maybe a small number of tourists who just won't visit the north island without such a service. My main point still stands, communities without a basic transportation link further entrench the cycle of poverty.

 

The lack of transportation prevents low income seniors from reaching medical appointments. A lack of intercity buses prevents post-secondary students from returning home for holidays, when residence usually kicks them out. Not everyone can rely on friends or family. A lack of intercity bus service makes it more expensive to move to a bigger centre with more jobs. Strangers can't be relied on while a bus service can be planned around. It doesn't have to be good service, just enough to link communities to the outside world.

 

This is about Ontario, but it shows the same issues BC is facing with rural connectivity, notably these two lines.

 

The bus also remains a popular — if gruelling — way to get to far-off destinations like New York. But at the ticket counter, the number of destinations for which one can buy a ticket has plummeted. Hundreds of weekly bus trips and dozens of routes have been cut in the last 30 years...

 

...In 1991, virtually every city and town in Ontario, from Hawkesbury to Leamington to Rainy River, had access to at least one daily intercity bus route.

I imagine BC was the same, so I heavily dispute the claim that Canadians living in small towns during the post-war era up to the late 20th century were solely relying on friends, family, or strangers willing to drive them over 100km to see a medical specialist.

 

These same problems play out in the States too where intercity bus service used to be far more expansive than it is today.

Edited by UserofVic, 14 May 2020 - 10:30 PM.

[Mike K.]

Is there a bus to Port Renfrew?

[Victoria Watcher]

Is there a bus to Port Renfrew?

 

yes.  seasonal.  and it's closed now though.  $55 one way victoria to port renfrew.

 

there is no bus to almost all homes.  even those that take the bus to port hardy etc. or campbell river etc. probably get a ride to the pick-up spot.  now they will ask that family member to drive further for them.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 May 2020 - 05:32 AM.

[UserofVic]

Port McNeil to Campbell River is over a 2 hour drive. Even if someone's getting a ride to the pickup point it'd be like 10-15 minutes. "Hey could you drive me 5 minutes down the road?" vs "Hey could you drive me 3 hours south to Courtney?" What would you be more willing to do? There's also local transit on the North Island as part of the Mt Waddington Transit System served via BC Transit, so assuming the local routes hit the intercity ones then I expect people make transfers. Fun fact though, all communities of at least 5000 in BC have at least basic BC Transit service except for areas served by Translink. Combined Port McNeil and Port Hardy alone make up over 6000 residents. Port Renfrew is only home to 144 people. 60x difference in population. Jordan River is the only other settlement along the Highway 14 corridor past Sooke, and it seems smaller (There's no easily accessible population number). Well there's also the area just past Sooke, but Otter Point Road and Kemp Lake road is planned to receive service as part of the Sooke Local Area Transit Plan so whenever that happens it'll just be serviced by the Victoria Regional Transit System only a transfer away from downtown and intercity service isn't a baseline link.

 

The Sooke plan also fills in a service gap in Beecher Bay by extending the East Sooke route go all the way to Langford. Kinda adds to rural areas getting increased service levels, along with Tofino-Ucluelet soon getting transit. Neither of these will be profitable and are already subsided, but they provide access to and from those areas for both residents and visitors alike.

 

I'd also like to say there was a time in the post war era where urban transit services became unprofitable and switched hands from private to public operators. Worked out a lot better for Canadian cities than American ones too. Transportation is a critical driver of economic growth after all.

[Victoria Watcher]

greyhound used to be profitable. now it’s not because people figure out better ways and more families have multiple cars. basically more people are available to give rides than ever before. that’s a good thing. why go backwards?

[UserofVic]

So to be clear you don't care what happens to the rural poor? Because that's what I'm getting from everything you wrote. Not every family can afford a car, you're out of touch if you think that's at all true. There's so much wealth in this province and yet we have the second highest poverty rate in Canada, which is pathetic of us.

 

If rides is so much better why does the route have an annual ridership of 4068? There was 4068 times last year where the bus beat cars, why? Maybe because rides aren't an option for everyone! Maybe older people don't feel safe driving the windy rural highway for so long. Maybe the cars they do have aren't reliable enough to risk breaking down a 4+ hour round trip. Maybe people hate feeling like their a burden on their friends and family and want basic mobility and independence.

 

Also for profits tell me again how much BC has made off our toll free roads? We could save so much money by closing rural roads! But wait that has economic benefits for those regions and provides critical mobility links, which buses do too! Tofino buses doesn't care about what it's service does for society, it only cares about it's bottom line. Completely valid as a private company, but their service provides benefits far past their own bottom line. What effects will the North Island have without reliable inter-city bus service? Will less tourists travel there once the option is gone? Will it increase a population decline once they're further isolated? Will it result in higher traffic fatalities (I can assure you it will). Will it prevent youth from seeking out higher education? Will the loss of this mobility necessitate an increase in welfare spending by the provincial government?

 

Greyhound also had some major on-time performance problems and ran a pretty horrible service compared to inter-city bus operators internationally.. It being a bus is far from the only reason it's tanking. Also they still are profitable between major city pairs. We're behind developing nations in our transit infrastructure, we're already so far behind and we keep going further by cutting off access.

 

There could be ways to modify the service to make it more cost-effective sure, but at the end of the day without reliable transportation rural areas are left to wither and die. I should note that profits from busier routes being used to cover unprofitable ones counts as a solution here, which is what's done now, but that relies on the other routes actually making money. I originally suggested funding because the province overall is struggling with rural connectivity for those unable or unwilling to drive, and that model seems to have failed overall.

Edited by UserofVic, 17 May 2020 - 01:28 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

So to be clear you don't care what happens to the rural poor? Because that's what I'm getting from everything you wrote. 

 

 

 

that's not you being clear that's you putting words in my mouth.  perhaps i have not explained my position well.

 

Not every family can afford a car, you're out of touch if you think that's at all true.

 

 

i never said that.  i DID say that as a whole we've never owned so many cars per capita as we do today.  that continues to trend up. 

 

There's so much wealth in this province and yet we have the second highest poverty rate in Canada, which is pathetic of us.

 

 

it not pathetic of ME.  so leave me out of your US.  never in my life has so much of my take home income gone to taxes to be redistributed largely to others.

 

you think wealth redistribution is the key to poverty reduction.  i don't.

 

If rides is so much better why does the route have an annual ridership of 4068?

 

 

that's a tiny tiny fraction of overall trips on those routes.  i posit that that tiny number of people take the bus because it's relatively cheap or convenient to do so.  it's certainly not their only option though.

 

Maybe people hate feeling like their a burden on their friends and family and want basic mobility and independence.

 

 

so they feel that placing the financial burden on taxpayers as a whole is better than friends and family?  and they want "mobility and independence" but want me to pay for it?  they want independence - that i pay for?  that's not very independent.  it sounds selectively independent.  

 

What effects will the North Island have without reliable inter-city bus service?

 

 

probably very little or none.

 

Will less tourists travel there once the option is gone?

 

 

no.

 

Will it increase a population decline once they're further isolated? 

 

 

no.  particularly as there is no population decline in this region.

 

We're behind developing nations in our transit infrastructure, we're already so far behind and we keep going further by cutting off access.

 

 

mostly because we are way ahead of them in personal automobile use.  most people want to own cars.  and do in this province.

 

There could be ways to modify the service to make it more cost-effective sure, but at the end of the day without reliable transportation rural areas are left to wither and die.

 

 

the north island is not withering and dying.  by any measure.

 

 

QUOTE:  I should note that profits from busier routes being used to cover unprofitable ones counts as a solution here, which is what's done now, but that relies on the other routes actually making money.

 

 

there is no reason to believe there is any significant profit in any western canada bus routes.  that's why greyhound left.  there are zero routes left to subsidize other.

 

the future of inter-city ground travel is formal and informal ride sharing and car sharing and general low cost automobile ownership and operation.  and soon driver-less cars.

 

the future is not buses.  that's the past.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 17 May 2020 - 05:28 AM.

[Mike K.]

Past Sooke are the communities of Otter Point and Shirley. Several thousand people live out that way, with zero transit services for many, many kilometres, and none in planning beyond a very limited service along Otter Point Road. Beyond that you have Jordan River, and of course, Renfrew.

If the communities of Port Hardy and McNeil, Sayward, Port Alice and Woss want bus transport they’ll need to find a way to make it work via property taxation. If a business can’t sustain itself due to ultra low demand, it can’t sustain itself and needs to be subsidized by the local population.

[UserofVic]

Mike: I'm not sure its several thousand people, at least excluding Otter Point and maybe Shirley. The JDF Electoral district is home to less than 5000 people, and Port Renfrew and Jordon River are tiny. Probably less than 500 people combined. Shirley seems bigger, but I can't find more granular data than the JDF electoral district as a whole and Port Renfew being home to 144 people. I sorta lumped Otter Point and Shirley into Sooke but realize my mistake. It's been years since I've gone past Sooke and I used Satellite view when double checking, completely missed Shirley. Certainly Shirley could use rural service, especially as Sooke grows into more of a hub. I also wouldn't say the planned Otter Point service is vert limited for what it is. Every 2 hours and a 6am-9pm span isn't great, but it's a rural area, its main point is to provide basic access and coverage, not ridership. It's comparable to what Metchosin gets when factoring in the lack of institutional use and a lower population. I'd certainly like better connections along Highway 14, but it's pretty sparse past Shirley unfortunately (or fortunately in most other contexts?). The North island has a higher population than the entire JDF electoral district by a few thousand people. Also you forgot Alert Bay and Sointula, that's like 5-7 Port Renfrew's worth of potential passengers ;P

 

 

Also Victoria Watcher, I did not mean to call you pathetic, I was calling the system pathetic.It's an Important difference, but I worded it poorly. Sorry it came off as rude, I assure you it wasn't my intent. At least aside from my first snarky line which was not the best approach on my part. It's just not a system working for everyone when we can be a wealthy province yet have so many people barely surviving. We have a low unemployment rate, yet poverty? I mean that could be urban housing costs creating the gap moreso than rural transportation, but clearly something's wrong. Also a running a bus isn't wealth redistribution, it's transportation infrastructure. If you call rural roads and ferries redistributing wealth sure it is, but if you call roads infrastructure than no it's infrastructure. Fair enough to argue it's underutilized, but at a core level it's not very different than a road. It moves people, it moves cargo (intercity buses often run freight too). It allows people to engage in economic activities and hopefully creates more external taxes/cost savings than it costs to operate. I haven't done the math, nor do I have near enough data to do so, but I've been assuming it ends up with more benefits than costs at a societal level. I could be wrong, I don't have the data nor expertise to compute all this, but I'm assuming it saves/earns society more than it costs. Flaw of course, but that's where I'm coming from. Possibly with the option to reduce the specific North Island corridor from daily service to only a few times per week eg more cost effective. That's where I've been coming from at least, with a focus on those relying on the service as it is. Anyway other than that I think this is getting circular and neither of us will convince the other of much.

 

Although to be fair this all just started with me saying it sucks for anyone who relies on the existing service. No one else seemed to acknowledge that at all at any point, just that more people drive the route like that wasn't obvious already. Even if you think the service shouldn't continue, can we agree cutting the service would suck for the people relying on it? Cause that's entirely what my first reply said, that it can't be good for people without a car. Saying few people take the bus compared to those driving is like "Oh it sucks their car broke down" "but look at all these other people who's cars didn't!" It comes across as cold and uncaring. Even if you believe it's just an inconvenience, those still suck at least a bit. I'll shut up if I can get that much and I'll respect all your arguments with it too. I'll acknowledge that higher taxes suck, because they do suck. There's no perfect solution. Maybe ride-sharing is great, certainly mitigates the impacts, but it's already an option, so I can't see how removing the bus helps anyone aside from the operator. If you opened with how ride-sharing can help instead of just comparing the ridership to traffic numbers I would've taken much better to the argument at first, and not got the impression you don't care. Again sorry for the rudeness in my last reply.

 

Also to clarify when I said we may need to subsidize I didn't necessarily mean all of us as individuals so much as the abstract society. Be it the towns getting the service, the regional districts, the province, or the country as a whole. It'd be the worst case option, but if needed where the money comes from can be figured out on a case by case basis kinda deal. And for the merits of inter-city bus service I was getting jumbled between the North Island as a whole, and all of small town Canada, and even the US, that's seen vastly decreased inter-city travel options in recent decades. The North island is economically better off than a lot of places, but a lot of BC isn't.

Edited by UserofVic, 19 May 2020 - 01:22 AM.

[UserofVic]

Oh also when I said operators internationally I was thinking Japan, which is a developed rich nation. There's these hotel buses that seem high quality. There's normal buses too, but there's still options above what the North American idea is. LA-San Francisco has a similar overnight service. It's premium and overnight so it's not likely to appeal within BC with Kelwona-Vancouver being the only signifigant population centres connected by road, that are more than a couple hours apart. Most people don't expect this type of service to exist though which is why I bring it up. Then here's something going over what normal buses in Japan are like, though they got one without bathrooms so that's different than the NA model, but might just be cheap

[Victoria Watcher]

one thing towns could do to help subsidize is provide indoor terminal space.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 19 May 2020 - 02:08 AM.

[Mike K.]

Mike: I'm not sure its several thousand people, at least excluding Otter Point and maybe Shirley. The JDF Electoral district is home to less than 5000 people, and Port Renfrew and Jordon River are tiny. Probably less than 500 people combined. Shirley seems bigger, but I can't find more granular data than the JDF electoral district as a whole and Port Renfew being home to 144 people. I sorta lumped Otter Point and Shirley into Sooke but realize my mistake.

Shirley and OP are part of the JDFEA, which the CRD estimates is at 5,500 people now. That also includes East Sooke.

But past Grant Road in Sooke there are no year round regular transit or transport services, but you’ve got thousands of people out there.

Out in Port Renfrew you also have a First Nations reserve and I don’t think that population is included in the 144 we talked about, but it could be? Come summer I think their population also grows like it does in Tofino and Ucky.

Meanwhile up in Cowichan you’ve got transit services from Duncan to Shawnigan Lake which are 20km apart, but past Sooke’s town centre there is nothing.

[UserofVic]

I agree that it's undeserved regardless. Really the entire transit system hasn't kept up population growth in at least the last decade, with Sooke and the Westshore being especially behind. I hope the Otter Point rd service comes sooner rather than later to fill some of those gaps even if it misses what's past it, better than nothing kinda deal. Though you're missing the 3 trip a weekday existing 63 route that goes down Kempt Lake road. It's really not much, but it is better than nothing and runs year round on weekdays. The Sooke area plan calls for what would be a relatively massive increase in service and coverage that I want to see happen. Same with the East Sooke expansion and extension, both will make the rural edge of Greater Victoria more accessible to non-drivers than it is today, even if it probably should be more. On that note it's somewhat odd Shawnigan gets more service to Duncan than Victoria when it's geographically a similar distance as Sooke and Sidney are from downtown.

[Mike K.]

Oh it totally does, doesn’t it? I wonder if there’s a bit of a rivalry going on at the moment.

StatsCan says that for a town to be included in a CMA, 50%+ of the work force must work in that CMA. Are we to believe 50%+ of Shawnigan residents still work in Cowichan, when there’s been such a massive outflow of people from Victoria into the CVRD in search of cheaper housing (since the early 2000s)?